Thoughts
The Chiefs own this division and are the best team in the NFL. It is hard to lay a -230 line for something that won’t pay out for 5 months but unfortunately, that is the best play here. If you want a longer shot to throw a coin at, I like the Broncos at +1800. They shouldn’t be listed this far in the cellar, they are a better team than the +1800 line indicates.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs deserve to be the heaviest favorite by far in this division. Sitting at -230 favorites for the AFC West, they are the heaviest favorite to win their own division in the NFL. The Chiefs have now won the AFC West every year since 2016 and have had at least 10 wins over that span. The scary part about this team is that their offense has vastly improved and we should expect to see a more explosive downfield passing attack. They can attack in the air at every level after they added WR Hollywood Brown through free agency and drafted WR Xavier Worthy in the 1st round of the draft. At his Pro Day back in 2019, Brown ran a 4.27 40-yard dash and during the combine this year in March, Worthy broke the record for the fastest 40-yard dash, pulling in a 4.21 time. The talent matches the speed of Brown and Worthy. They can both run crisp routes and take the top off the defense and are both bringing an element to this team that they lacked last year. What they had last year was Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice able to create after the catch yards underneath and closer to the line of scrimmage, which is what they rode to a Super Bowl Title. This is the best team in the NFL and everyone else is playing catch up.
LA Chargers
The first thing you should do this year is forget everything you know about the LA Chargers moving forward. Over the last three seasons, the Chargers offense has ranked towards the top in pass rate. In 2021 they had a pass rate of 66% (3rd), in 2022 it was 67% (2nd), and in 2023 it was 65% (6th). That is going to be flipped on its head this year with Jim Harbaugh taking over as Head Coach and Greg Roman coming in as his offensive coordinator. I implore you to check out my coaching breakdown of Greg Roman in the Fantasy Draft Guide for a more in-depth look at what to expect from Roman but long story short, a ton of running the ball. The Chargers have revamped their offensive line by taking Notre Dame OT Joe Alt fifth overall in the draft this past April. They also decided to trade WR Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears and cut WR Mike Williams (Jets). This team is going to run the living hell out of the ball with their committee backfield consisting of JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and 6th-round rookie
Kimani Vidal. Their defense isn’t quite there yet but coaching should help them to more wins than expected. No matter where Jim Harbaugh goes, he wins, sporting a 72% win rate from college and posting a 44-19 record with the San Francisco 49ers while flipping them to a Super Bowl contender almost overnight.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders will be tough week in and week out, playing hard-nosed defense and running the rock. Their biggest issue is they only have replacement-level QBs on their roster. While I expect the Raiders to have a Top 10, maybe Top 5 defense, it won’t be enough to overcome the shortcomings on offense. The offense is lean with a below-average offensive line. Their plan this year is to run the hell out of Zamir White, giving him 20+ touches a game. Under center, Minshew will do his best to make his magic but we’ll see what he can get done. Last year Minshew, in a much better situation, was able to muster 3,305 passing yards (6.7 YPA) in 16 games for the Colts, leading them to a 9-8 record. The Raiders are hoping he can recreate that magic for them while they play defense and try to control games. If this team was in the NFC, they would be in the Wild Card conversation but unfortunately, they are not, and I think there is a strong chance they finish in the cellar this year.
Denver Broncos
I’m growing increasingly interested in the Denver Broncos. Their win total sits at 5.5 and I think that’s too low. I also think having them at +1800 to win this division when they could easily finish second is a bit dramatic as well. As I mentioned above, overtaking the Chiefs is next to impossible but the value is here with the Denver Broncos if you are not playing the -230. It seems Sean Payton has found his guy at quarterback in Bo Nix, who the Broncos selected 12th overall in this year’s draft. Bo Nix has looked the part so far and Payton has been in his bag with play calling. Nix demonstrates the ability to process at a high level with immense accuracy through the intermediate to shallow parts of the field on all sides. Also, he has an added layer of athleticism that allows Sean Payton to use his entire playbook. You can tell when Payton talks about Nix how giddy he gets and I don’t even remember him talking like that about Drew Brees. Payton looks like a little kid out there and rejuvenated with this Broncos team. That leads me to a player who I wrote up as one of “My Guys” in the Draft Guide. I love Javonte Williams this year. I fully expect the Broncos to move on from third down RB, Samaje Perine as we near the start of the season. Williams is going to be a full blown three-down back while getting the goal line touches. This offense is going to run the hell out of the ball in a lot of creative ways while Payton opens up his playbook to create space on the outsideand move the chains. It is hard not to see the vision they are implementing and I’m here for it. I’m hesitant to say their defense is going to be good but all reports are that they are expected to exceed expectations. I’ll wait and see there but I’m bullish on this team to eclipse 5.5 wins.
Final Rankings Prediction
- Kansas City Chiefs (-230) – BET
- LA Chargers (+320)
- Denver Broncos (+1800) – BET
- Las Vegas Raiders (+900)
