Thoughts
The Texans are going to enter the season as the far-and-away favorite to win this division. Next, you have the Jaguars, the Colts, and finally the Titans. While the defending division champions have improved their roster, and I do think they should be considered the favorites to win this division, I’m not so sure they are the best odds on the board.
Houston Texans
In 2023, the Texans outperformed expectations on the back of rookie phenom, CJ Stroud and a solid defense. Houston narrowly won the division at 10-7 due to one specific play from the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18. Even while improving their team drastically and the Colts being without their fourth overall rookie QB most of the season, it all came down to that one play where third-string journeyman running back Tyler Goodson was unable to bring in a fourth-down pass from backup journeyman QB Gardner Minshew of the winner take all game. With all of that said, the majority of people just remember the Texans taking a huge step forward in 2023 under first-time Head Coach Demeco Ryans. They don’t remember how close the Texans were to losing the division to a backup QB. After that, to their credit, they went on to dismantle the Cleveland Browns at home in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, winning 45-14 before losing 34-10 in Baltimore the following week. On paper, both the Texans offense and defense have improved with the offense getting healthy while also adding Stefon Diggs to the WR room. On defense, they stay more or less the same while adding depth. Both sides will see players entering their second years in top-notch schemes from Demeco Ryans (defense) and Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik. Will it be enough to fend off the Colts? I think they should be favored but I’m not putting my money on it.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson may be fighting for his job after this season. After the Jaguars won the division title in 2022, they regressed to a 9-8 season, missing the playoffs in what is regarded as a largely disappointing year all around. Their offense regressed and many are now questioning whether Trevor Lawrence is as good as advertised, even though the Jaguars just inked him to a 5-year, $275M contract extension. The Jaguars did little to improve their defense or offense except revamping their WR room. They have moved on from perimeter WRs Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones replacing them with WR Gabe Davis and 1st round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. The Jaguars are expecting a strong positive correction in variance from Trevor Lawrence on offense in 2024. On defense, their biggest improvement comes from the coaching staff. The Jaguars fired the 2023
Defensive Coordinator Mike Caldwell in favor of 2023 Atlanta Falcons co-defensive Coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The Falcons as a whole outperformed expectations on defense so I do have some high hopes Nielsen improves the Jaguars defense, specifically through the air. We won’t be able to just hammer their pass defense week in and week out but I do think we have an edge in the middle of the field. Expect the Jaguars to be susceptible to slot WRs and TEs this year.
Indianapolis Colts
As I mentioned above, I think the Colts are underrated this year. Of this group of four teams, I like the Colts odds the most to win this division, and I think they should be considered up there with the Texans to win this division. As close as the Colts came last year, spending most of the season with QB Gardner Minshew under center, they are being discredited because they technically finished third in the division last year at 9-8. First-year Head Coach Shane Steichan made a strong, strong point last year by getting the Colts to a 9-8 record and on the cusp of a division title. On top of the Philadelphia Eagles offense completely spiraling without him, Steichan was able to produce above-expectation numbers with a backup journeyman at QB instead of his top rookie Anthony Richardson. The Colts ended up with the eleventh most points per game (23.3) on offense. This optimism comes down to Anthony Richardson’s second year mixed with improvements on defense (Laiatu Latu 15th overall) and AD Mitchell (52nd overall) through the draft, and a returning top-five offensive line. As long as their defense continues to play up to par, there is no reason to think the duo of Anthony Richardson and Shane Steichan mixed with an entire offseason (and season) of Jonathan Taylor can’t close the gap to the Houston Texans, a gap they almost edged them out in last year.
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans will enter 2024 with drastic changes across their coaching staff. The Titans front office ended up firing 2023 Head Coach Mike Vrabel this offseason and hiring Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan to replace him. Callahan brings with him a pass-first mentality and his father, legendary Offensive Line Coach Bill Callahan. What we can take away from the Titans offseason moves (adding Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard, and 7th overall pick JC Latham) is that the Titans want to air it out and try to win with their offense. While they are a work in progress, this means this team will encounter a lot of high scoring games and a high volume passing offense. On defense, first time Defensive Coordinator Dennard Wilson, has his hands full with a defense that is deficient in talent. I have low expectations forthis defense but high output expectations for the offense. I view the Titans as a year or two away from competing overall.
Final Rankings Prediction
- Houston Texans (+105)
- Indianapolis Colts (+310) – BET
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+275)
- Tennessee Titans (+1000)
