Week 4 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Bets
1pm
– Aaron Jones o57.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 3u – MGM
– Nico Collins o77.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– George Pickens o50.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– D’Andre Swift u42.5 Rushing Yards (-125): 3u – Draftkings
– Khalil Herbert 1+ TD (+550): 2u – Caesars
– Chase Brown o26.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel
– Zack Moss o54.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel
– Chuba Hubbard o60.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel
– Parlay: Nico Collins 100+ Receiving Yards, Aaron Jones 100+ Rushing/Receiving Yards, Chuba Hubbard 80+ Rushing Yards (+2457): 2u – Draftkings
4pm
– Demario Douglas o32.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – MGM
– Marvin Harrison Jr. o69.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– James Conner o68.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel
– James Conner 1+ TD (-125): 3u – Fanduel
– James Conner 2+ TD (+490): 2u – Fanduel
– James Conner 3+ TD (+2400): 1u – Fanduel
Note: Make sure to check the NE/SF game notes if you want to degen. I like that game and I think it has potential but I’m concerned both teams have moderate success rushing it, enough to turn it into a slow, lethargic game like TNF has been the last two weeks.
8pm
– TBD (See notes below)
Breakdown
1pm
Aaron Jones
REVENGE GAME! But in all seriousness, that is just one piece of the pie. I don’t like to target a play specifically because it is a “revenge game” (largely a myth) but it lines up here where it can be the cherry on top. The Vikings are using the piss out of Aaron Jones and I have concerns with him holding up but luckily those concerns don’t apply as much to one game necessities. In the two fully healthy games that Jones has played, he has seen 14+ carries in each game and accrued 94+ yards in both games, going for 5.4+ YPC in each of those two games with at least +18 yards Rushing Yards over Expected in each and compiled a +2 EPA/Rush and +3.5 EPA/Rush in those two games. The one game I have left out was Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers in which he left early to an injury but prove in Week 3 that it was a non-concern moving forward. He has had six runs of 10+ yards so far and has topped 15+ MPH on a whopping 10 runs so far through three games, a feat he only did 22 times in 11 games last year. This week the Vikings visit Green Bay in Aaron Jones’ old stomping grounds, a place he played for the first six years of his career and was sour on how they signed Josh Jacobs before releasing him into free agency, having him miss the initial surge of contracts for RBs. It was loosely reported he specifically chose Minnesota because it gave him the chance to burry Green Bay but that is neither here nor there. The Packers run defense has been poor this year thus far. They have given up the 9th most rushing yards per play (4.7), 5th highest Rush Yards over Expected per attempt (+.97), and the 6th highest Yards After Contact per attempt (3.44). Despite shutting down the hapless Tennessee Titans in Week 3, the Packers gave up rushing yardage totals of 109 to Saquon Barkley in Week 1 and 103 to Jonathan Taylor in Week 2. This is my favorite target for a ladder on the day next to Saquon Barkley if Vita Vea misses (he is projected to play). It is rare we get a mixture of a great player, great matchup, and a revenge game in one so I’ll be attacking it. Jones will be lowering his head and fighting for a few more yards just a bit more in this one.
Nico Collins
Nico is set up to absolutely smash this week. It is looking more and more like Tank Dell is going to miss this game and the matchup is a juicy one. With the Texans offense and CJ Stroud looking to get right, the Jaguars pass defense is ripe for destroying. The Jaguars are in a downward spiral and their Head Coach’s job is hanging by a threat. The Jags defense is getting gashed week in and week out. Their Pass Defense is allowing the 3rd most pass yards per game (252.3), 5th most Pass Yards Per Play (7.1), 4th most pass yards per game to perimeter WRs (138.4), and they’re allowing the 3rd highest EPA/Pass overall (+.19) and 5th highest EPA/Pass to perimeter WRs (+.46). In their three games the Jaguars have allowed four WRs to top 72 receiving yards in a game and this includes players like Jerry Jeudy (73+ and Khalil Shakir (72) with guys like Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle both going for over 100 against them. In his first three games Nico has seen 8+ targets in all three, accruing at least 86 yards in all three with a +14.7 Receiving EPA and an average separation of 3.1 per route. Coupled with Nico Collins emerging as the ipso facto alpha WR1 on the Texans with Stefon Diggs primarily manning the underneath stuff out of the slot AND the Texans being at home on the turf, Nico is going to explode here.
George Pickens
Pickens is a beast, flat out. He is really coming into his own as a WR1 alpha and it is translating. Over the first three games of the season he has caught 13 of his 18 targets for 171 yards with a 13.2 Yards/Rec, 72.2% catch rate and a ridiculous 11.8% catch rate over expected and an insane 10.7 Rec EPA with at least 2.7 yards of separation in each of the three games. This week Pickens plays against a Colts secondary that has allowed at least one primarily perimeter WR to gain 62+ receiving yards in each of the first three games including four overall and two of them topping 112+ receiving yards. The Colts are allowing the 2nd most yards per game to perimeter WRs at 148.3 yards per game while allowing the 3rd highest EPA/Pass (+.53) to outside WRs. The reason this isn’t a full fledge ladder is because I’m concerned at the rate of this game from both the Colts pushing up the score and the Steelers having a lethargic run based offense that limits Pickens’ chances to really pop. Throwing deep to the edges is honestly something Fields is really good at and even though I’m concerned overall for Pickens hitting 100+, he has seven targets in two of the three games with the lone game not hitting it being Week 2 when the Broncos dominated time of possession and Surtain covered Pickens. Pickens has game breaking talent and can take any deep pass to the house any play but I’m aiming for just 51 in this one and I’ll be happy with it.
D’Andre Swift
I’ll keep this one short. Anyone who has been in chat knows I think Swift is awful at running the football and it finally came to a head last week. In the first two games he had a 68% and 67% snap share but that fell to 52% in Week 3 with Roschon Johnson taking 38% of the team’s snaps. Over the first two weeks Swift had a 62% rush share and that also dropped to 46% in Week 3 with Roschon taking 29% of the attempts. In Swift’s first three games combined he is only averaging 22.6 rush yards per game (never topped 30) at 1.8 YPC with -83 rush yards over expect and averaging -2.4 rush yards over expected per attempt with a -21 Rush EPA (LOL) on the year. Moving forward they’re heavy reports that the Bears are going to give Roschon an extended look this week against the Rams. Mix this with the fact that Swift is a terrible runner of the football, I find it hard to believe he tops 40 this week.
Khalil Herbert
This really comes down to the fact Shane Waldron confirmed Herbert remains the goal line, short yardage back and praised him for that. On top of that, the Rams defense is atrocious. Their rush defense ranks towards the bottom in a lot of categories allowing the 3rd most rush yards per game (177), giving up the 3rd most EPA/Rush (+.12), and allowing the 5th most Rush Yards Per Play (5.1). I’ll take my stab at the player with 4 goal line rushes through three games at a +550 every single week.
Bengals Backfield
Outside of the Vegas Raiders, the first two opponents against the Carolina panthers have had no issues running it down the Panthers throats. In Week 1 we saw the Saints backfield (Kamara and Williams) combine for 26 carries for 121 rushing yards. In Week 2 the Chargers backfield (JK and Gus) combined for 35 carries for 190 rushing yards. On the year the Panthers bring to the table a 2.04 Yards Before Contact per attempt allowed which is most in the NFL while allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game at 151.3 (even though they gave up 41 last week), and the 9th highest rush yards per play at 4.7. On the flip side, the Bengals are stubborn. Regardless of score (4.5 favorites in this one) the Bengals are going to commit to the run. Last week in a script they were losing most of the game we still saw the Bengals run the ball 19 times for a combined 120 rushing yards between Moss and Brown because it was working. Moss saw 12 of the 19 carries for 58 rushing yards and Brown saw seven of the carries for 62 rushing yards. I like Brown’s line a bit more than Moss here because of the explosiveness he has shown mixed with the Panthers being driven off the ball consistently. Over the last two games Brown has carried the ball 11 times for 93 rushing yards, exceeding 31+ in each of the games with a +4.1 EPA/Rush with five runs 10+ or longer while hitting 15+ MPH on four of the 11 carries. Moss is toting the rock 59% of the time in this backfield and has seen at least nine carries in each of the games this year with 12 in each of the last two. As long as the Panthers don’t completely blow the Bengals out (unlikely) we should see 5+ carries for Brown and 10+ carries for Moss.
Chuba Hubbard
The Bengals rush defense is ass. Through three games they have allowed the 5th highest Yards After Contact per attempt at 3.52, the 6th highest Rush Yards Over Expected per attempt at +.82, the 7th most rushing yards per game at 142.3, and currently hold the 5th highest EPA/Rush allowed at +.10. Last week we saw the Panthers offense take off with Andy Dalton and there is no reason to believe that would stop here. Because the Panthers were in the game and having success it let Chuba churn out 21 carries for 114 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) with 33 rushing yards over expected (+1.6/att) and finish with a +3.2 EPA/Rush. Chuba had three runs of 10+ yards and broke 15+ MPH four times. Chuba has been very good this year given the situation and was even able to break off 64 yards rushing in Week 2’s blowout loss to the Chargers on only 10 rush attempts. As I mentioned above, I don’t expect either team to blow the other out in this game and I think Chuba gets another 15+ carry game putting him in a prime spot to break off over 61 rushing yards here.
4pm
Demario Douglas
I’m kind of confused by this line. I guess the books just haven’t caught up with Douglas? The Patriots raved about him all pre-season. They rave about team first and ego aside. He starts the season with three targets, catching two for 12 yards in Week 1 but the Patriots win, so he doesn’t say anything. In Week 2, he didn’t even see a target against the seahawks! After the game he threw a WR1 hissy fit and refused to talk to reporters and bitched about it. He knows he is the WR1 of this team and acted like it. Week 3 against the vaunted Jets pass D? NINE (!) targets, catching seven of them for 69 scoreless yards with a +1.8 Receiving EPA and 28 yards of YAC. He has averaged 4.3 yards of separation on his targets with a 77.8% catch rate. You can go either way with this one, attacking with his receptions or his yards but I prefer his yards as his receptions sit in that no mans land of juiced up 2.5 or plus money at 3.5. I’d rather take 32.5 receiving yards. His matchup this week pushes the passing offense to the slot. Historically that has been the philosophy of this defense, regardless of who was coaching it (I’m sure it stems from Shanahan). This year so far it stands true, as they have allowed the 5th most yards per game to opposing slot WRs (100.3) and overall have allowed the 3rd most pass yards per play (7.3). They have been burned by guys like Allen Lazard (6/89/2), Garrett Wilson (6/60/0), Justin Jefferson (4/133/1), Jalen Nailor (3/54/1), and Tutu Atwell (4/93/0). Even guys like Tyler Johnson (3/20) and Jordan Whittington (3/28) had solid games for players who barely play. If San Francisco does in fact blow the Patriots out they will likely have to abandon the run and use quick hitting passes to save them from the pass rush and if the middle of the field is open, Douglas will benefit time and time again in this one.
Marvin Harrison
I almost went with Kyler Murray here to have over 232.5 Passing Yards but I’m deciding to go with Marvin Harrision given Trey McBride likely misses this game. There is also nothing standing in your way of playing Michael Wilson to have over 40.5 Receiving Yards but I’m sticking with the 4th overall rookie with the expectation the Cardinals feed him the rock on designed plays. I’ve attacked this Washington pass defense for roughly the past 15 weeks of NFL football and this week is no different. They are bad at basically everything and I’m going to attack both with a WR and James Conner. First, they have allowed the 2nd most passing yards per game (255.7) this year, 2nd most Pass Yards Per Play (7.7), have allowed the highest EPA/Pass (+.47), have given up the most EPA/Pass to opposing slot WRs (+.79), are allowing the 4th most passing yards to opposing slot WRs per game (102), and the 9th most yards per game to perimeter WRs (112). Over the last two games Harrison has seen a solid 15 targets, catching nine of them for 194 yards and three scores. It doesn’t matter if Harrison lines up in the slot or out wide, he is going to be open and Kyler Murray is going to be targeting him, and he is going to be open.
James Conner
To directly piggyback on how bad the Washington Commanders defense has been, they are giving up the 4th highest Rush Yards Per Plays (5.1) and 4th highest Yards Before Contact per attempt (2). The Cardinals always get James Conner involved early and often. If we remove the Week 3 game against the vaunted Lions Run Defense (no one runs on them), Conner has seen 37 rushes (Weeks 1 and 2) and ran for 172 yards with five runs over 10+ yards and hit 15+ MPH on 10 of those 37 carries. The Cardinals are 3.5 point home favorites and I suspect Jonathan Gannon won’t be walked all over by Kliff Kingsbury schematically like Vic Fangio was in Week 3. The only thing holding back Conner and Harrison would be if the Commanders chewed up game clock on offense and destroyed this game.
8pm
Notes
I’m going to put some notes here so everyone can gauge how I’ll be viewing the 8pm game. I like to have a feel for how the day is going before I put out bets for 8pm and I like to have them closer to lock but this takes away the breakdown factor. To be blunt, I like the Bills air game and Ravens run game in this one. I think both offense’s strengths matchup well against the opposing defense’s weaknesses.
– BAL allowing 291.7 Pass Yards Per Game (Most in the NFL)
– BAL allowing 6.9 Pass Yards Per Play (6th most in the NFL)
– BAL allowing +.04 EPA/Pass (10th most in the NFL)
– BAL allowing 103.3 Yards Per Game to opposing slot WRs (3rd most in the NFL)
– BAL allowing 129 Yards Per Game to opposing perimeter WRs (5th most in the NFL)
– BUF allowing 4.7 Rush Yards Per Game (Tied for 9th most in the NFL)
– BUF allowing +.08 EPA/Rush (7th most in the NFL)
Notes
MIN +2.5 @ GB – u43.5
Divisional games are always tough. Stop sleeping on Minnesota, I’ll take the points in what will be a close game in Jordan Love’s return
– Aaron Jones o82.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards: Packers give up 5th most REC yards to backs so far this year, 4th highest Pass YPP (8.2), +.07 EPA/Pass to RBs, and +54 (2nd most) YACOE to RBs on receptions
– Aaron Jones 1+ TD: He is going to score, revenge game.
– Jordan Love u242.5 Passing Yards: Likely limited mobility, 1st game back from injury. Looked awful W1. Vikings allowing 7th fewest Pass YPP (5.2) and 7th best EPA/Pass (-.24)
– Jayden Reed over Rushing Yards: I can’t find it anywhere. They may be tired of bleeding money on it. He has 19+ (two games 33+) rushing yards in each game this year.
TD Scorers: Justin Jefferson (-115), Aaron Jones (+135), Jayden Reed (+170), Christian Watson (+195), Jalen Nailor (+270), Sam Darnold (+360)
NO @ ATL -1.5 – u42
Atlanta likely wins this divisional game at home. The Saints OL is decimated and the Falcons could easily be 3-0. I’m still not convinced the Saints are magically a good team.
– Drake London o59.5 Receiving Yards: Saints allowing 8th most Pass YPG (236), 7th most to perimeter WRs (118.3). London 16 targets / 12 Receptions (6/ea) L2 games.
– Alvin Kamara o65.5 Rushing Yards: I don’t trust the OL right now but Atlanta has given up 150.3 Rush YPG (6th most) and has the 8th highest EPA/Rush (+.01) allowed.
– Darnell Mooney o39.5 Receiving Yards: His route concepts with how Atlanta uses him matches up well with what Saints are bad with. I don’t care for this stat too much but it’s worth mentioning. Bigger stat is that Mooney has 15 targets the last two games and 11 receptions and reports are that Kirk “Trusts Mooney with his life”.
TD Scorers: Bijan Robinson (-140), Alvin Kamara (-130), Drake London (+180), Darnell Mooney (+240), ATL DST (+425)
DEN +7.5 @ NYJ – u38.5
The Broncos are going to be a tough out for anyone and the Jets offense isn’t explosive enough to pull away so I’ll take the points. To be honest, both defenses are playing well. Both offenses are slow and methodical. I’m just avoiding this game.
– Tyler Badie over Rushing Yards: Not listed. Probably won’t be. But he looked good in W3 in garbage time after Denver sealed the game up. This backfield is wide open.
TD Scorers: Breece Hall (-135), Mike Williams (+210), Allen Lazard (+255), Tyler Conklin (+310), Cortland Sutton (+320), Bo Nix (+340), Greg Dulcich (+475), Tyler Badie (+700)
JAX @ HOU -7 – o45.5
Doug Pederson may not make it back to Jacksonville after the Texans thrash the Jaguars. Anything for the Texans offense is in play here. They are going to demolish the Jaguars.
– Cam Akers Rushing: Not up yet since Mixon and Pierce aren’t officially out but Jaguars have solid stats against RBs, don’t think it is relevant. When you’re down 20+ teams like the Texans will run it down your throat and this is an Akers script (last week wasn’t).
– Stefon Diggs o61 Receiving Yards: With Tank Dell out I think we see more 2WR sets and tight formations off play action, a lot like 2023 for this Texans offense. See above under Nico Collins why this is a good matchup.
– Brian Thomas o45.5 Receiving Yards: They targeted him 9 times last week in their 47-10 loss. Texans pass D is solid but can’t ignore 9 targets in what I think is a similar gameflow.
TD Scorers: Cam Akers (-130), Nico Collins (-130), Stefon Diggs (+110), Dalton Schultz (+205), Brian Thomas Jr. (+220), HOU DST (+400)
PIT @ IND +2 – o40
There is likely going to be more offense in this game than people expect. I expect good games from both Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson.
– Michael Pittman u45.5 Receiving Yards: This should be an auto smash at this point to be honest. This may become an official play come Sunday morning.
– George Pickens 110+ Receiving Yards: He’s due. I want to, the matchup is there, but I don’t trust Arthur Smith or the pass volume. But he is due.
TD Scorers: Jonathan Taylor (+100), Justin Fields (+155), George Pickens (+200), Cordarrelle Patterson (+310), Josh Downs (+330), PIT DST (+400)
PHI @ TB +2.5 – u45
Philly has been unimpressive thus far even though they are 2-1. Bucs get right here and win.
– Saquon Barkley o75.5 Rushing Yards: He is getting the volume and “on paper” the matchup is there. However, the Bucs are getting back some key pieces this week, including key run stopper, DT Vita Vea.
– Rachaad White o35.5 Rushing Yards: White has been a miserable runner lately which is why I’m not risking y’alls units on him but I think he gets there this week. So far this year the Eagles are giving up the 9th most rush yards per game (134.7), 3rd most rush yards per play (5.2), 4th highest RYOE/Att (+1.06), and the 4th most YACo/Att (3.58). The matchup is there, the trust isn’t.
– Chris Godwin o65.5 Receiving Yards: The matchup is there, Eagles giving up the 6th most YPG to opposing Slot WRs but I don’t like it enough to target Godwin again this week. This game likely underwhelms.
TD Scorers: Saquon Barkley (-145), Rachaad White (+135), Mike Evans (+140), Chris Godwin (+195), Johnny Wilson (+425), TB DST (+475), Grant Calcaterra (+700)
CIN @ CAR +4.5 – o48
I can’t bet on Cincinnati to win a game right now let alone cover 4.5. Carolina looks like a competent team now that Bryce Young isn’t playing QB.
– Tee Higgins o52.5 Receiving Yards: No real reason to bet Higgins over Chase but the Panthers have given up the 6th most receiving yards to Perimeter WRs (118.7) this year. Higgins is due for a game after Chase went off last week, my hunch is Burrow spreads it to Higgins this week.
– Diontae Johnson o5.5 Receptions: He is a beast and will see 10 targets from Dalton in this one. It is that simple, no real analysis behind it except the Bengals are allowing the 4th highest EPA/Pass this year.
TD Scorers: Zack Moss (-145), Chuba Hubbard (-130), Tee Higgins (+195), Diontae Johnson (+195), Zavier Leggette (+290), Mike Gesicki (+295), Erick All (+500), Jalen Coker (+950)
LAR @ CHI -3 – u41
I guess Chicago covers? I don’t have a great read here. The Bears haven’t shown the ability to take advantage of what the Rams suck at (everyone) on defense. I don’t trust the Rams on the road IN Chicago against that defense. I expect a boring, low scoring game.
– Roschon Johnson o31.5 Rushing Yards: Went over why this is unofficial in chat. We have a great number on Swift’s under and a +550 line on Herbert scoring a TD. I have a hard time trusting Shane Waldron so I can’t make this one official after Herbert was a dud in Week 3.
TD Scorers: Kyren Williams (-105), DJ Moore (+165), Roschon Johnson (+200), Rome Odunze (+250), Colby Parkinson (+290), Tutu Atwell (+350), Khalil Herbert (+450)
WAS @ ARI -3.5 – o50.5
I think Arizona covers. Daniels comes back down to earth a bit here and Gannon makes his life hell. He’ll make them dink and dunk and his defense will actually tackle.
– Michael Wilson o44.5 Receiving Yards: Just went with the star rookie WR over him. Good spot and had good usage last week.
TD Scorers: James Conner (-130), Marvin Harrison (-120), Brian Robinson Jr. (+115), Michael Wilson (+185), ARI DST (+450), Noah Brown (+390)
NE +10 @ SF – u39.5
It is hard not to take the points when a game total is 39.5 and the spread is double digits. I think with Kittle back Mason has a lot more success than he did in Week 3 but the 49ers have been unable to stop the run thus far, the Patriots strength. They probably keep it frustratingly close.
– Brock Purdy o232.5 Passing Yards: Almost made it official, love Purdy here, don’t like Aiyuk. Another Jennings game. NE allowing 244.3 Pass YPG (6th highest) and +.07 EPA/Pass (6th highest)
– Jordan Mason o78.5 Rushing Yards: No reason other than he is a beast and Kittle is back blocking for him. Kittle changes the whole dynamic of this ground game.
– Brandon Aiyuk u62.5 Receiving Yards: Hasn’t hit it yet this year, slow start from the hold out which was expected. Christian Gonzalez is probably the best shutdown corner alive right now.
– Rhamondre Stevenson o56.5 Rushing Yards: Solid matchup, SF giving up +.11 EPA/Rush (4th highest) and 1.69 YBCo/Att (7th highest). Hard to trust anything in this Patriots offense after last week.
– Antonio Gibson o18.5 Rushing Yards: This may become an official play by Sunday morning, or even Sunday afternoon closer to lock, or even live. Keep an eye on it.
TD Scorers: Jordan Mason (-205), George Kittle (+135), Rhamondre Stevenson (+150), Hunter Henry (+390), Brock Purdy (+425), Austin Hooper (+650)
KC @ LAC +8.5 – o39
Divisional game at home for the underdog with a 8.5 spread? I’ll take the points 100% of the time, especially with a well coached team under Jim Harbaugh.
– JK Dobbins o53.5 Rushing Yards: Good matchup on paper but Spags always changes his defense to match the opposition. With Heinicke under center? No thanks.
– Rashee Rice o7.5 Receptions: This isn’t even being offered on DK, I had to look elsewhere. No matchup reason, just the fact they are peppering him at an insane rate. It is hard to see this rate keeping up but he has a 34% target share and is averaging 9.67 targets a game with 8 receptions a game, 7+ in two of the three games. I need more to officially bet it.
TD Scorers: Carson Steele (+140), Travis Kelce (+155), Xavier Worthy (+180), Gus Edwards (+320), Quentin Johnston (+310)
CLE +1 @ LV – u37
Who knows. I’ve heard the Raiders have star plays sitting out because they’re tired of Antonio Pierce. The Browns are missing half their offensive line but Deshaun Watson sucks. Flip a coin and avoid this utterly boring shit show excuse of an NFL game.
– None, don’t even try.
TD Scorers: CLE DST (+370), LV DST (+380), No Touchdown Scorer (+3500)
BUF @ BAL -2.5 – u46.5
See above under “8pm”
– TBD Sunday afternoon
TD Scorers: Derrick Henry (-150), Josh Allen (+130), James Cook (+140), Mark Andrews (+320), Isaiah Likely (+330), Mack Hollins (+450), Dawson Knox (+500)
