Week 5 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +12.57 Betting Results (2024)
Bets
9:30am
– Breece Hall o3.5 Receptions (-165): 3u – MGM
– Ty Chandler o22.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 2u – Fanduel
1pm
– Brian Thomas o50.5 Receiving Yards (-135): 3u – MGM
– Brian Thomas 1+ TD (+175): 1u – Draftkings
– Trevor Lawrence o1.5 Passing TDs (-105): 3u – Draftkings
– Erick All o2.5 Receptions (+110): 2u – Fanduel
– Trevor Lawrence 3+ Passing TDs (+400): 1u – Draftkings
– Stefon Diggs 1+ TD (+175): 1u – Caesars
– TBD: Colts Passing Attack
4pm
– Kenneth Walker o68.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 10u – Draftkings
– Kenneth Walker 100+ Rushing Yards (+350): 2u – Draftkings
– Kenneth Walker 110+ Rushing Yards (+500): 2u – Draftkings
– Kenneth Walker 120+ Rushing Yards (+800): 5u – Draftkings
– SEA -6.5 (-110): 3u – Fanduel
– Dontayvion Wicks o50.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Fanduel
– Dontayvion Wicks 100+ Receiving Yards (+700): 1u – Draftkings
– Dontayvion Wicks 110+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 1u – Draftkings
– Jordan Love o258.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
8pm
– TBD
Breakdown
9:30am
Breece Hall
There has been a lot of chatter with Breece Hall lately and the emergence of Braelon Allen but I think we get a healthy dose of Hall in this one from both the air and the ground. I’m choosing to go with receptions because that is where the Vikings are the most susceptible. Opposing teams have targeted RBs six times per game this year which ranks 5th highest in the NFL with opposing backs coming down with 4.8 of those targets, 12th highest in the NFL. Breece has been Rodgers’ security blanket all year long, seeing ridiculous target shares and I’m a little irritated with myself for not noticing it sooner. Breece has a HEALTHY 24% target per route run on the year with a 61% route participation resulting ultimately in a 18% target share. He has at least four targets in every game this year and 6+ in two of the four games played so far. There will be 3-4 designed pass plays to Breece alone to mix with any sort of hurry up offense we see from the Jets resulting in likely another reception or two. Week 4 was the first game this year that Breece didn’t have at least four snags in a game and I fully expect 5+ targets in this one.
Ty Chandler
Maybe I’m getting a little cute here and forcing a play to have something in the London game but I don’t think so. Over the last two games Ty Chandler has only carried the ball 10 times for a total of 18 yards (-3.1 and -2.5 Rush EPAs) which is a far cry from his Week 2 performance where he carried the rock 10 times within itself for 82 rushing yards (+4 Rush EPA). We saw Chandler go from 32% of the team’s rush attempts in Week 1 to 45% in Week 2 (Jones missed the 4Q) and then saw it fall to 25% in Week 3 and 10% in Week 4. What needs to be considered here are two things. In Week 3, Jones was the hot hand (he’s better, that’s expected) and in Week 4 the Vikings played the Packers so this was a revenge game for Jones, something Kevin O’Connell spoke about and didn’t shy away from the fact they rode Jones against his former team. With all of that, I’m looping back to Weeks 1 and 2 and everything KOC talked about in the pre season, mentioning they can’t have a full blown workhorse RB and they have two talented backs in this backfield. They WANT to split it up and with Jones having 41 rush attempts over the last two weeks (48 total touches), this is a prime spot to shed some workload and get Ty Chandler some work with a 60/40ish, maybe 65/35ish split. The Jets run D has been susceptible and they have had a hard time stuffing opposing offenses. So far, they have allowed the 12th most Rushing Yards Per Game (128.5), 6th most Rushing Plays of 10+ Yards (17), and the 9th most YACo/Att (3.33). In Week 1 Jordan Mason absolutely thrashed them for 147 rushing yards on 28 carries, Week 2 Pollard had consistent success running it 17 times for 62 yards with even Spears getting some volume going 6/20. In Week 3 we all remember the abysmal Patriots game where they refused to run but Antonio Gibson got there late with a 5/29 line as a backup RB getting his rushing prop for us. In Week 4 both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin got him with Williams carrying it 16 times for 77 rushing yards and McLaughlin totting it nine times for 46 rushing yards. I expect a similar split and success rate from a much better Vikings offense, getting Jones around 15-18 carries and Chandler in that 6-8 range.
1pm
Brian Thomas & Trevor Lawrence
Thomas has shown out extremely well as a rookie and if it weren’t for Trevor Lawrence’s miss cues, he would have an even better showing so far. He has caught 17 of his 26 passes for 275 yards and two scores with a +9.3 Rec EPA and +18 YACOE and a generous 12.6 ADOT. This is all with Lawrence missing him multiple times with Thomas either getting open himself or Pederson scheming him open. He has two games of 86+ but has yet to top 100 and I think he can get there in this one. The Colts are perceived to have a bad run defense because they have allowed quantity to the ground game and have allowed the 2nd most rush yards per game (164.8) but their per play metrics indicate they are more middle of the pack and teams early in the season just ran the piss out of the ball against them and they actually have the 7th best EPA/Rush (-.14) allowed. However, their pass defense, as I’ve mentioned the last couple of weeks, is not good. They are allowing the 7th most pass yards per game (235), 10th worst EPA/Pass (-.01) and they specifically get beat on the perimeter, which is where Brian Thomas plays. To perimeter WRs they have allowed the 4th most yards per game so far to perimeter WRs (134.3) and are tied with the 4th worst EPA/Pass to perimeter WRs (+.41). Let’s take this play a step further and also mention that BOTH Trevor Lawrence (10/6) and Brian Thomas (10/8) have birthdays this weekend with Lawrence falling on Sunday and Thomas two days later. Lawrence is right there, on film he is playing well and just barely missing passes it is all right there at his fingertips. Putting this all together with the gut feeling the Jaguars turn it around here and the Jaguars having their backs against the wall at home in a divisional game, I’ll lay my coin on this passing attack expecting Lawrence to have a good game and Brian Thomas to be the main benefactor.
Colts Passing Attack
I’m going to go over the matchup because we don’t know who is starting yet for the Colts and this is predicated on Joe Flacco facing this atrocious Jaguars pass defense. The Jags have given up the 2nd most passing yards per game (272.8) and the 3rd highest EPA/Pass (+.22). They have allowed the most yards per game to perimeter WRs (152), the 5th highest EPA/Pass to slot WRs (+.35), and have even allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing RBs (38.3) per game. The only QB to not hit at least 263 (Josh Allen had the 263 on only 30 attempts and had four TDs) would be Deshaun Watson in Week 2, and Watson fucking sucks. In Week 1 Tua had 338 on 37 attempts and CJ Stroud in Week 4 had 345 on 40 attempts. With that we saw Tyreek Hill go 12/7/130/1 and Jaylen Waddle go 5/5/109/0 in Week 1, Jerry Jeudy 6/5/73/0 in Week 2, Khalil Shakir go 6/6/72/1 in Week 3 and Nico Collins go 15/12/151/1 in Week 4 with Stefon Diggs adding 9/5/69/0 as well with a few costly drops. With the assumption Joe Flacco is under center, Michael Pittman is my favorite of this group and I’ll be playing both Flacco’s passing and Pittman’s receiving depending on the lines, even alting them both up paired with Kenneth Walker.
Erick All
Erick All is the next major TE to come out of Iowa. He has come on recently, catching four balls in four straight games. This coaching staff loves him. He has grown to see a 30% route participation the last three games with a whopping 34% target per route run and 12% target rate overall. All of his 12 targets over this span have been “catchable” targets with a low ADOT of 2.2. They’re reports that the Bengals want to get All more involved moving forward and this is the prime spot to do it. Opposing teams are targeting their TEs against the Ravens at the 4th highest rate (20% TPRR) in the NFL resulting in TEs seeing the most targets in the NFL against the Ravens with 9.6 targets per game and 7.2 receptions per game. I’ll take my chances at plus odds with All going for four in a row topping 3 receptions.
Stefon Diggs
Revenge game. To be honest there isn’t much else to put behind a Diggs play other than that. The game total is 47 and the Bills pass defense is solid. They’ve only given up five passing TDs so far this year through four games but this is mainly because they just get gashed on the ground. Solid total, neutral matchup and a pissed off Stefon Diggs. I’ll take that stab, stats aside, any day of the week.
4pm
KENNETH FUCKING WALKER
Kenneth Walker is not only my favorite play of the week but he is my favorite play thus far this year and the only thing in his way of not smashing this game is an injury. Walker is balling out so far this year in the two games he has played against some very, very good run defenses. In Week 1 he toted the rock 20 times for 103 yards and a score with a +1.8 EPA/Rush and three runs over 10+ with hitting 15+ MPH twice and 3.4 YACo/Att. In Week 4 he ran the ball 12 times for 80 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and THREE fucking scores against the vaunted Detroit Lions defense. He ended with a +2.1 Rush EPA, +3.4 RYOE/Att, 2.8 YACo/Att, three runs of 10+ yards, SIX runs (fucking 50%!) of 15+ MPH and two runs of 20+ MPH. He is a big play waiting to happen and he is going to have the game script in this one. In Week 1, he took 63% of the rush attempts and in Week 4, coming off an injury after missing Weeks 2 and 3, he immediately was thrusted into a bulk share workload, taking 75% of the team’s rush attempts. He is a true bell cow RB1 and this week the matchup is juicy. The Seahawks are going to enter as 6-point home favorites against a Giants team that has to travel across the country. Through the first month of the season the Giants have allowed 4.7 Rush Yards Per Play (9th), 18 (!) Rushes of 10+ yards (4th), +1.2 Rushing Yards Over Expected per rush (2nd), and 3.64 Yards After Contact per rush (3rd). In Week 1 Aaron Jones ran the ball 14 times for 94 rushing yards and in Week 2 Brian Robinson ran the ball 17 times for 133 yards. Walker is arguably the best pure rusher in the NFL in terms of big play ability and breaking games with his abilities. The Giants would have even worse numbers against opposing ground games if they didn’t play the Browns (Ford – 10/37) and the Cowboys (Dowdle – 11/46) in Weeks 3 and 4. Walker is going off this week.
Seattle
Honestly, most of it stems from the Kenneth Walker write-up above. We are going to see a Seahawks team run it down the fucking throat of a Giants team that will have to travel across the country into one of the hardest places to play in the NFL. The Giants are going to be fighting an uphill battle from the jump as they will be without star rookie WR, Malik Nabers, for this game. They will need to be nearly perfect to simply stay in this game. Seattle is better coached across the board than the New York Giants and I’m having a hard time finding out how the Giants keep it close without every single random bounce going their way.
Jordan Love & Dontayvion Wicks
The Rams defense is abysmal and usually I would target Wicks here (and I may still) or Jayden Reed but I think the best path is to combine them all and just go with Jordan Love. So far this season, the Rams are allowing the 2nd highest EPA/Pass (+.27), highest Pass Yards Per Play (8.1), 3rd most Pass TDs (8), 2nd most Pass Yards Per Game (67.8), 8th most Pass Yards Intermediate (10-19 yards) per game (70.8) and 5th most Pass Yards Per Play on passes 20+ yards down the field. This loops into the WRs just absolutely eating against the Rams, specifically outside. The Rams have allowed the 3rd most Yards Per Game to Perimeter WRs (135.3) and the 4th highest EPA/Pass at (+.48) to those perimeter WRs. They have also allowed the most Rush Yards Per Game (165.5), 6th highest Rush Yards Per Play (5), 7th highest Yards Before Contact per Attempt (1.83), and the 4th highest EPA/Rush (+.10). I mean this defense sucks across the board. I fully expect the Packers to have no issues moving the ball downfield and all they do is pass deep, which fits in perfectly with how the Rams suck on defense. As long as the Rams can keep pace, and I expect them to as the Packers defense isn’t good either, this game is going to get out of control. If the Rams go up? Love could throw for over 400.
8pm
The Steelers notoriously perform poorly against the slot and it seems like we’re on our way for another year of that. So far this year they have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to the slot per game (84) and this just so happens to be where Lamn frequents. To be honest, the Cowboys do a decent job of getting Lamb in favorable matchups overall but in the base offense, Lamb mans the slot. He has a 56.4% snap rate in the slot and that includes Week 4 where he played a season high 46.4% out wide because that’s where the Giants were weak. So for this game, Lamb is a spot I’m eying up as the day progresses on Sunday. Also, Hunter Kuepke is a player I’ll be eying live and almost immediately after the game starts if I don’t have him pre game. We’ve been trying to figure out when Rico takes over the backfield from Zeke and worried about Deuce Vaughn stealing snaps but it turns out that Hunter Luepke may be the RB we target in Dallas. Low key, Luepke took the most snaps in the Cowboys backfield in Week 4 in a game script that they were winning with a 49% snap share. Wit that, he took his first two NFL carries and continues to get work in the air game. He had a 46% route participation and 15% target per route run. Over the last two games in all he has five targets, 43% snap rate, 35% route participation and 17% target per route run. The Steelers aren’t a team typically we want to target with backfield targets given opposing offenses target their RBs against the Steelers the 3rd fewest in the NFL per game (3.6) however the Steelers have allowed those backs to catch every single target so far. I’ll be eyeing it live and I do expect the Steelers to win a slow methodical game, throwing the Cowboys off their game and if they are in a situation they have to sling it, I’ll be taking a stab at Luepke receptions.
Notes
NYJ @ MIN – 2.5 – u40.5
I hate London games. This is a coin flip. I can’t bet against the Vikings right now. I’ll sit this game out for the most part and focus on the normal slate of games and my normal Sunday schedule.
– Garrett Wilson o54.5 Receiving Yards: Squeaky Wheel. MIN allows 2nd most YPG to perimeter WRs (147) but that’s mainly to HOU/GB playing from behind the last two weeks as opposed to it being a plus matchup for Wilson. Can’t get there beyond narrative based.
TD Scorers: Aaron Jones (-105), Justin Jefferson (+100), Breece Hall (+110), Braelon Allen (+250), Allen Lazard (+320), Tyler Conklin (+390), Jalen Nailor (+425), Josh Oliver (+800)
BAL @ CIN +2.5 – u51
When it’s close I always go with the home team in divisional games. I’d rather just not bet this game in terms of gamelines.
– Derrick Henry o83.5 Rushing Yards: Just too high for my liking, I’d rather play Lamar live or wait to see how the 1Q plays out and hit Justice Hill props. Ball spread around too much and divisional games get weird. CIN allowing +.08 EPA/Rush (5th highest), +1.02 RYOE/Att (4th highest), and 4.38 YACo/Att (8th highest). Great matchup for Henry and Lamar.
– Lamar Jackson o55.5 Rushing Yards: Same as Henry.
– Ja’Marr Chase o72.5 Receiving Yards: Ravens looked great against the Bills in Week 4 so I’m waiting and seeing. As I mentioned, these games get weird between the Ravens and Bengals. Ravens allowing 114.3 YPG to perimeter WR (8th most), 95.5 YPG to Slot WR (5th most) and 257.5 Pass YPG (4th) to opposing QBs.
– Andrei Iosivas o24.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Chase.
TD Scorers: Derrick Henry (-200), Ja’Marr Chase (+105), Mark Andrews (+225), Isaiah Likely (+225), Mike Gesicki (+340), Erick All (+450)
CLE @ WAS -3 – o44.5
Cleveland is spiraling. Their defense isn’t playing well and Watson sucks. Washington is playing great ball, hard to bet against what this team is doing at the moment. However, this does smell of one of those games where the Browns pull a shocking upset somehow because the entire world thinks the Commanders smash the Browns.
– Brian Robinson Rushing Yards: CLE bad vs. the run. Allowed 16 10+ Yard Rushes (7th most), +.87 RYOE/Att (6th most), 3.63 YACo/Att (4th most).
– Austin Ekeler Receptions: Not up yet as of this article but regardless of Brian Robinson suiting up or not, he has a 23% target per route run and a 100% catch rate on a lot of designed screen plays.
TD Scorers: Brian Robinson (+110), Austin Ekeler (+115), David Njoku (+235), Jeremy McNichols (+255), D’Onta Foreman (+260), Deshaun Watson (+400)
MIA @ NE -.5 – u35.5
Miami is lost right now. Absolutely no confidence in Mike McDaniel to turn it around, I’ll bet against them until Tua returns then we can reevaluate. Patriots should have no issues running it down Miami’s throats, the script will be in their favor to play their game.
– Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards: I hope it becomes available before lock because I’ll be on it. MIA allowing +.69 RYOE/Att (9th most), and 4.22 YACo/Att (most). I expect the script to be in Gibson’s favor and if he actually does take on the RB1 role for a week or two it’s something I want to be a part of given his big play ability..
TD Scorers: Rhamondre Stevenson (+140), De’Von Achane (+150), Antonio Gibson (+210), Tyreek Hill (+185)
IND @ JAX +3 – o45.5
The Jags have played multiple close games this year but just can’t come up with the win. I’ll take the divisional team at home that is fighting for their season to cover. Points will be scored.
NOTE: I can’t put unofficial bets in here without knowing who the QB will be and due to that, none of the receiving lines (where I’d attack) for the Colts are available. If Joe Flacco starts, I like him a ton, even alted up. Once we have an announcement I’ll post. Pittman would be my favorite of his WRs to eat followed by Downs and Sermon receptions.
TD Scorers: Trey Sermon (+110), Brian Thomas (+175), Michael Pittman (+215), Josh Downs (+215), Trevor Lawrence (+245)
CAR +4 @ CHI – u42
I expect a low scoring game. Waldron isn’t good enough to schematically separate themselves even against poor defenses. Carolina covers in a boring, low scoring game.
– Diontae Johnson o5.5 Receptions: Bears likely win and Diontae has seen 13 targets each game since Dalton took over with a 36% target share.
TD Scorers: Chuba Hubbard (+110), Roschon Johnson (+210), Keenan Allen (+220), Rome Odunze (+295), Cole Kmet (+300), Tommy Tremble (+550)
BUF +1.5 @ HOU – u47
Buffalo is just a better team right now. If Houston goes back to the wide 11-Personnel look with Tank Dell back it is going to hurt their offense. Expect a bounce back for Buffalo.
– None: Buffalo spreads it too much and I prefer Dare Ogunbowale receiving lines which we won’t get. Sticking with the Diggs revenge TD for a unit.
TD Scorers: Nico Collins (+105), James Cook (+110), Stefon Diggs (+150), Tank Dell (+215)
LV @ DEN -2.5 – o36.5
Denver wins this one at home. I think they’re a lot better than people think and the Raiders defense isn’t sharp enough to stiffen Bo Nix.
– Javonte Williams o50.5 Rushing Yards: Vegas has been bad against the run allowing the 3rd most rush yards per play (5.1), the most RYOE/Att (+1.3), and 6th most YBCo/Att (.91). I don’t trust any back from this team anymore to bet on it. Who knows, maybe Blake Watson takes over the backfield this week? Nothing would surprise me.
TD Scorers: Alexander Mattison (+165), Javonte Williams (+195), Courtland Sutton (+210), Bo Nix (+225), Jaleel McLaughlin (+300), Tre Tucker (+350), DEN DST (+390)
ARI +7.5 @ SF – o50.5
I think San Francisco wins but it’s hard not to bet the hook in a divisional game when we’re getting 7.5.
– Brock Purdy o256.5 Passing Yards: Love Purdy this week. May target it live.
– Brandon Aiyuk o62.5 Receiving Yards: This is the BA breakout week. Cards allowing 2nd highest EPA/Pass to perimeter WRs (+.48). Need to see it first before we risk it.
– Trey McBride o44.5 Receiving Yards: This line is too low for McBride but matchup is tough on paper. Niners haven’t played any TEs of note so it could be a byproduct of that, we’ll find out.
TD Scorers: Deebo Samuel (-105), James Conner (+100), Brandon Aiyuk (+140), Jauan Jennings (+165), Trey McBride (+205), Kyler Murray (+245), Brock Purdy (+450)
GB -3.5 @ LAR – o48
I expect this to be high scoring. Both the Packers offense should have their way in this one, I’m hoping the Rams can keep up against a below average Packers defense.
– Jayden Reed o67.5 Receiving Yards: Just liked the Wicks line more.
– Matthew Stafford o235.5 Passing Yards: Not enough data to back it up but I expect him to get there in garbage time. Sometimes the Rams are overly committed to the run and might be here with Kupp and Puka still out.
– Emmanuel Wilson o28.5 Rushing Yards: I’ll be eying this live depending the gameflow. See the Love breakdown for LAR Rush defense numbers.
TD Scorers: Kyren Williams (-195), Josh Jacobs (-150), Jayden Reed (-110), Dontayvion Wicks (+155), Tucker Kraft (+265), Emmanuel Wilson (+300)
NYG @ SEA -6 – o42
Seattle is designed to bury teams and I’m sure they do that to the Giants here. Expect a big game from Seattle’s rushing attack and a lot of short targets for Wandale.
– Zach Charbonnet o 18.5 Rushing Yards: Obviously on Walker. I’m not sure how at LEAST one of these backs doesn’t hit their line. Both probably do.
TD Scorers: KENNETH FUCKING WALKER (-175), DK Metcalf (+125), Zach Charbonnet (+230), Daniel Jones (+275), SEA DST (+400), Theo Johnson (+500)
DAL @ PIT -2.5 – u43
Not a good spot for Dallas. Their offense will sputter here and Pittsburgh should control the game on the ground, Dak will look awful and out of sync, get ready for the narrative.
– CeeDee Lamb o78.5 Receiving Yards: See above notes.
– Justin Fields o46.5 Rushing Yards (-115): I interpreted Tomlin’s comments this week that Fields has not solidified himself as the QB1 even with a healthy Russ that they haven’t been convinced in his progress. As I mentioned last week with the Giants matchup, the Cowboys are bad vs. the run. Najee Harris is the only noteworthy RB healthy for the Steelers with Warren and Patterson both out. The Steelers will use Fields on the ground more in this one.
TD Scorers: Najee Harris (-110), CeeDee Lamb (+100), Justin Fields (+135), Ezekiel Elliott (+310), Aaron Shampklin (+330), DAL DST (+475), Darnell Washington (+600), Hunter Luepke (+700)
