Week 5 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Travis Kelce o55.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Travis Kelce 1+ TD (+145): 2u – Fanduel
– Noah Gray o20.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 2u – Fanduel
– Noah Gray 1+ TD (+600): 1u – Fanduel
Breakdown
Chiefs TEs
This is Mahomes’ security blanket and where Andy Reid feels most comfortable designing his aerial attack. Last week when Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury (he is out at least the next four games), Kelce went on to have nine targets, catching seven of them for 89 yards (9.9 YPT) and Gray caught all four of his targets for 40 yards (10 YPT). They both ended up leaving with 28%+ Target Per Route Run numbers with Kelce being at a 28% TPPR and a 38% target rate overall with 40% of the team’s air yards with Noah Gray having a 36% TPPR and 17% of the team’s targets and 12% of the air yards. The Saints don’t show anything on paper to date that they are a ripe matchup for these players but I’m rolling with what I predict to be high usage for both of these players in this matchup at home on MNF. What I do want to note is two specific things as in Week 2 the Saints were beat by opposing TE Luke Schoonmaker for six snags for 43 scoreless yards in what was a lot of check downs but in Week 3 we saw Dallas Goedert go off, catching 10 of his 11 targets for 170 yards. The Saints run Cover 2 at the 7th highest rate in the NFL and 2-high at the 14th highest rate and these coverages usually leave the middle of the field open as they want to take away the deeper routes over the top. This is a coverage that was made famous years ago for “slowing” down Mahomes and forcing him to evolve his game closer to the line of scrimmage. I also want to note that Saturday was Travis Kelce’s birthday so I’m tossing a few shekels on him to get in the box with a higher chance of doing so with the expectation we get the Kelce “of old” in this matchup since Rice is on the sideline. I just like the odds of Gray scoring as well at +600 with what I project as an offense using a lot of 12-personnel moving forward with their current WR group.
Notes
NO +5.5 @ KC – u43
I think the game total is about right, I don’t have a strong lean either way. Chiefs win, Saints cover.
– Juwan Johnson o16.5 Receiving Yards: I like Johnson here but the usage of him so far scares me off. He only has targets in two of his four games and has yet to top three in a game. The Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL to opposing TEs so this is a ripe matchup, I just don’t trust the volume for Johnson to get there.
– Kareem Hunt o42.5 Rushing Yards: Nothing matchup wise is there to say we should smash this and I’m still a tad hesitant on usage with the possibility of this being a jumbled mess of a rotation. However, the chiefs trust Hunt and if he takes 58% of the rush attempts again in this game he’ll cruise by 43 rushing yards. I need to see it more before I buy in completely and bet on it.
TD Scorers: Alvin Kamara (-110), Travis Kelce (+125), Kareem Hunt (+130), Juwan Johnson (+350), Patrick Mahomes (+380), Noah Gray (+425)
