Week 7 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +22.63 Betting Results (2024)
NOTE: I’ll be eying Live a lot more this weekend than usual. I am trying a different approach with some of these plays, seeing how they play out and the flow so be attentive in chat this Sunday!
Bets
Sunday
9:30am
– Drake Maye o198.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Demario Douglas o45.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– Demario Douglas 100+ Receiving Yards (+950): 1u – Draftkings
– Kayshon Boutte o17.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– Kayshon Boutte 50+ Receiving Yards (+750): 1u – Draftkings
1pm
– Sam Darnold o249.5 Passing Yards (-120): 5u – Draftkings
– Jordan Addison o47.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Jordan Addison 100+ Receiving Yards (+650): 1u – Draftkings
– Jordan Addison 110+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 1u – Draftkings
– David Montgomery o50.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 5u – MGM
4pm
– Kyren Williams o89.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– Brian Robinson o Rushing Yards: TBD (Eying a ladder here)
– Diontae Johnson o Receptions: TBD
8pm
– Davante Adams o4.5 Receptions (-108): 3u – Fanduel
– Davante Adams 1st TD (+800): 1u – MGM
Potential Live Plays
– Drake Maye Passing Yards: If Jaguars are pushing downfield and scoring.
– Kenneth Walker Receptions: If in comeback pass mode.
– Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards: If ATL up 2 scores 2H.
– Anything DET/MIN
– Blake Corum Rushing Yards + TD: Garbage time vs. bad run D.
– Jeremy McNichols Rushing Yards + TD: Garbage time vs. bad run D.
Breakdown
9:30am
Drake Maye
The Jaguars pass D, as I’ve stated multiple times, is bad. They are allowing the most pass yards per game (276.7), have the worst EPA/Pass (+.23), have the worst Pass DVOA (+48.6%), and are allowing the 4th most pass yards per play (7.2). They are also, in a correlated stat, allowing the most yards per game to opposing WRs (192) and 2nd most receptions to WRs (15.5) per game. This just details the ball is going to the WRs as opposed to TEs and RBs, which, again, is correlated to the gaudy numbers. I’ll be eying Drake Maye’s passing lines live, especially if the Jaguars start to put up points and move the ball quickly, which they should as the Patriots defense is a lot worse than the Bears.
Demario Douglas
To piggyback on what I wrote about with Drake Maye and as I wrote about in the Waiver Wire article, Douglas is very much Drake Maye’s top option in the passing game. He gets separation unlike anyone else on this team and it showed on the boxscore in Week 6 as he caught six of his nine targets for 92 yards and just missed another large chunk gain (maybe a TD) earlier in the game. He did this on a 67% route participation (year low, expect that to be ~80%) and saw a 32% target per route run with a 30% target share. He also had a season high 43% of the team’s air yards and 45% of the team’s 3rd down targets.
Kayshon Boutte
Basically everything above but Boutte’s line of 17.5 is too hard to pass up for a guy who is coming off a career high 76% route participation in Drake Maye’s first career start and has seen a 9% TPPR the last four weeks and has a 13.4 ADOT, which was 18.7 last week en route to his three catch, 59 yard day. All coupled with the coaches praising Boutte all week basically confirming the three WR sets will be Bourne, Boutte, and Douglas.
1pm
DET @ MIN
We are going to get fireworks in this divisional matchup as the Lions visit the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are clicking on all cylinders on offense after they just absolutely embarrassed the Cowboys in Dallas. The Lions offense now has the 3rd most overall yards on offense this year (416) per game, the third highest EPA/Play (+.15), 4th most passing yards (258.2), 5th highest EPA/Pass (+.15), 4th most rushing yards per game (157.8), and 2nd highest EPA/Rush (+.14). It has been extremely enjoyable watching Ben Johnson and this group click across the board from the ground game with “Sonic and Knuckles” just bulldozing people behind that top tier offensive line to see Jameson Williams emerge and compliment Amon-Ra St. Brown in the passing game to make defenses cover all points of the field to even Sam LaPorta getting back involved with a beautifully designed play to him for a 52-yard TD in Week 6. I can’t remember in recent memory watching an offense in sync like this and they get to face a defense that is allowing the 3rd most passing yards per game this year (263) and threatens to fight fire with fire, which I think blows up in the Vikings face. The crazy part is teams aren’t even respecting Jameson Williams a ton yet, which when they do, just makes it even easier on this OL and the ground game.
The Vikings offense has looked as good as ever with Sam Darnold playing within the construct of the offense and beautifully slinging the ball around under Kevin O’Connell’s design. They will face a Detroit Lions defense that we have consistently attacked through the air over the last two years and we get to do it again this year. The biggest hit to this team happened last week when their star defensive player, Aidan Hutchinson snapped his leg in half and will miss the remainder of the season. He was accounting for a league high 55% of the Lions’ pressures and sacks which was 13% higher than the next player, Nick Bosa. Even with that, the Lions pass defense still sucked, allowing the 3rd most passing yards per play (7.9), 6th most passing yards per game (246.2), most receptions per game to WRs (15.8), and 4th most receiving yards per game to WRs (176). They went out of their way this offseason to sign Carlton Davis and then draft Terrion Arnold in the 1st round of the 2024 NFL Draft, both of which have been disappointments and have been turnstyles. You couple this, as always, with the absolute brick wall of a run defense and the Vikings are going to be forced to throw it all over the field. The kicker here is that without Aidan Hutchinson, I think the Lions run defense takes a hit, allowing Ty Chandler to have enough success to throw this defense for a loop. Fireworks.
Calvin Ridley
Quite simple. He is becoming frustrated with his role in the offense and it climaxed last week when he saw eight targets with only four of them catchable and was unable to bring in any. To make matters worse, he had an insanely idiotic 19.8 ADOT last week and has a 20.3 ADOT on the season with every game being 17.3 or higher except one. He voiced his frustration with this to the media and said he wanted to get in the groove early with easier schematic plays. Head Coach (and play caller) Brian Callahan addressed those and said he was extremely mindful of it and basically confirmed he would do his best to get Ridley the ball early. I’d be SHOCKED if he doesn’t at least have a target on the first drive and I’d be even more shocked if that target wasn’t a lay up to get him in the groove of the game.
4pm
Kyren Williams
The Rams Punt Returner is seeing 77% of the team’s rush attempts which has been up to 83% the last three games. This team is coming off a Bye week and is getting healthy as they expect a fully healthy Cooper Kupp to return to the lineup, only helping Kyren Williams and this run game as things open up even more in the air. Their matchup this week, at home, as 7-point favorites, is the LV Raiders who sport one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They are allowing the most RYOE/Att (+1.56), 5th most YBCo/Att (+1.88), 4th highest Rush DVOA (+5.4%), 4th highest Rush YPP (5), 7th highest EPA/Rush (+.02) allowed, and have given up the 9th most rushing yards to opposing RBs (109.7) overall per game. With script fully expected to be in a well rested, well coached Rams favor and consistency on the offense, Kyren should have no issue eclipsing 100 as the Rams defense also sucks so this game should be close into the 2nd half. I’ll be eying live very closely here with Blake Corum getting some successful garbage runs late in the game if the Rams are up significantly around half so keep that on your radar.
Brian Robinson
I’m waiting this before we have the final injury news from Brian Robinson and fully how this backfield shakes out so keep that in mind but it applies across the board if Robinson is out because it trickles down to Ekeler and McNichols. To be quick, the Panthers run D blows and the Commanders are 8.5-point favorites and have been killing it on the ground. The Panthers are allowing the most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (133.8) and have the worst Rush DVOA (+9.9%) in the NFL while also allowing the 8th most 10+ yard rushes to opposing teams (23). In Week 1 Kamara ran for 83 yards, Week 2 Dobbins ran for 131, Week 4 Moss ran for 51 and Brown ran for 80, in Week 5 Swift ran for 73, and in Week 6 Bijan ran for 95 and Allgeier ran for 105. Teams destroy this Panthers defense on the ground and we are up for another one here so I want Brian Robinson pre game and McNichols to close it out in the 4Q live.
Diontae Johnson
I’m a little mad at myself for not blindly betting Diontae Johnson every week since Dalton has taken over but no sense in living in the past. He has at least 10 targets in three of his last four games since Dalton has taken over and has averaged 10.5 targets per game over that span with a 30% target share and 46% of the Panthers air yards with 64% of those targets being charted as “catchable”. I feel like a broken record bringing up the fact the Commander’s defense sucks, but it does. They suck at all phases and to date they are allowing the 9th most receptions per game (13) and the 6th most receiving yards (169.7) to opposing WRs while allowing the 6th highest EPA/Pass to perimeter WRs (+.37). At the end of the day I could throw more stats at you (the Commanders rush defense is also ass) but the reality is that Dalton is going to throw the ball 12+ times to Diontae in a game the Panthers are likely trailing given the Commanders are now 8.5 point favorites and the point total is 51.
Jakobi Meyers
The Raiders Head Coach, Antonio Pierce, and Offensive Coordinator, Luke Getsy, have been VERY loud about how Meyers is a team player and they love his work ethic. Just gushing over Meyers and this all comes on the heels of the Raiders trading away star WR Davante Adams to the New York Jets. The Raiders are trying to build from the bottom and build a locker room of tough nosed players and as Meyers works through an injury, I expect him to get absolutely peppered here from Aidan O’Connell. The Rams defense is awful across the board but mainly their pass defense as they’ve allowed the most Pass Yards Per Play (7.9), the 2nd highest EPA/Pass (+.19), and the 3rd highest Pass DVOA (+28.5%). The only hold back from going nuts here is the Rams absolutely destroying the clock against the Raiders poor run defense but with the Raiders being 7-point dogs, the Raiders are going to have a lot of hurry-up offense to work through. NOTE: If Jakobi Meyers is out, Brock Bowers becomes a solid value but this receptions line is mainly predicated on proving a point to those working hard. However, Bowers probably sees 10+ targets in this one even if he is being double covered if Meyers is out.
8pm
I think the Jets pepper Adams. That is who I’ll be eying up but as of this article coming out, nothing is available. I want 1st reception, 1st TD, 1+ TD, 2+ TD, all of it. I think Adams has 10+ targets and the first play of the game is a quick 8-10 route that is right at Adams. Everything else is secondary in this game and I’ll of course be eying live but both of these teams have great defenses and their offenses are in flux (Russ in PIT) so there is really no statistical advantage across the board.
Notes
NE +5.5 @ JAX – o42.5
Drake Maye looked good last week against a vastly superior defense. I’m excited to watch him carve up the Jags on Sunday morning.
– Drake Maye o27.5 Rushing Yards: Jags play a lot of man and leave the middle of the field open on scrambles. Maye did a great job in his first start pushing the ball downfield but he can rip this off in one chunk. Eying it live.
TD Scorers: Tank Bigsby (-110), Brian Thomas Jr. (+165), Drake Maye (+300), Kayshon Boutte (+650)
DET @ MIN -2.5 – o49.5
I hope this one turns out to be the fireworks I expect. The Vikings are getting a ton of respect being favored here off of a Bye.
– BE IN CHAT FOR LIVE
TD Scorers: Anyone could score.
TEN @ BUF -9 – o41
This Titans team is a mess. Bills roll.
– Calvin Ridley o3.5 Receptions: Squeaky wheel. I want with a Reception on their first drive. Ridley had some choice words last week about his involvement and Callahan is responsive with that stuff, Ridley will have a layup target on their first pass play of the game.
– Tony Pollard o3.5 Receptions: No Spears, confirmed bulk share for Pollard through the HC/Play Caller.
TD Scorers: Tony Pollard (-105), James Cook (+100), Calvin Ridley (+330), BUF DST (+390)
NOTE: BUF Spreads it around way too much to trust anyone but Cook at this point to score at the goal line outside of 10+ yard play.
PHI @ NYG +3.5 – u43
Don’t sleep on the Giants. They are an injured kicker away from being above the Commanders in the standings while the Eagles just barely beat the Browns at home after a Bye Week.
Unofficial Bets
TD Scorers: Saquon Barkley (-160), Malik Nabers (+110), AJ Brown (+130), Grant Calcaterra (+360), Jack Stoll (+650)
HOU @ GB -3 – u47.5
Houston doesn’t play as well outside as opposed to on turf, I expect Houston to take this one.
– Josh Jacobs o64.5 Rushing Yards: I expect LaFleur to lean more on Jacobs in a tougher matchup but they’re 3 point favorites at home and HOU is allowing +.02 EPA/Rush (7th highest).
TD Scorers: Josh Jacobs (-125), Joe Mixon (-115), Stefon Diggs (+135)
CIN @ CLE +6.5 – u42
No real feel for this game since it is a divisional game and Nick Chubb is returning so I’ll take the points with the Browns since it is a home divisional game for them.
– Nick Chubb u37.5 Rushing Yards: Limited workload but I’m not betting against Chubb against this defense.
– Zack Moss o30.5 Rushing Yards: I don’t think as much has changed in this rotation as everyone thinks. The Browns are allowing +.7 RYOE/Att (7th most).
TD Scorers: Zack Moss (+110), Chase Brown (+120), Ja’Marr Chase (+120), Nick Chubb (+125), Erick All (+475), CIN DST (+425)
SEA @ ATL -2.5 – u51
Seattle has regressed to being who I thought they were pre-season. Both teams pass a shit ton in a neutral script but the weak point of both defenses is on the ground. The Falcons are starting to click while Ryan Grubb looks overmatched.
– Kenneth Walker o3.5 Receptions: Eying this live. I expect ATL to win and Kenneth Walker to be a dump of gobbler.
– Tyler Allgeier o38.5 Rushing Yards: Eying this live as well. Allgeier is the hammer and SEA is allowing the 2nd most rushing yards to opposing backs (124.5), 2nd most YACo/Att (3.8), 3rd highest RYOE/Att (+1.08), and 4th most Rush Yards Per Play (5).
TD Scorers: Bijan Robinson (-195), Kenneth Walker (-165), Drake London (+120), DK Metcalf (+125), Tyler Allgeier (+145 – LIVE), Noah Fant (+300)
MIA @ IND -3.5 – o43.5
Hard to bet against Miami coming off a Bye but Anthony Richardson will be fresh and Mike McDaniel doesn’t exactly deserve the benefit of the doubt with Tyler Huntley under center.
– Tyreek Hill o56.5 Receiving Yards: Just incredibly too low against a bad Colts pass defense.
TD Scorers: Raheem Mostert (+125), Trey Sermon (+130), DeVon Achane (+155), Tyreek Hill (+190), Josh Downs (+260), Jonnu Smith (+285)
LV @ LAR -7 – o43.5
Raiders are not good, Rams roll off a Bye. Kyren absolutely eats and Kupp gets home too.
– Blake Corum Live Yards/TD
TD Scorers: Kyren Williams (-195), Cooper Kupp (+110), Alexander Mattison (+175), Brock Bowers (+200), Blake Corum (+230), Demarcus Robinson (+250), Ameer Abdullah (+425)
CAR +8 @ WAS – o51.5
This is a classic situation where the Panthers offense is good enough to capitalize against a terrible Commanders defense and back door cover.
– McNichols Live Yards/TD
– Chuba Hubbard o71.5 Rushing Yards: Chuba is a beast and Commanders are allowing the most 10+ yard rushes (29), 3rd most YBCo/Att (2.12), and are allowing 5th most rush YPG to RBs (118.3). I’m just concerned with the script.
TD Scorers: Brian Robinson (-150), Chuba Hubbard (-125), Austin Ekeler (+115), Jeremy McNichols (+175), Xavier Legette (+230), Zach Ertz (+250), Noah Brown (+310),
KC @ SF -1.5 – u47
EXTREMELY hard to bet against KC after a Bye and I’m mostly avoiding this game, not much of value but Shanahan had a mini-bye himself and Shanahan goes idiot when he’s up in the 2H of the Super Bowl, not Week 7.
– Travis Kelce o5.5 Receptions: Pure volume from Kelce, matchup is neutral.
– Noah Gray o13.5 Receiving Yards: Gray with a 37% route participation in the last three weeks with an 18% TPPR.
– George Kittle o53.5 Receiving Yards: Nick Bolton can’t cover anyone. I may be adding this one depending how we are looking after the DET/MIN game.
TD Scorers: Jordan Mason (-115), Travis Kelce (-105), Deebo Samuel (+115), George Kittle (+135), Patrick Mahomes (+475), Noah Gray (+650)
NYJ -2 @ PIT – o38
The first pass of the game for the Jets is going to Adams.
– See above
TD Scorers: Breece Hall (-115), Davante Adams (+155), George Pickens (+180)
