Week 9 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +60.99 Betting Results (2024)
Bets
1pm
– Bo Nix o213.5 Passing Yards (-113): 10u – MGM
– Bo Nix 250+ Passing Yards (+215): 2u – Draftkings
– Bo Nix 275+ Passing Yards (+475): 3u – Draftkings
– Bo Nix 300+ Passing Yards (+750): 2u – Caesars
– CeeDee Lamb o84.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 5u – Draftkings
– CeeDee Lamb 120+ Receiving Yards (+300): 1u – Draftkings
– CeeDee Lamb 150+ Receiving Yards (+750): 1u – Caesars
– CeeDee Lamb 160+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – Caesars
– Dak Prescott o264.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– Bijan Robinson o72.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Bijan Robinson 100+ Rushing Yards (+275): .5u – Draftkings
– Bijan Robinson 120+ Rushing Yards (+650): .5u – Draftkings
– Bijan Robinson 130+ Rushing Yards (+900): 1u – Caesars
– Chuba Hubbard o53.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – Caesars
– Chuba Hubbard 90+ Rushing Yards (+500): 1u – Draftkings
– Chuba Hubbard 100+ Rushing Yards (+850): 2u – Draftkings
– Chuba Hubbard 110+ Rushing Yards (+1300): 2u – Draftkings
– Tyrone Tracy o55.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Tyrone Tracy 110+ Rushing Yards (+650): 1u – Draftkings
– Tyrone Tracy 120+ Rushing Yards (+950): 2u – Draftkings
4pm
– Puka Nacua o65.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving Yards (+320): 1u – Draftkings
– Puka Nacua 120+ Receiving Yards (+650): 2u – Draftkings
– Cooper Kupp o58.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Fanduel
– Cooper Kupp 100+ Receiving Yards (+475): 1u – Draftkings
– Cooper Kupp 120+ Receiving Yards (+950): 2u – Draftkings
– Kyren Williams o86.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Sam LaPorta o40.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
8pm
See below for stats. Eying Joe Flacco Passing Yards here and TJ Hockenson Receiving Yards. The stats below paint the picture for both but I expect the Vikings to win so Joe will get quite a bit of slinging it time and Hockenson is expected to see his normal 70%-80% snap share and workload which is why the Vikings held him out last week. He is full blown ready to go and the lines indicate a lower usage given they are 38.5 for his receiving yards, they should be closer to mid high 40s to low 50s.
Breakdown
Bo Nix
Easily my favorite bet of the week and I’m curious why they opened this line at 213.5? Sean Payton’s project baby is playing the best football of the season right now, coming off of a forced passing game going 28/37 for 284 yards and three scores which is quite frankly a better pass defense. We have been hammering QBs against the Ravens this year and it will continue up until we see the Ravens pass defense show a glimmer of hope. The Ravens have played eight games this year and every single QB has thrown for 269 yards or more against them except Josh Allen in Week 4, which was a weird game that the Ravens dominated from the get go on prime time. If you remove that game, opposing QBs have averaged 330.14 yards per game over a seven game sample size and four of those seven have thrown for 334 or more yards with three of them 370 or more. See below in the Notes section for how bad their passing stats are defensive. I fully expect the Ravens to put up points and we will get garbage time worst case scenario and see Nix get over 250 easily.
CeeDee Lamb & Dak Prescott
Dak and Lamb are going to eat here. Dak is at his best when he has time to throw and he sure will here. The Falcons rank dead last with a 2% sack rate and only a 25.9% pressure rate. They have the 7th worst EPA/Pass allowed and the 8th most pass yards in the NFL allowed (75.6) on passes traveling between 11-20 air yards, which is Dak and Lamb’s bread and butter. You mix this great combination and the Cowboys piss poor defense, we will see Dak and Lamb put up some gaudy numbers here. I’ll be eying live and if the Falcons go up early, wheels up for Dak and Lamb.
Bijan Robinson
This loops back to the Cowboys having one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and it meshing horribly against the Falcons run offense here. The Cowboys have the worst EPA/Rush (+.19) allowed, 5th most explosive runs (31) allowed, 6th highest rush yards per play (4.8), 8th most YACo/Att (3.23), 10th most RYOE/Att (+.56) and 12th highest YBCo/Att (1.61). Teams have had all of this success on the edges against the Cowboys, where the Cowboys have had to defend a league high 66.2% of outside runs. The Falcons find their success the most on the edges, running outside a league high 69.6% of the time. Wheels up for this Falcons offense in totality but especially for Bijan.
Chuba Hubbard
Someone explain this line to me? Chuba has consistently been in the mid 70s in terms of rushing props and now he is 53.5? Dave Canales has been adamant to an annoying extent that they are taking it easy with Jonathan Brooks and IF he is active, he is going to see a very small workload and I’m quite confident he eats more into Miles Sanders than anything and is given a few carries (maybe 3?) and a target or two at the most. This is still the Chuba Hubbard show in the backfield, especially on the ground. Chuba Hubbard has topped 54 rushing yards in six of his last seven games and the game he missed he had 52. He has at least 13 carries in every game since Week 3 and has 15 or more in five of the six so even if Chuba loses 2-3 carries, he is still going to have 13+ chances to get there. Last week Chuba got a carry on the Panthers last drive when they were down by 21 with only a few minutes left. They want to analyze Bryce Young and they want to analyze this roster. This is a home divisional game where Bryce Young is coming off his best game as a pro against a still depleted Saints defense. They have been destroyed on the ground so far this year, allowing the most YBCo/Att (2.52), the 2nd most Rush YPP (5.2), the 2nd highest EPA/Rush (+.08) allowed, the 7th most Rushing YPG to RBs (7th), the 9th most RYOE/Att (+.61), and the 5th most Rushing TDPG to RBs (1.0). Over the Saints last six games they have allowed seven RBs to top 57 or more rushing yards, at least one in each game and those seven backs averaged 95.86 rush YPG with three of them topping 100 and two exceeding 136. Sign me up, I’ll proudly go down with this ship if it loses.
Tyrone Tracy
A late add right before the article drops but the line is too good to pass up. Check below for all the stats under the Notes section but what really drives this play home is the fact every single team that has played the Commanders this year except for two has had a back reach 56 or more rushing yards. All in all in the eight games played, the Commanders have allowed seven backs to hit 58 rushing yards or more and in the two games that the Commanders did hold a RB under 56 rushing yards was in Week 5 against the Browns where both Ford and Foreman had 47 and 44 rushing yards respectively on nine carries each and in Week 7 against Carolina when Chuba ended with 52 rushing yards but Miles Sanders had 34 on only three carries. The Commanders won that game 40-7. The Giants have been extremely competitive this year except for Week 1 against the Vikings and Week 7 against the Eagles. If they had a field goal kicker in Week 2 against the Commanders, they would have won. Divisional games are weird and the Giants are home here. Tracy has been absolutely eating since taking over the top RB spot, having multiple games of 129 or more rushing yards. I expect 15+ rushes here for Tracy and he has the homerun ability to house any given touch he has.
Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp
This is more or less a bet on Puka than anything. The Seahawks pass defense isn’t something I usually target specifically (their run defense is much worse) but this line should be up closer to 80 receiving yards. In his first game back this year after missing the last two months, Puka had a 65% route participation and a whopping 41% TPRR compared to Kupp had a 82% route participation with a 29% TPRR. His ADOT was a generous 12 and he saw 22% of the play action targets with screens mixed in and his normal share of manufactured touches. He has had that mini bye week to continue his path to health so I expect a full workload of 95% or more of the snaps. I also want to note that three of the last four teams to play the Seahawks have seen at least one WR top 100 receiving yards with Darius Slayton going for 122 in Week 5, Deebo Samuel going for 102 in Week 6 and Khalil Shakir going for 107 last week in Week 8.
**I had this write up written before Halloween and on Halloween night (spooky?) Puka Nacua was reported to have left practice early after aggravating his knee injury. We dove in on Kupp with the expectation Puka misses but also the fall back of both hitting given they will both eat up a 30% snap share if active and Kupp potentially seeing a large share after an extended rest of 10 days. There is a slim chance Puka is a full go on Sunday if he is active.
Kyren Williams
As I touched on above, the Seahawks run defense is brutal. This line for Kyren should be in the mid 90s with the volume he sees of 20+ carries a game but we get a value at 86.5. This is a line that Kyren has eclipsed in four of his last five games with the one miss being in Week 7 against the Raiders where he ran the ball 21 times for 76 yards. Over that six game span he has had 19+ carries in all four of them and topped 21 in four of the five. The Seahawks have allowed each of their last four opponents to exceed 99 or more rushing yards with guys like Tracy (18/129), Guerendo (10/99), Jordan Mason (9/73), Bijan Robinson (21/103), and James Cook (17/111) all having immense success against them. They now have allowed the most rushing yards per game to opposing backs (130.4), 2nd most YACo/Att (3.78), 3rd most RYOE/Att (+1.18), 5th most Rush YPP (4.9), 5th most rushing TDPG to RBs (1.0) and the 10th most explosive runs (29). Love Kyren to also get in the box here but he is -200 so I am not playing it straight.
Sam LaPorta
I’ll keep this one quick as it boils down to a good matchup and Jameson Williams missing. I expect a higher workload for LaPorta with Jameson out as they pivot to getting him more involved and the Packers allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game (59.9) to opposing TEs.
Unofficial Bets
– AJ Brown o75.5 Receiving Yards: Barely missed the cut, love him Sunday
– Derek Carr o229.5 Passing Yards: Think he gets there, prefer Chuba in this game.
– Kirk Cousins o245.5 Passing Yards: I think they run it but great matchup.
– Drake London o63.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Kirk.
– Darnell Mooney o52.5 Receiving Yards: Same as London and Kirk.
– Tyler Allgeier o42.5 Rushing Yards: Eying live. Only gets home in +script.
– Brian Robinson Jr. o57.5 Rushing Yards: Don’t trust the hammy.
– Jalen Tolbert o40.5 Receiving Yards: I think Tolbert gets there. Prefer to play Lamb/Dak.
– De’Von Achane o32.5 Receiving Yards: Good matchup and great usage.
– James Cook o64.5 Rushing Yards: I think he gets there, can’t play everything.
– Raheem Mostert o32.5 Rushing Yards: Monitoring his usage, great line.
– Nick Chubb o52.5 Rushing Yards: Worried about gameflow.
– JK Dobbins o65.5 Rushing Yards: Same as Chubb.
– Geno Smith o254.5 Passing Yards: Worried Rams eat up clock.
– Kenneth Walker o3.5 Receptions: Fuck Ryan Grubb but he has hit in 4 of L5.
– David Montgomery o55.5 Rushing Yards: Beast, rainy game, neutral matchup.
Notes
WAS @ NYG +3.5 – u43.5
Eventually the Commanders inability to convert in the redzone is going to bite them and it’ll be when no one expects it.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– WAS 34 Explosive Runs allowed (3rd most)
– WAS 5.1 Rush YPP allowed (4th most)
– WAS 1.0 Rush TDPG allowed to RBs (5th most)
– WAS 117 Rush YPG to RBs (6th most)
– NYG 5.4 Rush YPP allowed (most)
– NYG +1.5 RYOE/Att (most)
– NYG 37 Explosive Runs allowed (most)
– NYG +.06 EPA/Rush allowed (4th most)
– NYG 2.13 YBCo/Att allowed (4th most)
– NYG 3.31 YACo/Att allowed (5th most)
– NYG 109.9 Rush YPG to RBs allowed (8th most)
– NYG 45.1 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ Air Yards (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Noah Brown (+320), Theo Johnson (+400)
MIA @ BUF -6 – u49.5
I don’t feel strongly here, no great feeling for this game but I like Achane a lot.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– MIA 3.92 YACo/Att allowed (most)
– MIA 1.2 Rush TDPG allowed to RBs (3rd most)
– MIA .87 RYOE/Att allowed (5th most)
– MIA 4.3% Sack Rate (4th lowest)
– MIA 46.1 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ Air Yards (9th most)
– BUF 6.4 Receptions PG allowed to RBs (most)
– BUF 1.2 Rush TDPG allowed (3rd most)
– BUF 4.8 Rush YPP allowed (6th most)
– BUF 1.89 YBCo/Att allowed (7th most)
– BUF 142.4 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 Air Yards (7th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Dawson Knox (+750), Odell Beckham Jr. (+850)
LAC @ CLE +2 – u42.5
The Browns remain one of the best coached teams in the NFL and now Stefanski has a viable NFL QB. I expect Chubb to run wild.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– LAC 3.50 YACo/Att allowed (3rd most)
– LAC 4.8 Rush YPP allowed (6th most)
– LAC 4.8 Receptions PG allowed to RBs (9th most)
– CLE 33 Explosive Runs allowed (4th most)
– CLE +.71 RYOE/Att (7th most)
– CLE 50.6 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ Air Yards (4th most)
– CLE 150.6 YPG to WRs (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Elijah Moore (+265), Will Dissly (+330)
DEN +9.5 @ BAL – o45.5
Backdoor cover. You know the deal by now, Bo Nix Passing Yards.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– DEN 5.5 Receptions PG allowed to RBs (5th most)
– BAL 291.4 Pass YPG allowed (most)
– BAL 7.0 Pass YPP allowed (6th most)
– BAL +.13 EPA/Pass allowed (3rd most)
– BAL 58.5 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ Air Yards (3rd most)
– BAL 102.1 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 Air Yards (most)
– BAL 151 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 Air Yards (2nd most)
– BAL 190.1 YPG allowed to WRs (most)
– BAL 75.5 YPG allowed to TEs (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Bo Nix (+265), Isaiah Likely (+280), Troy Franklin (+380), Lucas Krull (+980)
LV @ CIN -7.5 – u46.5
Probably a one n done for AP in Vegas.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– LV +1.0 RYOE/Att allowed (4th most)
– LV 1.66 YBCo/Att allowed (9th most)
– LV 102.1 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (9th most)
– LV 5.0 Receptions PG allowed to RBs (7th most)
– CIN 3.9 Sack Rate (3rd lowest)
– CIN 57.4 YPG allowed to TEs (7th most)
– CIN +.07 EPA/Rush allowed (3rd most)
– CIN +.71 RYOE/Att allowed (6th most)
– CIN 3.22 YACo/Att allowed (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Mike Gesicki (+300), CIN DST (+450), Erick All (+475), Drew Sample (+1200)
JAX @ PHI -7.5 – o46
Jacksonville is cooked. The Eagles usually beat up on bad teams. AJ Brown may go for 200 if Jacksonville keeps it close.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– JAX +.20 EPA/Pass allowed (most)
– JAX 271.1 Pass YPG allowed (2nd most)
– JAX 7.3 Pass YPP allowed (2nd most)
– JAX 76 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– JAX 73.1 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)
– JAX 134.9 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 air yards (10th most)
– JAX 5.4% sack rate (6th lowest)
– JAX 6.4 Receptions PG allowed to RBs (most)
– JAX 177.1 YPG allowed to WRs (4th most)
– JAX 56.9 YPG allowed to TEs (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Parker Washington (+360), Jack Stoll (+700)
NO @ CAR +7 – u43.5
Bryce Young showed some improvement last week. I’ll take the points.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– NO 249.1 Pass YPG allowed (5th most)
– NO 6.7 Pass YPP allowed (8th most)
– NO 150.5 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 Air Yards (3rd most)
– NO 172.6 YPG allowed to WRs (5th most)
– NO 5.6% Sack Rate (9th lowest)
– NO 2.52 YBCo/Att allowed (most)
– NO 5.2 Rush YPP allowed (2nd most)
– NO +.08 EPA/Rush allowed (2nd most)
– NO 1.0 Rush TDPG allowed to RBs (5th most)
– NO 111.4 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (7th most)
– NO +.61 RYOE/Att allowed (9th most)
– CAR 232.9 Pass YPG allowed (8th most)
– CAR 7.5 Pass YPP allowed (most)
– CAR +.17 EPA/Pass allowed (2nd most)
– CAR 3.4% Sack Rate (2nd lowest)
– CAR 150.6 YPG allowed to WRs (10th most)
– CAR 58.6 YPG allowed to TEs (6th most)
– CAR 86.6 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 Air Yards (3rd most)
– CAR CAR 128.5 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (2nd most)
– CAR 1.9 YBCo/Att allowed (6th most)
– CAR 1.6 Rush TDPG allowed to RBs (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jalen Coker (+295), Tommy Tremble (+425), Bryce Young (+500), Ja’Tavion Sanders (+1200)
NE @ TEN -3.5 – u38
Slow methodical game with Jacoby back under center for the Patriots.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– NE 223.5 Pass YPG allowed (10th most)
– NE 6.9 Pass YPP allowed (7th most)
– NE 5.5% Sack Rate (7th lowest)
– NE +.08 EPA/Pass allowed (5th most)
– NE 48.3 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ Air Yards (6th most)
– NE 121.4 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (4th most)
– NE 1.2 Rush TDPG allowed (2nd most)
– TEN +.66 RYOE/Att allowed (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Hunter Henry (+285), Kayshon Boutte (+390), Chigoziem Okonkwo (+500), Austin Hooper (+650)
DAL @ ATL -2.5 – o52
I love this game, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dallas win. Points will be scored.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– DAL 7.2 Pass YPP allowed (3rd most)
– DAL +.08 EPA/Pass allowed (5th most)
– DAL +.19 EPA/Rush allowed (most)
– DAL 1.1 Rush TDPG allowed to RBs (4th most)
– DAL 3.23 YACo/Att allowed (8th most)
– DAL 31 Explosive Runs allowed (5th most)
– DAL 4.8 Rush YPP allowed (6th most)
– DAL +.56 RYOE/Att (10th most)
– DAL 1.61 YBCo/Att allowed (12th most)
– ATL 2% Sack Rate (lowest)
– ATL +.04 EPA/Pass allowed (7th most)
– ATL 75.6 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 Air Yards (8th most)
– ATL 5.9 Receptions PG allowed to RBs (4th most)
– ATL 1.65 YBCo/Att allowed (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jalen Tolbert (+285), Brevyn Spann-Ford (+850)
CHI +1 @ ARI – u44.5
No great feel here but Chicago has the best roster. Arizona has the better coaching staff. We’ll see.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– CHI 75.9 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 Air Yards (7th most)
– CHI 3.23 YACo/Att allowed (9th most)
– CHI 4.7 Rush YPP allowed (9th most)
– ARI 7.2 PAss YPP allowed (3rd most)
– ARI +.13 EPA/Pass allowed (3rd most)
– ARI 5.2 Sack Rate (5th lowest)
– ARI 235.6 Pass YPG allowed (7th most)
– ARI 117.2 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (5th most)
– ARI +.04 EPA/Rush allowed (7th most)
– ARI 30 explosive runs allowed (8th most)
– ARI 139.8 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 Air Yards (9th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Caleb Williams (+265), Cole Kmet (+265), Rome Odunze (+290), Roschon Johnson (+310)
DET -3.5 @ GB – u48
If Love plays, give me GB at home as underdogs but I don’t expect him to and it seems the books agree.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– DET 247.6 Passing YPG allowed (6th most)
– DET 81 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 air yards (4th most)
– DET 147 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 air yards (5th most)
– DET 184.4 YPG to WRs allowed (2nd most)
– DET 4.7 Rush YPP allowed (9th most)
– DET 2.21 YBCo/Att allowed (3rd most)
– GB 72.9 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 Air Yards (10th most)
– GB 59.9 YPG allowed to TEs (5th most)
– GB 3.29 YACo/Att allowed (6th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Tim Patrick (+390), Kalif Raymond (+400), Brock Wright (+700),
LAR -2 @ SEA – o48.5
The Rams trending up and getting healthy with extended rest, Seattle is nosediving. Usually I take the home divisional team here but the Seahawks will be outmatched at every level here.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– LAR 7.1 Pass YPP allowed (5th most)
– LAR 49.9 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ Air Yards (5th most)
– LAR +.03 EPA/Pass allowed (8th most)
– LAR 55.9 YPG allowed TEs (10th most)
– LAR +.04 EPA/Rush allowed (6th most)
– SEA 142.4 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 Air Yars (7th most)
– SEA 61.2 YPG allowed to TEs (4th most)
– SEA 130.4 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (most)
– SEA 3.78 YACo/Att allowed (2nd most)
– SEA +1.18 RYOE/Att (3rd most)
– SEA 4.9 Rush YPP allowed (5th)
– SEA 1.0 Rush TDPG allowed (5th most)
– SEA 29 Explosive Runs allowed (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jake Bobo (+500), AJ Barner (+750)
IND @ MIN -5.5 – o46.5
The Colts might backdoor cover but I’m concerned over this Anthony Richardson benching and what it does to the locker room. It seems the team was still behind AR and the Colts handled it miserably. Either way, Joe Flacco passing yards live.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– IND 227.8 Pass YPG allowed (9th most)
– IND +.01 EPA/Pass allowed (10th most)
– IND 6.7 Pass YPP allowed (9th most)
– IND 61.8 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– IND 5.5% sack rate (8th lowest)
– IND 56 YPG allowed to TEs (9th most)
– IND 3.25 YACo/Att allowed (7th most)
– IND 123.5 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (3rd most)
– IND 36 Explosive Runs allowed (2nd most)
– MIN 263 Pass YPG allowed (3rd most)
– MIN 47.3 Pass YPG allowed on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– MIN 92 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 air yards (2nd most)
– MIN 147 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 air yards (6th most)
– MIN 179.2 YPG allowed to WRs (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Josh Downs (+260), Jalen Nailor (+310), Alec Pierce (+380), Sam Darnold (+450)
