Week 10 MNF Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.

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Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: +97.45 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets

– Jaylen Waddle o42.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Jaylen Waddle 80+ Receiving Yards (+475): .5u – Draftkings

– Jaylen Waddle 90+ Receiving Yards (+700): .5u – Draftkings

– Jaylen Waddle 100+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 1u – Draftkings

– Jonnu Smith o34.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel

– Puka Nacua o66.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM

– Puka Nacua 120+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u – Caesars

– Puka Nacua 130+ Receiving Yards (+850): 1u – Caesars

– Puka Nacua 140+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 2u – Caesars

– Cooper Kupp o64.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 3u – MGM

Breakdown

Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp

I went back and forth with who is going to be the one to pop in this game and I initially went in thinking it was going to be Cooper Kupp, and it still may be Kupp, but I have to follow the data and that indicates it is going to be Puka Nacua. The best information we have is from Week 8 when both Puka and Kupp were active and we can point towards Kupp being a little banged up but I still think the way Sean McVay uses these two WRs that this game points more to Puka. In Week 8 we saw Puka grasp some ridiculous usage and production, catching seven of his nine targets for 106 yards with a 5.05 YPRR, 43% TPRR, 37.2% air yard share, 11.3 ADOT and 35% of the team’s 1st read targets. This was all ahead of Kupp in every category as Kupp caught five of his eight targets for 51 yards with a 1.89 YPRR, 30% TPRR, 18.6% air yard share, 6.4 ADOT and 30% of the team’s 1st read targets. In Week 9 we saw Puka run about 100% of his routes (his usual workload) before throwing a punch and getting ejected. Even though overall Puka only was around for half the game roughly, seeing a 41% route participation overall, he still had a 22% TPRR even though he was barely active after a scare in Friday’s practice with his knee. He also still had a 16.8 ADOT as opposed to Kupp’s 5.4 ADOT. When you dive more into Miami’s pass defense, they are more stout up front, allowing only the 2nd fewest pass YPP (4.7) on passes 10 or less air yards with a .08 EPA/Pass on those passes which ranks 9th best in the NFL. Once you get further downfield, they start to give way. On passes traveling 11-20 air yards, they allow the 12th most pass YPP (10.2) and have the 13th worst EPA/Pass (+.45) allowed. On passes traveling 20 or more air yards, they have allowed the 10th highest pass YPP (13.5) and have the 8th worst EPA/Pass (+.45). On top of this, Miami’s pass defense overall has a 15.2% DVOA which is the 26th ranked pass DVOA in the NFL so far this season. Over the last two weeks with Tua back (and team’s pressing), the Dolphins allowed 30 points to Buffalo and 28 to Arizona. The Rams have back both stud offensive guards in Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila. When you pair that with the fact that Miami only has a 4% sack rate, this will give Stafford the clean pocket he needs to get Puka a bit further downfield for those explosive plays we covet rather than being forced to do nothing but quick hitters to Kupp.

Jaylen Waddle

I’m going to be upfront here, this play is propelled by two things because Waddle has not been a consistent player and is not someone I typically target in this scenario but there is enough there to push this play and my main attraction is the ceiling. There is a VERY real world here that Tyreek misses this game and if he doesn’t, he is extremely limited due to his wrist injury. In the four games with Tua under center, Waddle is clearly the WR2 behind Tyreek as he has seen a reduction across the board from him. Tyreek has a 12.8 ADOT, 46.7% air yard share, 76.5 YPG, 2.71 YPRR, and a 27.1% 1st read rate. THIS is someone I typically target here but like I mentioned, he is banged up on multiple fronts and Mike McDaniel has been skeptical in his press conferences if Tyreek can play when he usually has indicators such as he is optimistic. Behind Tyreek Waddle slides in with a 10.2 ADOT, 20.4% air yard share, 47.8 YPG, 1.85 YPRR, and a 15% 1st read rate. What is lost in these lines however is that in three of the four games Tua has played have been against the Bills (x2) and Arizona, who has been playing lights out lately. The Rams defense is starting to come on a little bit but it has been against the run that they started to play better against. They are still allowing the 2nd most pass YPG on passes 20+ air yards (63.3), the 4th most pass YPP (7.2), and the 10th most pass YPG (225.6). On the season they have allowed five WRs to have 115 or more receiving yards against them in a game and out of the eight games they have played, only twice has a team not had at least one WR hit 78 or more receiving yards and the two teams who failed to do so were the Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears, two very poorly coached teams on offense.

Jonnu Smith

Avoiding another long winded write up, this boils down to all of the data available in this article in the Waddle write up and below mixed with the fact Jonnu Smith has topped 35 receiving yards in two of the last three games with Tua as his QB and has had six targets in each of those three games.

Notes

MIA @ LAR -2.5 – u49

Rams are getting healthy and Miami is faltering. Rams win.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:

– MIA +0.00 EPA/Pass (9th most)

– MIA 4% Sack Rate (3rd lowest)

– MIA +.87 RYOE/Att (5th most)

– MIA 3.87 YACo/Att (most)

– MIA 1.1 Rush TDPG to RBs (2nd most)

– LAR 225.6 Pass YPG (10th most)

– LAR 7.2 Pass YPP (4th most)

– LAR 63.3 Pass YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)

– LAR 3.19 YACo/Att (7th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Odell Beckham Jr. (+295)