Week 12 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +159.63 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Justin Herbert o255.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Justin Herbert 300+ Passing Yards (+245): 1u – Draftkings
– Justin Herbert 325+ Passing Yards (+475): 2u – Draftkings
– Justin Herbert 350+ Passing Yards (+750): 1u – Caesars
– Ladd McConkey o64.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
– Will Dissly o40.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
– Quentin Johnston Longest Reception o22.5 (-110): 3u – Fanduel
– Lamar Jackson o42.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – MGM
– Justin Herbert 300+ Passing Yards, DET ML, GB ML Parlay (+531): 2u – Draftkings
Unofficial Bets
– Zay Flowers o58.5 Receiving Yards: Sticking with Chargers offense and Lamar’s legs.
– Rashod Bateman o37.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Zay.
– Gus Edwards u22.2 Rushing Yards: Horrible matchup for Gus but he has been vocal this is a revenge game for him. Don’t want to mess with that.
– JK Dobbins u47.5 Rushing Yards: Same as Gus. Not sure how strongly Dobbins feels. He is an emotional guy and probably uses everything to give motivation but he shouldn’t have any ill will against the Ravens. Not messing with that, just like Gus.
Breakdown
Justin Herbert
I’m not going to bore everyone, every week with how bad the Ravens pass defense is, see below for their stats. It feels like groundhogs day everytime I play a QB against the Ravens defense. Eight of the 11 QBs to face the Ravens have thrown for 269 or more yards against them with the three missing being Josh Allen in Week 4, which I’ve gone over multiple times why that game was weird, Bo Nix in Week 9, miss, and Russell Wilson last week ending at 205. Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind right now. Since Week 7 (5 games), he has thrown for an average of 274.2 YPG with a 9.02 YPA. He has 7 scores and no turnovers in that span with a 63.2% completion rate and a 10 ADOT. As always, this is a recipe for success as the Ravens offense will put up points and the Chargers will be unable to run the ball. Jim Harbaugh himself has said they are going to ride their horse and pass the ball at a higher rate moving forward.
Ladd McConkey & Will Dissly
These two have emerged as the top two receiving options for the Chargers over the last month as Herbert starts to take his game to the next level. Ladd has earned 26.1% of the team’s air yard share and has a 21% TPRR with Dissly having 14.6% of the teams air yards (good for a TE who has a 6.4 ADOT) and a ridiculous 28% TPRR. Ladd has a 23.2% 1st read target rate and Dissly has a 22.1% rate. Ladd enters this game with a 2.77 YPRR and Disley a 2.13 YPRR, both great for their respective positions. Over these five games Ladd has averaged 80.4 YPG and Dissly 48.2 YPG. Over Quentin Johnston’s last three games (he didn’t play Week 7 or 8) in this span, Johnston has a 23+ yard reception in two of the three and the other game he didn’t, he had a 16 yarder against the Titans. I fully expect him to get multiple opportunities to get there in this one.
Lamar Jackson
Since Week 6 the Chargers have allowed 38.5 rush yards per game to opposing QBs. Over that span, they are allowing 8.03 YPC, which is the highest mark in the NFL. Every mobile QB they have faced over that span has had success with Bo Nix having 6/61 in Week 6, Kyler Murray 6/64/1 in Week 7, Will Levis 5/41 in Week 10, and Joe Burrow 2/28 in Week 11. We also saw Jameis Winston run for 5/27 in Week 9 and the only QB who didn’t run for at least 27 was the combo of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener in Week 8 with them combining for 2/10 on the ground. We know how explosive Lamar can be on the ground and with this being a road game that I expect to be close with LA keeping pace with this Ravens offense, I fully expect Lamar to run the ball 6-9 times in this game and blow by his 42.5 line.
Notes
BAL -2.5 @ LAC – o50.5
These are the type of games the Ravens win historically but I’m not betting on it. Points will be scored.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
BAL
– 284.5 Pass YPG (most)
– 6.7 Pass YPP (6th most)
– +0.06 EPA/Pass (7th most)
– 31.7% QB Pressure Rate (10th lowest)
– 147 YPG on passes <10 air yards (2nd most)
– 100 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (most)
– 57.6 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– 189.4 YPG to WRs (most)
– 66.9 YPG to TEs (3rd most)
LAC
– 76.1 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (4th most)
– 4.7 Rush YPP (9th most)
– 3.36 YACo/Att (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Will Dissly (+250), Rashod Bateman (+250), Diontae Johnson (+750)
