Week 13 FNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +152.91 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Brock Bowers o57.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Brock Bowers 100+ Receiving Yards (+460): 1u – Caesars
– Brock Bowers 110+ Receiving Yards (+6750): 1u – Caesars
– Brock Bowers 120+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 1u – Caesars
– Noah Gray o20.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – Fanduel
Unofficial Bets
– Travis Kelce o53.5 Receiving Yards: See Gray breakdown below.
– Kareem Hunt o44.5 Rushing Yards: Attractive line but I don’t see him topping 12 carries.
– Jakobi Meyers o52.5 Receiving Yards: Prefer Bowers.
Breakdown
Brock Bowers
Throughout the year anytime we get a chance to attack the Chiefs with a TE, we do so. They are allowing the most YPG to opposing TEs (66.4) and the Raiders enter this game as 13 point underdogs. They get Aidan O’Connell back under center and he is going to absolutely pepper Bowers. In AOC’s two full starts from beginning to end, Bowers had insane usage. These two games came against two very good pass defenses in PIT and DEN. In those two games, he ran 62 routes (74.7 participation), saw a 33.1% air yard share with a 29.9% target share but a 37% TPRR to make it even more impressive. He added in a 2.71 YPRR with a preposterous 38.8% first read target rate. He finished with 12 targets against DEN, catching eight of them for 97 yards and a score. Against PIT he saw 10 targets, catching nine of them for 71 scoreless yards. As I mentioned, the Chiefs allow the most YPG to TEs and they haven’t played a single viable TE since Week 9 when Cade Otton caught eight of his 11 targets for 77 yards and a score. The last two weeks Dawson Knox caught four of his six targets for 40 yards even though he was banged up and in and out of the game and last week JT Sanders caught all three of his targets for 49 before getting concussed halfway through the game. Last week in the “new” offense under new OC, Scott Turner, Bowers had 10 targets which was a 19% TPRR and a 25% 1st read rate. You mix in AOC being back under center instead of Minshew, and we will see that 1st read rate back up over 30% and TPRR back closer to 30% as well. Double digit targets incoming for the rookie phenom.
Noah Gray
Even though the Chiefs added in Hopkins, Gray’s workload hasn’t changed. Since Week 7 Gray has a 50% or higher route participation with a TPRR 13% or higher in all but two of those games. He has eclipse 23 or more receiving yards in six of his last 8 games and the Raiders present a profitable matchup for him, allowing the 8th most receiving yards to TEs (56.4) per game. Over the last two weeks Gray actually has a higher TPRR (20%) than Kelce (19%). Gray has a 15% 1st read target rate to Kelce’s 22.5% but has a higher YPRR (1.93) to Kelce (1.13). I’d rather take a stab at Gray getting over 21 as opposed to Kelce getting to 54 in a game that Chiefs should control.
Notes
LV +13.5 @ KC – u42.5
I’ll always take a double digit underdog to cover against the Chiefs. Probably a low scoring game but I don’t have a great gauge on it.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LV
– +0.09 EPA/Pass (T2nd most)
– 5.0% Sack Rate (T5th lowest)
– 29.7% QB Pressure Rate (5th lowest)
– +0.52 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)
– +0.12 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– 56.4 YPG to TEs (8th most)
– +0.70 RYOE/Att (5th most)
KC
– 5.0% Sack Rate (T5th most)
– +0.09 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (4th most)
– 66.4 YPG to TEs (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Noah Gray (+330), Sincere McCormick (+650), Michael Mayer (+1100)
