Week 13 Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings. 

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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +192.27 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets
1pm
– Nico Collins o84.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Nico Collins 140+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u – Caesars
– Nico Collins 150+ Receiving Yards (+750): 1u – Caesars
– Nico Collins 160+ Receiving Yards (+950): 2u – Caesars
– Brian Thomas Jr. o59.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 10u – MGM
– Brian Thomas Jr. 110+ Receiving Yards (+500): 2u – Caesars
– Brian Thomas Jr. 120+ Receiving Yards (+700): 2u – Caesars
– Brian Thomas Jr. 130+ Receiving Yards (+950): 3u – Caesars
– Bijan Robinson o69.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Tony Pollard o64.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 3u – MGM
– Drake Maye o219.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– DK Metcalf o55.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Breece Hall u61.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM

4pm
– AJ Brown o86.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 10u – Draftkings
– AJ Brown 120+ Receiving Yards (+255): 2u – Draftkings 
– AJ Brown 140+ Receiving Yards (+425): 1u – Fanatics
– AJ Brown 155+ Receiving Yards (+750): 1u – Fanatics
– AJ Brown 170+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 2u – Fanatics
– Bucky Irving o56.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM 
– Puka Nacua o79.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Puka Nacua 130+ Receiving Yards (+490): 1u – Draftkings
– Puka Nacua 140+ Receiving Yards (+675): 1u – Draftkings
– Puka Nacua 150+ Receiving Yards (+900): 1u – Draftkings

8pm
– TBD

Unofficial Bets
– Evan Engram o5.5 Receptions: TLaw is back, expect him to pepper Engram.
– CJ Stroud o259.5 Passing Yards: He’ll hit but I’m focused on Nico. 
– Tank Dell o51.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Collins. If Nico doesn’t hit, Tank will.
– Demario Douglas o37.5 Receiving Yards: Prefer Maye. Douglas too inconsistent but this is an attractive line. 
– Ladd McConkey o66.5 Receiving Yards: He’s a beast but it felt lucky we got last week’s hit. I just don’t trust this offense to get Ladd enough targets on a consistent basis even though it is a good matchup. 
– Breece Hall u62.5 Rushing Yards: Seahawks Run D has done a 180 since getting healthier and there was some weird injury news around Breece this week. He is probably fine and this falls under the unofficial category but I don’t think he has a good game on the ground this week.
– George Pickens o72.5 Receiving Yards: I think Pickens gets there but I really don’t want to bet against this Bengals defense right now. They are playing much better as the season progresses. I’d rather target elsewhere. 
– Chase Brown o65.5 Rushing Yards: Insane usage since Zack Moss got hurt and went on IR. He has seen 92% of the Bengals rush attempts the last three games but Head Coach Zac Taylor has expressed concern with that and wants to tone it back if he can. The Steelers aren’t a run defense I want to target so if he isn’t seeing a locked in 20+ carries, I’ll just look elsewhere and be fine if I miss out on Brown this week.
– Cam Akers o19.5 Rushing Yards: Same logic as last week but he saw a dip down to 3 carries last week with Jones back up to 22. Getting hard to predict when Akers will see those 10ish carries so I’ll sit this one out.
– Cooper Kupp o67.5 Receiving Yards: Focusing on Puka.
– Derek Carr to Throw an INT: Almost played this one. The Rams pass rush is elite. Carr is horrible under pressure. I also like Rams DST to score a TD here at +475.
– Mike Evans o60.5 Receiving Yards: I think this hits. Closest of all the unofficial plays to being official and if we have a good 1pm slate I’m adding it. See below why this matchup is elite. 
– Xavier Legette o38.5 Receiving Yards: Great matchup but I’m concerned with usage. David Moore led the team last week with a 26% share and Legette’s volume has dropped each of the last two weeks. Not worth the stab. 
– Zay Flowers o58.5 Receiving Yards: This is the type of matchup Zay and Andrews eat but I’m sitting it out on both of them. I want all my chips in the AJ Brown basket. He is going to absolutely roast this Ravens secondary. 

Breakdown
Nico Collins
You can argue Nico has been the best and most consistent WR in the NFL this year and if it weren’t for the two irrelevant penalties calling back a 77 yard TD and a 35 yard TD, Nico would be the fantasy WR1 overall in the last two weeks since his return. Over those two games Nico only has a 65.4% route participation, which I expect to grow back to near 100% in this game. He has 37.8% of the air yards for the Texans and a 31% TPRR. There isn’t a concern with Nico’s talent or anything at all. In this game the Texans face the Jaguars who are literally with the worst statistics in terms of pass defense (see below). The one that stands out the most to me is their inability to get to the passer. They hold the 3rd lowest QB Pressure Rate (29.2%) and 4th lowest Sack Rate (4.9%). The further downfield we go, the worse the Jaguars are as they have allowed the most YPG on passes 20+ air yards (71.3) and have the 3rd worst EPA/Pass (+1.09) on those throws. They have also allowed the 2nd most YPG to WRs this year (183.6). I love CJ Stroud in this one but his line is floating above 260 so I would just rather lean heavier on Nico. 

Bijan Robinson
The Falcons coming off of a Bye week with the Chargers traveling across the country alone is enough to hit Bijan but this is a great matchup for him as well. Over their last four games the Chargers have allowed the 3rd highest YPC (4.99) and have the 2nd worst EPA/Rush (+0.15) allowed. I like Tyler Allgeier here in this spot as well. The Chargers offense could be in some serious trouble moving forward as well with JK Dobbins. If they have no run game, I have absolutely no confidence in Offensive Coordinator, Greg Roman, to develop a pass centric offense on a consistent basis. If the Falcons start to pull away, I think we get one of those 60+ games for Allgeier.

Tony Pollard
The Titans are coming off of a high divisional win so there is a chance they fall flat here but I think the opposite will happen. Will Levis is starting to play better and is seemingly much more confident in the pocket and commanding this offense. Due to this, Pollard is coming off a game in which he accrued 119 yards on the ground on 24 carries. While the Commanders pass defense has improved, their run defense has not. They have been poor all year, allowing the third highest YPC (5.03) and have allowed the most rushing yards (1,449) in the NFL to opposing backs. They have allowed at least one RB to hit 66 or more rushing yards in each of their last five games with plays like Swift (18/129/1) and Barkley (26/146/2) far exceeding that number. This is yet another game I think the Commanders lose so I’m not concerned with gameflow at all or the Titans being 5.5 underdogs. The Kliff cliff is real and I’ll attack it every week. 

Drake Maye
Looping back to last week with Goff, the Colts have now allowed four of their last five opponents to throw for at least 269 yards against them in a game. On the flip side with Maye, he is coming into his own and getting more and more comfortable in this offense, throwing for at least 222 in each of his last two games with pass attempt totals of 37 and 39. I expect the Colts to score against the Patriots and I would be on AR or JT but the lines are just too high for me to confidently say who gets the volume for the Colts and how they do it, but they will score. I expect another 35+ Pass Attempt game for Maye and a YPA north of 7.5, comfortably getting him over 220. 

DK Metcalf 
Since Woody Johnson went and fired Head Coach Robert Saleh, pulling Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich away from his duties to run the team, the Jets defense has been ass. Over that span they have the 3rd highest EPA/Pass allowed and have allowed the 6th highest YPA (8.11). In a correlated result, they have allowed the 8th highest YPT to opposing WRs (9.12). Over that six game span they allowed four WRs to have 74 or more receiving yards and over the last three games it has continued to get worse. When you pull the last month of the season the Jets are allowing a 8.68 YPA which is 4th highest in the NFL and a 10.52 YPT to opposing WRs which is 5th highest in the NFL. DK Metcalf himself has 55 or more receiving yards in all but one game since Week 2 and that game he had 48 receiving yards. Since coming back from his injury these last two weeks he has seen 14 targets, catching 11 of them for 129 yards with 59 and 70 in those two games. He has an 88% route participation with 50.5% of the Seahawks air yards with a 21% TPRR but a 32.4% 1st read rate. 

ADDED (11/30/24 @ 7:32pm)

Brian Thomas Jr.

A little disappointed in myself for not being on this from the get go but at least we got to it Saturday night. Brian Thomas has been an absolute beast this year as a rookie and has exceeded all expectations so far. This week Doug Pederson got candid at the podium and admitted that he is basically giving the keys to Trevor Lawrence for the plays (why didn’t he before?) because essentially he knows he has one foot out the door. When asked about Lawrence’s restrictions Pederson said “He’s full go. We put a full game plan together. Basically, just things that he wants, he likes. Good for our offense and let him go play. So, nothing’s held back.” Why the fuck were’t they doing this before? Whatever, I digress. On top of that, Offensive Coordinator Press Taylor (in regards to Brian Thomas Jr.) “We gotta continue to find and give opportunities to him. He is dynamic for us, so he needs opportunities to get the football.” When you mix these two together, a healthy Trevor Lawrence who wants to rip it downfield, we have the beginnings of a 10u play. The next part comes with the matchup. At first glance nothing sticks out because the Texans have largely had a solid defense on paper. However, digging more into it, I noticed they have been gashed by opposing WRs since Week 6. Over their last seven games they have allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing WRs (170.4) per game and the 2nd most overall. Over that span (starting in Week 6) they allowed Kayshon Boutte go 3/59/1, Demario Douglas 6/92/1, Romeo Doubs 8/94, Josh Downs 4/109/1, Davante Adams 7/91/1, Garrett Wilson 9/90/2, Amon-Ra St. Brown 6/60/1, Jameson Williams 3/53, CeeDee Lamb 8/93, KaVontae Turpin 3/86/1, Tyler Boyd 6/55, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 2/48/1, and Calvin Ridley 5/93. Last week along we were all tuned in as we had the Texans spread and watched first hand Will Levis sling the ball downfield to wide open WR after wide open WR. On top of that, we watched slow and cooked Tyler Boyd break tackles for big gains. With how poor the Jaguars defense is, there is next to no chance they won’t be forced to throw the ball at a high clip with the Texans expected to put up near 30 points on the other side. If they play loose and let Lawrence guide this offense, the first game like this after a Bye week usually ends in a huge burst for the offense. This won’t last long term but I don’t care about Week 14 right now.

AJ Brown
This one is kind of self explanatory if you’ve been following along with these articles this year. The Ravens have allowed the most YPG to opposing WRs (185.8) and have been destroyed in the air. We have seen gaudy games from opposing WR1s this year against the Ravens such as Ja’Marr Chase going for 264 on 11 snags. We have also recently seen Ladd McConkey go 6/83, George Pickens 8/89, Courtland Sutton 7/122, Cedric Tillman 7/99, Elijah Moore 8/85, and Jerry Jeudy 5/79. The Eagles visit the Ravens and are 3 point underdogs. Regardless of how well the Eagles defense is playing, no one slows down, let alone stops the Ravens offense. The Eagles will have to throw to stay in it unless Saquon Barkley breaks the mold and has success against this stone walled Ravens run defense. 

Bucky Irving
Like above, you know how this write up goes if you’ve been here the last year and a half. Since Week 4 the Panthers have allowed at least one RB hit 71 RBs in all but one game and that was against the Broncos poor run offense and we still had Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combine for 91 rushing yards on 25 carries. 

Puka Nacua
Anytime the Rams play inside, sign me up. The Saints have been hit for the 3rd most YPG to opposing WRs (178.1) this year along with a ton of other poor pass D stats (see below). They are fresh off of allowing Jerry Jeudy to hit 142 on six receptions and before that Drake London got to 97 on eight snags and Darnell Mooney got 96 on five snags. Over the past month with the Rams fully healthy, Puka has surpassed Kupp as the WR1 of this team. He has a 35% TPRR, 33.8% air yard share, a 3.27 YPRR, a 33.1% 1st read target rate and with all of that he has turned his 9.8 TPG into 8.25 R{G and 91 YPG. 

Notes
HOU -3.5 @ JAX – o44
Maybe I’m just waiting out for something that won’t come but I refuse to believe the Texans offense doesn’t get it together. They feel so close and the worst pass D is just what the doctor ordered. TLaw will be back for JAX so I think they keep it close.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
HOU
– 156.4 YPG to WRs (8th most)
– 45 Explosive Runs
– 3.20 YACo/Att (T6th most)

JAX
– 278.3 Pass YPG (most)
– 8.47 YPA (most)
– +0.24 EPA/Pass (most)
– 4.9% Sack Rate (4th lowest)
– 29.2% QB Pressure Rate (T3rd lowest)
– 71.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– +1.09 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– 79.2 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (5th most)
– 139.7 YPG on passes <10 air yards (6th most)
– 183.6 YPG to WRs (2nd most)
– 57.8 YPG to TEs (7th most)
– +0.18 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (most)
– +0.01 EPA/Rush (6th most)
– 42 Explosive Runs (T7th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Evan Engram (+250), Dalton Schultz (+360), Cade Stover (+700)

IND -2.5 @ NE – o42.5
Don’t feel strong about this but I don’t think this defense is good enough to contain AR. Should be a better game than it seems on paper. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
IND
– 233.3 Pass YPG (6th most)
– 7.57 YPA (9th most)
– 6.3% Sack Rate (10th lowest)
– 51.1 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– +0.60 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (3rd most)
– 136.3 YPG on passes <10 air yards (8th most)
– +0.07 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T7th most)
– 156.8 YPG to WRs (7th most)
– 55.3 YPG to TEs (9th most)
– 116.58 Rush YPG to RBs (5th most)
– 52 Explosive Runs (most)
– 3.25 YACo/Att (4th most)

NE
– 7.56 YPA (T10th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (T5th most)
– 30.2% QB Pressure Rate (7th lowest)
– +0.59 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (4th most)
– 161.5 YPG to WRs (6th most)
– 4.59 YPC to RBs (T10th most)
– 112.33 YPG to RBs (7th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Adonai Mitchell (+275), Hunter Henry (+275), Drake Maye (+340), Austin Hooper (+450), 

LAC @ ATL +1 – u47.5
I’m not betting against the Falcons at home off of a Bye when the Chargers have to travel across the country and will be without JK Dobbins. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LAC
– +0.98 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– 4.78 YPC to RBs (6th most)
– 41 Explosive Runs (10th most)
– 3.39 YACo/Att (3rd most)

ATL
– 229.9 Pass YPG (7th most)
– +0.08 EPA/Pass (4th most)
– 2.4% Sack Rate (lowest)
– 26.3% AB Pressure Rate (2nd lowest)
– 73.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (10th most)
– +0.56 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (T6th most)
– 134.2 YPG on passes <10 air yards (10th most)
– 152.4 YPG to WRs (10th most)
– 1.66 YBCo/Att (10th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Kyle Pitts (+260), Hassan Haskins (+400), 

SEA -.5 @ NYJ – u42
The outcome of this game depends if the Jets have quit or not. I think they have and the Seahawks are playing better of late as they get healthy so I think they pull off the win.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
SEA
– 141.5 YPG on passes <10 air yards (5th most)
– 113 YPG to RBs (6th most)
– 4.91 YPC to RBs (4th most)
– +0.00 EPA/Rush (T7th most)
– +0.81 RYOE/Att (3rd most)
– 3.59 YACo/Att (2nd most)

NYJ
– 48 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)
– +0.70 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (most)
– -0.01 EPA/Rush (T7th most)
– 42 Explosive Runs (T7th most)
– 3.17 YACo/Att (T8th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: AJ Barner (+400)

TEN +6 @ WAS – u44.5
The Kliff cliff is real. Titans win. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
TEN 
– None

WAS
– +0.08 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T5th most)
– 120.75 YPG to RBs (2nd most)
– 5.03 YPC to RBs (3rd)
– 48 Explosive Runs (T2nd most)
– 2.07 YBCo/Att (4th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: None

PIT @ CIN -3 – u47.5
Wild to see the Bengals favored here, Vegas won’t be fooled. Bengals win, probably cover and Steelers struggle to score TDs.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
PIT 
– 137.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (7th most)
– +0.06 EPA/Pass <10 air yards (T10th most)

CIN
– 225.6 Pass YPG (10th most)
– +0.03 EPA/Pass (9th most)
– 4.5% Sack Rate (3rd lowest)
– 31.8% QB Pressure Rate (10th lowest)
– 78.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (7th most)
– +0.49 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (T10th most)
– 155.7 YPG to WRs (9th most)
– 62.2 YPG to TEs (3rd most)
– +0.02 EPA/Rush (5th most)
– +0.73 RYOE/Att (4th most)
– +3.20 YACo/Att (7th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Tanner Hudson (+850)

ARI +3.5 @ MIN – u45
Two teams on the up face off. Don’t have a great gauge as this is a great matchup between the coaching staffs so I’ll just take the points. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
ARI 
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T10th most)
– 29.2% QB Pressure Rate (T3rd)
– +0.49 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (T10th most)
– 143.2 YPG on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– +0.18 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (Tmost)
– +0.00 EPA/Rush (T7th most)

MIN 
– 242.5 Pass YPG (5th most)
– 49.2 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (6th most)
– 85.9 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (2nd most)
– 172.9 YPG to WRs (4th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Michael Wilson (+320), Cam Akers (+350),  ARI DST (+475)

LAR -2.5 @ NO – u49.5
The Saints burst from firing Dennis Allen has to give out eventually and no better time than against the Rams. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LAR
– 8.23 YPA (2nd most)
– +0.04 EPA/Pass (8th most)
– 49.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– +0.07 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T7th most)
– 116.82 YPG to RBs (4th most)
– 4.59 YPC to RBs (T10th most)
– -0.01 EPA/Rush (T9th most)
– +0.62 RYOE/Att (7th most)
– 3.23 YACo/Att (5th most)

NO
– 256.6 Pass YPG (3rd most)
– 7.64 YPA (7th most)
– 5.6% Sack Rate (8th most)
– 30% QB Pressure Rate (7th most)
– 47.8 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (9th most)
– 78.7 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (8th most)
– 144.4 YPG on passes <10 air yards (2nd most)
– 178.1 YPG to WRs (3rd most)
– 60.0 YPG to TEs (6th most)
– 108.91 YPG to RBs (9th most)
– 5.05 YPC to RBs (2nd most)
– +0.06 EPA/Rush (3rd most)
– +0.62 RYOE/Att (7th most)
– 2.22 YBCo/Att (most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Demarcus Robinson (+280), Juwan Johnson (+310), LAR DST (+475), Tutu Atwell (+750)

TB @ CAR +5.5 – u46.5
Panthers are showing more improvement over the last month than they have in years. You know by now how I feel about division home underdogs. Will Todd Bowles stop his former OC? Bryce Young continues his argument to be the Panthers 2025 Week 1 starter. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:

TB
– 255.5 Pass YPG (4th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (T5th most)
– +0.48 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (T9th most)
– 79.1 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (6th most)
– +0.56 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (T9th most)
– 162.3 YPG on passes <10 air yards (most)
– +0.06 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T10th)
– 60.2 YPG to TEs (5th most)
– 4.65 YPC to RBs (8th most)
– 2.11 YBCo/Att (3rd most)
– +0.56 RYOE/Att (10th most)

CAR
– 226.7 Pass YPG (9th most)
– 7.56 YPA (T10th most)
– +0.09 EPA/Pass (2nd most)
– 4.4% Sack Rate (2nd lowest)
– 26.1% QB Pressure Rate (lowest)
– +0.56 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (T6th most)
– +0.49 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)
– 61.1 YPG to TEs (4th most)
– 129.45 YPG to RBs (most)
– 4.72 YPC to RBs (7th most)
– 42 Explosive Runs (T7th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Rush
– 2.00 YBCo/Att (5th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Adam Thielen (+260)

PHI @ BAL -3 – o51
Only way this doesn’t fly by the over is if both teams fail to get in the box but no defense has proven able to do that so far. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:

PHI
– 30.9% QB Pressure Rate (8th lowest)

BAL
– 277.7 Pass YPG (2nd most)
– 7.61 YPA (8th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (T5th)
– 52.8 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– 103 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (most)
– +0.57 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (5th most)
– 141.6 YPG on passes <10 air yards (4th most)
– +0.07 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T7th)
– 185.8 YPG to WRs (most)
– 65.8 YPG to TEs (2nd most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Isaiah Likely (+290), Johnny Wilson (+650)

SF @ BUF -6.5 – u44.5
I’m not overly confident Buffalo covers but I think they win. This would be a tough one for the Niners to come in and pull off the upset but I’ve seen crazier. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
SF
– None

BUF
– 135.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (9th most)
– +0.08 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T5th most)
– 4.63 YPC to RBs (9th most)
– 1.79 YBCo/Att (8th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Keon Coleman (+280), Jauan Jennings (+275), BUF DST (+425), Brock Purdy (+750)