Week 13 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +154.82 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Jerry Jeudy o57.5 Receiving Yards (-135): 5u – MGM
– Jerry Jeudy 110+ Receiving Yards (+650): 1u – Caesars
– Jerry Jeudy 120+ Receiving Yards (+900): 2u – Caesars
– Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards (-140): 5u – ESPNBet
Unofficial Bets
– Devaughn Vele o34.5 Receiving Yards: Prefer Sutton with CLE running mostly man coverage.
Breakdown
Jerry Jeudy
Did someone say revenge game? Jeudy is visiting Denver for the first time since they sent him to Cleveland for a bucket of balls. Jeudy has come into his own lately with Winston under center as he finally is in a pass happy offense with a QB who slings it. Over his last four games Jeudy has averaged 94.8 YPG, seeing a 29% air yard share with a 22% TPRR and an 89.4% route participation. He is averaging 8.8 TPG and has 73 or more receiving yards in all four games, hitting a high of 142 against the Saints in Week 11 on the back of a long 89 yard TD. He has a 25.2% 1st read target rate with a 2.37 YPRR and 10.83 YPT. Over these four games Jeudy leads the team in route participation, air yard share, targets, 1st read target rate, YPT, YPRR, and YAC/Rec. You name it, Jeudy is leading the team and is emerging as the team’s alpha, go to WR for Jameis Winston. This week the Browns will be without perimeter WR, Cedric Tillman, further condensing down the target tree to mainly just Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku. And no, I’m not worried about Patrick Surtain. Since Week 7, the Broncos are allowing 151.8 YPG to opposing WRs which ranks 14th most over that time frame. Usually this isn’t a glaring number I target but over this span they have allowed at least one WR in all six of their games they played in that span to have at least 56 or more receiving yards. The Broncos have been unable to shut down opposing team’s WR1s with guys like Zay Flowers (5/127/2), DeAndre Hopkins (4/56/0), Drake London (3/61/0), and Jakobi Meyers (10/121/0) all getting home in recent weeks. They have even allowed pure perimeter WRs like Jalen Coker (4/78/1) and Tre Tucker (7/82) find success recently. Also, one component to this pass defense has been rookie Riley Moss, who will miss this game. I don’t expect Surtain to travel and I fully expect Jeudy to get ample chances from Jameis Winston, who is fully aware of the situation at hand and is going to do his best to help Jeudy get his “revenge” in this game.
Courtland Sutton
Over the Broncos last five games, Courtland Sutton is on a torrid pace. He is averaging 93.4 YPG and has fully emerged as Nix’s go-to guy. Over this span he has 45% of the team’s air yards, a 31% TPRR, 2.99 YPRR, and a 32.1% 1st read rate. He has at least 70 yards in all five of these games, with 97+ in three of the five. He has at least eight targets in all five and double digit targets in three of the five. Over the last eight weeks the Browns defense is allowing the highest YPA allowed to opposing QBs (8.89), the highest YPT to opposing WRs (11.35), and the 5th most YPG to opposing WRs (175.1). With how the Broncos’ offense is playing and the Browns defense, things would have to go sideways for Sutton to not hit 60 receiving yards in this one.
Notes
CLE +6 @ DEN – o41.5
I’ll take the gun slinger to cover but I do think the Broncos cover. I think both offenses have success.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CLE
– 7.95 YPA (4th most)
– 60 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– +0.61 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (6th most)
– +0.83 RYOE/Att (2nd most)
– 46 Explosive Runs (4th most)
DEN
– +0.48 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (9th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: David Njoku (+270), DeVaughn Vele (+295), DEN DST (+425)
