Week 14 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
NOTE: Please remember that I am betting with the notion we are up 195.27u. If you are not in the same spot, scale down. I’m at the point where I’m playing twice as heavy per bet due to this, just stacking day on top of day. If units are tighter for you, scale down your risk.
1u -> 2u
2u -> 3u
3u -> 5u
5u -> 10u
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +184.88 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
1pm
– Will Levis o208.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Calvin Ridley o60.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 10u – MGM
– Calvin Ridley 110+ Receiving Yards (+500): 1u – Caesars
– Calvin Ridley 120+ Receiving Yards (+750): 1u – Caesars
– Calvin Ridley 130+ Receiving Yards (+950): 2u – Caesars
– Parker Washington o29.5 Reception Yards (-114): 10u – Fanduel
– Parker Washington 65+ Receiving Yards (+550): 2u – Fanatics
– Parker Washington 80+ Receiving Yards (+950): 2u – Draftkings
– Tyron Tracy o58.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Tyron Tracy 100+ Rushing Yards (+525): 1u – Caesars
– Tyron Tracy 110+ Rushing Yards (+750): 1u – Caesars
– Tyron Tracy 120+ Rushing Yards (+1100): 2u – Caesars
– Brock Bowers o66.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– George Pickens o68.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Grant Calcaterra o21.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Grant Calcaterra 1+ TD (+480): 1u – Fanduel
– Kenneth Gainwell 20+ Rushing Yards (-120): 3u – ESPNBet
ALT Parlay: Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ Receiving Yards, Tyron Tracy 120+ Rushing Yards, Calvin Ridley 130+ Receiving Yards (+29336): 1u – Caesars
4pm
– Puka Nacua 70+ Receiving Yards (-140): 5u – Draftkings
– Trey McBride o6.5 Receptions (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Deebo Samuel o7.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 5u – MGM
– Deebo Samuel 30+ Rushing Yards (+550): 1u – Caesars
– Deebo Samuel 40+ Rushing Yards (+1200): 3u – Draftkings
8pm
– TBD
Unofficial Bets
– Jameis Winston o243.5 Passing Yards: I’m concerned with gameflow and volume. I’ll hit live if things get weird.
– Elijah Moore o49.5 Receiving Yards: Steelers historically are bad vs. the slot, where Elijah primarily lines up. But they have a Top 5 EPA against slot WRs so I’m holding off.
– Alvin Kamara o80.5 Rushing Yards: Great matchup but I’m concerned with them getting Kendre Miller involved mixed with the Giants hoarding clock.
– Kendre Miller o27.5 Rushing Yards: I want to take advantage of this short line with how the coaching staff is pumping up Kendre but I’m holding off. Unlikely to be a live hit unless Saints somehow dominate and go up big early.
– Darius Slayton Receiving Yards: This isn’t up because of Malik Nabers availability up in the air but when it releases I’ll take a look at it. With Lock in and Nabers likely out, they are going to pepper Slayton.
– De’Von Achane o4.5 Receptions: Has hit in four of his last six games and has at least 3+ in all six games.
– Travis Etienne o38.5 Rushing Yards: Sweat likely misses and this one is really attractive but I have just enough reservation on the ETN/Bigsby split to sit this one out and focus on Parker.
– Tank Bigsby o33.5 Rushing Yards: Same as ETN. Both attractive lines. One will hit. Not sure which.
– Drake London o67.5 Receiving Yards: I think London gets there but I’m staying clear of this game from the Atlanta side.
– Aaron Jones o61.5 Rushing Yards: The Vikings getting Josh Oliver back, which is a big part of their run blocking scheme at TE. Solid matchup. Very close to being an official play.
– Cam Akers o18.5 Rushing Yards: Same as Jones. He has been a consistent spell with 19+ rush yards in each of his last five games. I’ll eye live as it’ll probably drop with Jones dominating the 1st two drives.
– Mike Evans o68.5 Receiving Yards: Will they go for Evans having a 1,000 yard season?
– Bucky Irving o66.5 Rushing Yards: I’m concerned with his workload, especially if the Bucs roll. I’d prefer to eye a Sean Tucker live line.
– Jakobi Meyers o61.5 Receiving Yards: Prefer Bowers but love Meyers too.
– Isaac Guerendo u15.5 Rush Attempts: I’m hesitant that Shanahan just gives him the keys to an elite workload.
– Kyren Williams o66.5 Rushing Yards: This one may become official if we have a good 1pm slate. Kyren is back with a pop and I’m gaining confidence in this ground game against a poor run defense.
Breakdown
Will Levis
We attack the Jags weekly so I won’t bore you with those obvious reasons and their main defensive stats are below. This week, Will Levis gets a crack at them. Over Levis’ last three games he has shown vast improvements. He has thrown for 261.7 YPG and has a 8.53 YPA, throwing for at least 212 yards in all three games and topping 278 in the other two. His average pass attempt travels 9.7 yards and has a 15.2% deep throw rate. The only two QBs to face the Jags this year and NOT throw for at least 226 was a Week 8 Jordan Love who had 196 yards on only 22 attempts (8.91 YPA) and a dogshit Deshaun Watson in Week 2 who had 186.
Calvin Ridley
Again, we attack the Jags weekly and this is no different. This is a peak revenge game for Ridley, who we have seen throughout this season, is a prototypical diva WR. Among the chickenpox amount of poor defensive stats below you’ll find that the Jags have allowed the 3rd most YPG (181.4) to opposing WRs. They are also allowing the most YPG on passes 20+ yards (70.6) and have the 3rd worst EPA/Pass (+1.02) on passes 20+ air yards. Over the past month we have seen opposing WRs shred the Jaguars with DeVonta Smith going for 4/87/1 on six targets in Week 9, Amon-Ra St. Brown went for 11/161/2 on 11 targets, Jameson Williams going 4/124/1 on six targets in the same game, and Nico Collins going 8/119 on 11 targets last week, and we all know Nico left some yards on the field with drops and penalties. Calvin Ridley is simply up next and when you pair a great matchup against man coverage, where Ridley has a 2.77 YPRR, with his 46.7% air yard share, 16.7 ADOT, 15.79 YPR, 8.08 YPT, 29.4% 1st read target rate, and then throw all of that in a bucket and sprinkle revenge game on top, we have ourselves the fixings of a top tier ladder.
Tyron Tracy
I think we’re beyond the fumble benching as Singletary played more in the 1st half on Thanksgiving but in the 2nd half, Daboll handed the keys back to Tracy. So, we basically had a soft 1st half benching. The Saints just got gashed by Kyren Williams for 104 yards on only 15 carries with Blake Corum spelling him for 42 rushing yards on only 8 carries. The week before that, the shell of Nick Chubb ran for 50 yards on 11 carries and then prior to that we saw Bijan Robinson hit 116 on 20 carries and just venturing even further, Chuba Hubbard 15/72/2, JK Dobbins 17/57/1, Javonte Williams (lol) 14/88/2, Jaleel McLaughlin 4/35, Audric Estime 5/29, Sean Tucker 14/136/1, Bucky Irving 14/81/1, Kareem Hunt (lol) 22/108/1, and so on. On the season they have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (118.1) and 8th highest YPC (4.61). They have the 2nd highest EPA/Rush (+0.07) and many more poor bottom 10 stats below. Since Week 3 (just removing the two anomaly games to start the season), the Saints are allowing a 5.46 YPC to opposing backs and the 2nd most rushing YPG to opposing backs (124.4) behind only the Panthers, who are allowing 131.9 Rush YPG since Week 3. There is next to no chance the Saints pull away here to the point of the Giants benching their guys and honestly, the Giants probably win this game at home even though they are 4.5 point dogs.
Parker Washington
To be honest, it doesn’t even matter the matchup with these lines that we were given but this is low key a good matchup. The first 4 games of the season, the Titans were the best pass defense in the NFL, allowing only 95.75 YPG to opposing WRs and a league best 5.98 YPT. After that game, their star CB and off-season acquisition, L’Jarius Sneed, went down with an injury and has missed every game since. In those eight games since Week 6, the Titans are now allowing 140.9 YPG to opposing WRs and 7.47 YPT. This has especially picked up over the last month for the Titans. Since Week 10 they are allowing the 10th highest YPA (7.64). To opposing WRs, their numbers have jumped to 160 YPG and 9.28 YPT. They are being ripped on the edges which has resulted in the 8th worst EPA/Pass over that span at least two WRs in every one of those four games to hit 35+ receiving yards and at least one TE in three of the four to hit 30+ and the only miss was in Week 12 against the Texans who had Schultz and Stover combine for five receptions for 46 yards and a score. At least one WR in all four games has topped 52 and in each of their last three games at least one WR has 72 or more receiving yards with four total over that mark and five total with 61 or more receiving yards. As I’ve mentioned above with Levis and Ridley, I expect the Titans offense to have a good game, which further drives this home. The main point of why I’m on Parker Washington stems from his Week 13 performance mixed with Mac Jones being the QB and this coaching staff loving Washington. This coaching staff is on the way out and as I mentioned last week, they seem to have let their hair down and let the players drive this offense. With that, they love Parker Washington and it seems they are giving him a chance to prove himself for sustainability in the NFL as a WR. Last week he saw the highest route participation (86.7%) on the team with the most targets (12) and highest TPRR (31%). He had a respectable ADOT of 12.6 with a big boy NFL 2.64 YPRR. On top of that, he actually led the Jaguars with a 31.4% 1st read rate and accounted for 37.3% of the team’s receiving yards. The cherry on top of all of this is the fact that Mac Jones was the backup for this season for the Jaguars and Parker Washington was on the receiving end for a lot of Jones’ practice reps. This usually gets overlooked when backup QBs take over but there is a ton of merit to the fact Jones has built a relationship with Washington and with how the coaches are coaching, they absolutely will be taking that into account. This line is just simply too good not to hammer give his recent success and the downward trend of the Titans defense mixed in with all of these other variables.
Brock Bowers
I think we all had fun last Friday with Bowers hitting 140 receiving yards and I’m going back to the well here this week. On top of Bowers being an absolute beast, the Bucs are a prime matchup for the rookie TE. They have allowed the 2nd most YPG to opposing TEs (66.92) and the 7th most YPT (8.42) to them. They blitz a lot and AOC is a statue in the pocket. They will look to get the ball out quick and pepper Bowers and set him up for some YAC chances, a spot in which he excels.
George Pickens
On the season the Browns have allowed the 2nd most YPG on passes 20+ yards (65.4) and have the 6th highest EPA/Pass (+0.61) allowed on those passes. In a correlated area, they have allowed the 6th highest YPG to opposing WRs (165) and the highest YPT (9.61). Since Week 5 opposing perimeter WRs have gashed the Browns. Starting from that week, McLaurin accrued 112 on 4 catches, AJ Brown 6/116, Tee Higgins 4/82 and Chase 5/55, Zay Flowers 7/115, Quentin Johnston 4/118, Ladd McConkey 5/64, Joshua Palmer 2/63, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2/87, Marvin Mims 3/105, and Courtland Sutton 6/102. The last time these teams met, Pickens was held to 4/48 on seven targets while Calvin Austin was the recipient of the big play, catching three balls for 78 yards but Pickens had the volume. This game is the ONLY game with Russ under center in which Pickens didn’t hit 74 or more receiving yards. This also was a snow game with some wind impacting deeper, lofty passes that Russ loves to target Pickens on. Since Russ took over in Week 7 (6 games), Pickens has been a true alpha WR1. He has a 86.4% route participation, 44.3% air yard share, 24% TPRR, 81.2 YPG, 2.65 YPRR, and a 34.5% 1st read rate. I have volume reservations to fully blow this thing up into a ladder but I’m quite confident he will have all of the volume needed against a very exploitable matchup to get over 70+ receiving yards.
Kenneth Gainwell
This one is simple. I’m just attacking the Panthers with Gainwell because the line is much more obtainable on 5-8 carries for Gainwell and I want a piece of this offense. I love Barkley in this game but I’d rather stab at Gainwell spelling throughout the game and breaking a run than Barkley playing all 4Q. I think the Eagles could use this game to throw more and get AJ Brown his production since it has been lacking lately and I was closer to making AJ Brown official than I was Saquon. On the season, opposing backfields failed to have two RBs hit 25+ rushing yards in a game in only three of the Panthers 12 games. Those three games came in Week 12 when only Kareem Hunt (16/68) topped 25 with Samaje Perine and Carson Steele both combining for 2/17 on the ground. The next time this happened was in Week 9 against the Saints when Alvin Kamara ran the ball 29 times for 155 yards (lol) but his running mate, Jordan Mims, only got to 13 on five carries. The last occurrence was all the way back in Week 3 when the Panthers demolished the Raiders in Vegas, holding Zamir White to 34 rushing yards on 10 attempts and Alexander Mattison to 7 rushing yards on 3 attempts. This run defense is brutal and depleted of talent. I’ll be eying a late target in this game too trying to snipe a lopsided alt line with Gainwell in the 2nd half.
Puka Nacua
I’m riding the Puka train until further notice. Since returning in Week 8 and the Rams displaying their fully healthy offense, Puka is the WR1 over Cooper Kupp, and this includes a game in which Puka played only a quarter after being ejected for throwing a punch. He has more targets (57 to 53), a higher TPRR (36% to 28%), more YPG (85.2 to 69.7), higher ADOT (9.9 to 7.4), higher air yard share (32.9% to 22.6%), higher YPRR (3.19 ELITE to 2.22), higher YPT (8.96 to 7.89), and higher 1st read rate (34.2% to 30.9%). Essentially every single category Puka is better than Kupp and McVay knows it. This week the Rams host the Buffalo Bills, who are a tougher matchup to the eyes than they are on paper for WRs. They are allowing the 5th highest EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (+0.07). From Week 8 to Week 12, so essentially the four games before the useless snow game in Week 13, the Bills are allowing 9.23 YPT to opposing WRs and 139 YPG. While the 139 YPG isn’t a gaudy number, the main reason for this is because they can have long, drowned out drives, which I will admit is why I am not laddering Puka here. However, I can’t ignore that over this recent four week span we saw JSN go 6/69 on seven targets, Tyreek Hill go 4/80 on five targets, Josh Downs 7/72 on 10 targets, AD Mitchell 6/71 on six targets, Alec Pierce 4/81/1 on seven targets, Xavier Worthy 4/61/1 on five targets and even last week in the snow Jauan Jennings got 3/56 on five targets. If you’ve noticed I’ve been afraid to attack the Rams recently, and I’m not attacking them here, because I think their defense is improving as the season has gone on with a young rookie Defensive Coordinator and one of the youngest units in the NFL just progressively getting better as the season goes on. Also, their defensive front is vicious and their weak points are on the back end. I’m optimistic about the Rams this week.
Trey McBride
McBride is a beast. Off the cuff, the Seahawks have allowed the 11th most receptions per game (5.2) to opposing TEs this year. One of the reasons that number is high is due to McBride himself. Just two weeks ago in Week 12 he caught 12 balls on 14 targets for 133 yards. We could stop there but I’ll bore you with how much of a beast McBride has evolved into this year. He has no coveted Kelce like numbers, seeing a 27% TPRR, catching 83% of those targets. He has 31.7% of his teams yards, a 2.42 YPRR and a 8.88 YPT. He has a WR level 4.84 YAC/Rec, which is absolutely absurd and it has resulted in a 32% 1st read target rate.
Deebo Samuel
Among the plethora of poor Chicago Bears run defensive statistics below, I’m betting on Kyle Shanahan to work Deebo Samuel into the backfield more as a legit RB. I’ll take my chances that he puts Jauan Jennings outside with Pearsall in the slot and works the living shit out of Deebo Samuel, knowing this is his last stretch of having him.
Notes
CLE +6.5 @ PIT – o43.5
Who knows what Jameis we’ll get so I’ll just take the points. Steelers win.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CLE
– 7.99 YPA (2nd most)
– 65.4 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– +0.61 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (6th most)
– 165 YPG to WRs (6th most)
– 9.61 YPT to WRs (most)
– 49 Explosive Runs (T3rd most)
– 4.55 YPC to RBs (10th most)
– +0.72 RYOE/Att (T3rd most)
PIT
– 237.08 Pass YPG (10th most)
– 137.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (6th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass <10 air yards (T10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Elijah Moore (+265), Pat Freiermuth (+290), Mike Williams (+330), PIT DST (+425), Justin Fields (+475)
NO @ NYG +5 – o41
UPSET ALERT! Giants win on the legs of Tracy.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
NO
– 5.7% Sack Rate (8th lowest)
– 30% QB Pressure Rate (4th lowest)
– 263.58 Pass YPG (5th most)
– 7.64 YPA (5th most)
– 50.9 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (5th most)
– 140.5 YPG on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– 176.7 YPG to WRs (5th most)
– 8.38 YPT to WRs (6th most)
– 112 Rush YPG to RBs (7th most)
– 4.61 YPC to RBs (8th most)
– +0.07 EPA/Rush (2nd most)
– 2.18 YBCo/Att (most)
– +0.58 RYOE/Att (T9th most)
NYG
– 7.5 YPA (10th most)
– 47.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)
– +1.63 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– 8.28 YPT to WRs (8th most)
– 118.1 Rush YPG to RBs (2nd most)
– +0.04 EPA/Rush (4th most)
– 52 Explosive Runs (2nd most)
– 1.95 YBCo/Att (6th most)
– 1.36 RYOE/Att (most)
– 3.18 YACo/Att (T8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Darius Slayton (+380), Greg Dulcich (+950)
NYJ @ MIA -6 – u44.5
The Dolphins are going to blitz the piss out of Rodgers, goodluck.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
NYJ
– 52.9 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– +0.45 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)
– +0.72 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (most)
– -0.01 EPA/Rush (T9th most)
– NYJ 3.19 YACo/Att (T6th most)
MIA
– 5% Sack Rate (T4th lowest)
– +0.54 EPA/Pass 20+ air yards (9th most)
– 8.17 YPT to TEs (9th most)
– +0.66 RYOE/Att (7th most)
– 3.87 YACo/Att (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Raheem Mostert (+310), Isaiah Davis (+425)
JAX @ TEN -3.5 – o40
POINTS! I expect both teams to score. The Titans are down quite a bit of players on defense so the only mishap could be the Jags establishing a solid ground game and draining clock in the process. Otherwise, I think from the Titans we see a crisp and consistent offense with Levis taking ample shots. Ridley revenge game!
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
JAX
– +0.22 EPA/Pass (most)
– 284.17 Pass YPG (most)
– 8.36 YPA (most)
– 4.9% Sack Rate (3rd lowest)
– 28.5% QB Pressure Rate (3rd most)
– 70.6 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– +1.02 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– 76.6 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (10th most)
– 139 YPG on passes <10 air yards (5th most)
– +0.17 EPA/Pass <10 air yards (2nd most)
– +0.17 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (2nd most)
– 181.4 YPG to WRs (3rd most)
– 9.3 YPT to WRs (2nd most)
– 58.42 YPG to TEs (10th most)
– 103.6 Rush YPG to RBs (10th most)
– +0.01 EPA/Rush (T6th most)
– 46 Explosive Runs (T9th most)
– 1.71 YBCo/Att (10th most)
TEN
– None
Longshot TD Scorers: Calvin Ridley (+190), Tank Bigsby (+250), Parker Washington (+270), Will Levis (+450)
ATL +6 @ MIN – u45.5
I think everyone is excited for the Kirko revenge game but I think it falls flat. Vikings will blitz the piss out of him and he can’t move in the pocket. I’d love to play JJ here but I’m concerned this is a methodic, clock draining game and he doesn’t get the volume to pop off.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
ATL
– +0.04 EPA/Pass (6th most)
– 3.4% Sack Rate (lowest)
– 27.3% QB Pressure Rate (2nd lowest)
– 77.4 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (8th most)
– +0.56 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (5th most)
MIN
– 264.67 Pass YPG (4th most)
– 46.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)
– 86.6 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (2nd most)
– 132.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (10th most)
– 182.6 YPG to WRs (2nd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Cam Akers (+350), Sam Darnold (+370)
CAR @ PHI -13.5 – o46
I think this one is all Eagles. Bryce Young is playing great against phenomenal defensive minds these last couple of weeks but this one is different. This one is actually a great defense and Vic Fangio is going to put Bryce Young’s patience to the test. I’m optimistic he plays well enough to get to double digits which is why I like the over.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CAR
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (T3rd most)
– 5% Sack Rate (T4th lowest)
– 26.2% QB Pressure Rate (lowest)
– 7.51 YPA (9th most)
– 83 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (4th most)
– +0/47 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (10th most)
– 63 YPG to TEs (7th most)
– 9.09 YPT to TEs (most)
– +0.06 EPA/Rush (3rd most)
– 137.7 YPG to RBs (most)
– 4.89 YPC to RBs (5th most)
– 49 Explosive Runs (T3rd most)
– 1.96 YBCo/Att (5th most)
PHI
– 30.3% QB Pressure Rate (7th lowest)
Longshot TD Scorers: Adam Thielen (+270), Grant Calcaterra (+280), Kenneth Gainwell (+400), JT Sanders (+450)
LV @ TB -6.5 – o46.5
The Bucs at home are going to hum but I think the Raiders score enough to get to the over. ALTing the spread with the Bucs here is 100% in play.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LV
– +0.08 EPA/Pass (2nd most)
– 5.5% Sack Rate (7th lowest)
– 30.2% QB Pressure Rate (5th lowest)
– +0.53 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (7th most)
– +0.11 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– 66.92 YPG to TEs (2nd most)
– 8.42 YPT to TEs (7th most)
– +0.68 RYOE/Att (6th most)
TB
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (T3rd most)
– 275.67 Pass YPG (3rd most)
– 79.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (7th most)
– +0.52 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (8th most)
– 164.2 YPG on passes <10 air yards (most)
– +0.06 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T8th most)
– 162.3 YPG to WRs (7th most)
– 66.67 YPG to TEs (3rd most)
– 8.28 YPT to TEs (8th most)
– 2.01 YBCo/Att (4th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Sean Tucker (+330)
SEA +2.5 @ ARI – u44.5
I don’t have a great read on this game. Flip a coin. The winner of this game controls their fate to the division title.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
SEA
– 142.2 YPG <10 on passes air yards (2nd most)
– 8.85 YPT to TEs (3rd most)
– 109.8 Rush YPG to RBs (9th most)
– 4.86 YPC to RBs (6th most)
– +0.71 RYOE/Att (5th most)
– 3.61 YACo/Att (2nd most)
ARI
– 31.3% QB Pressure Rate (9th lowest)
– +0.50 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)
– 140.1 YPG on passes <10 air yards (4th most)
– +0.18 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (most)
– 153.7 YPG to WRs (10th most)
– 8.31 YPT to WRs (7th most)
– +0.00 EPA/Rush (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Kyler Murray (+260), AJ Barner (+550)
CHI @ SF -3.5 – u44
I want to take the Bears but this is a tough matchup. I’m worried Thomas Brown is spread too thin and it hurts Caleb Williams. SF is still a much better coaching staff.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CHI
– 7.57 YPA (7th most)
– +0.59 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– 82.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (5th most)
– 8.97 YPT to WRs (4th most)
– 116.4 Rush YPG to RBs (T4th most)
– 47 Explosive Runs (T7th most)
– +0.72 RYOE/Att (T3rd)
– 1.86 YBCo/Att (7th most)
SF
– +0.01 EPA/Rush (T6th most)
– +0.58 RYOE/Att (T9th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Travis Homer (+270), Ricky Pearsall (+340), Israel Abanikanda (+380), Kyle Juszczyck (+700)
BUF @ LAR +3.5 – u49.5
The Bills very well could win this one but I think the Rams take it at home.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
BUF
– +0.07 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T5th Most)
– 4.76 YPC to RBs (3rd most)
– 46 Explosive Runs (T9th most)
– 1.76 YBCo/Att (9th most)
LAR
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T9th most)
– 7.89 YPA (4th most)
– 47.5 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– +1.12 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T10th)
– 9.17 YPT to WRs (3rd most)
– 60.08 YPG to TEs (T8th most)
– 116.4 Rush YPG to RBs (T4th most)
– 5.04 YPC to RBs (2nd most)
– -0.01 EPA/Rush (T9th most)
– 3.25 YACo/Att (5th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Demarcus Robinson (+320)
LAC +3.5 @ KC – u43
KC has been hanging on by a thread. They’re way overdue for a let down loss and the Chargers could be the one to give that to them.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LAC
– +0.79 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– 3.31 YACo/Att (T3rd most)
– 4.6 YPC to RBs (9th most)
KC
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T9th most)
– 5.3% QB Sack Rate (6th most)
– 31.5% QB Pressure Rate (10th most)
– 51.8 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– +0.55 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)
– +0.07 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T5th most)
– 78.5 YPG to TEs (most)
– 8.69 YPT to TEs (4th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Xavier Worthy (+275), Will Dissly (+340), Noah Gray (+350)
