Week 15 TNF Slate Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.

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Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: +121.69 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets

– Brock Purdy o250.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM

– Deebo Samuel 45+ Receiving Yards (-135): 3u – ESPNBet

– Cooper Kupp o62.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – Fanduel

Unofficial Bets

– Jauan Jennings o70.5 Receiving Yards: Another play I wanted to hit so bad but I ended up on Purdy in case it is Kittle or Deebo who eat today. I like Deebo for the reasons below (squeaky wheel) and these guys can house any play. The main benefactor in all of it? Purdy.

Breakdown

Brock Purdy

The YPA merchant himself gets to face off against a defense bleeding yards per attempt since Week 8. Over their last six games they have allowed opposing QBs to average 7.86 YPA which ranks 7th worst in the NFL over that span. This mark would be higher if they didn’t get the pleasure of facing off against Derek Carr in Week 13. Starting from that Week 8 mark, Darnold threw for 240 on 25 attempts, Week 9 Geno Smith threw for 363 on 34 attempts, Week 10 Tua threw for 207 on 28 attempts, Week 11 Maye threw for 282 on 40 attempts, Week 12 Hurts threw for 179 on 22 attempts, Week 13 Carr sinks the ship throwing for only 184 on 37 attempts and finally last week, Josh Allen threw for 342 yards on 37 attempts. On top of this, the Rams defense has found an identity with their young group, becoming stout against the run at the expense of a pass defense with the hopes of getting home to the QB before the opposing offense can exploit their poor defensive backfield. Since that Week 8 mark they have allowed a +0.08 EPA/Pass while only allowing -0.07 EPA/Rush. They are allowing a 17.91% explosive pass rate (5th highest) compared to only a 7.34% explosive rush play (4th lowest). On top of that, the Rams unfortunately may be starting newly acquired CB, Emmanuel Forbes this week due to a banged up CB room. You mix in Purdy having a plus coverage matchup as a foundation, and I think he could leave with a monster game. If this game is face-paced from the get go and the Niners come out slinging it because the health of Guerendo is suspicious even if he is healthy, I’ll be eying a live line on top of this base pre-game line.

Deebo Samuel

Squeaky wheel? Honestly, that is enough to get Deebo in your bet log but on top of that, the Rams have been gashed by opposing WRs this year. They are allowing the 2nd most YPT (9.12) to them and overall have allowed the 9th highest YPA (7.39) to opposing passing games. On top of every stat below pushing that the Rams have a bad pass D, Deebo is demanding the ball from Purdy and Shanahan and Purdy seems to agree. The only thing I have concerns with here is that Deebo is actually cooked and sucks now but I’ll bet that he doesn’t.

Cooper Kupp

I need a piece of Kupp tonight. His Week 14 usage is what I fully expect we get going forward. He was used more downfield, showing a 13.8 ADOT with a 44% TPRR. He saw 39.3% of the air yards from the Rams and it seems that the reason for this usage stems from him getting healthier. This is a tougher matchup for Kupp but I don’t think the gap between Kupp and Puka is as drastic as everyone is thinking because of the “what have you done for me lately” thinking.

Notes

LAR +3 @ SF – u49

I hope this game becomes a fast paced shootout but we will need explosive plays and an aggressive gameplan from both head coaches from the get go. This game is a coin flip so I’ll take the point but this is one of the more 50/50 games I can remember.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:

LAR

– LAR +0.06 EPA/Pass (4th most)

– LAR 46.5 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)

– LAR +0.92 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (T2nd most)

– LAR +0.08 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T4th most)

– LAR 7.39 YPA (9th most)

– LAR 243 Pass YPG (9th most)

– LAR 9.12 YPT to WRs (2nd most)

– +0.00 EPA/Rush (T8th most)

– 109 Rush YPG (8th most)

– 4.59 YPC (7th most)

– +0.61 RYOE/Att (8th most)

– 3.29 YACo/Att (4th most)

SF

– +0.00 EPA/Rush (T8th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Demarcus Robinson (+360), Brock Purdy (+380)