Divisional Round Betting Breakdown

ONE OF THE BEST WEEKENDS OF FOOTBALL IS HERE! We have Houston traveling to KC to take on the Chiefs for the 2nd time in the last month. We have a potential firework display in Detroit on Saturday Night. Sunday we loop into a hard nose battle between the Rams and Eagles and it’s all capped off with the top two MVP candidates facing off in Buffalo. If you missed it, just know I LOVE these matchups. We have some very exploitable spots and with this being so late in the season and us up 142.78u entering this weekend, I’m going super aggressive. I’m not holding back. I’ll be doing some unique bets, a lot of ladders, and some parlays. GEAR THE FUCK UP AND LETS GO!

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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +142.78 Betting Results (2024)
Stats since Week 10: Divisional Round Stats

Official Bets
Saturday
4:30pm: HOU @ KC
– Xavier Worthy 5+ Receptions (-155): 5u – Draftkings
– Xavier Worthy 7+ Receptions (+245): 1u – Draftkings
– Xavier Worthy 8+ Receptions (+475): 1u – Draftkings
– Xavier Worthy 9+ Receptions (+900): 1u – Draftkings
– Travis Kelce o50.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Fanatics
– John Metchie o3.5 Receptions (+112): 3u – Fanduel
– John Metchie 4+ Receptions (+100): 2u – Draftkings
– John Metchie 6+ Receptions (+450): 1u – Draftkings
– John Metchie 7+ Receptions (+950): 2u – Draftkings
– CJ Stroud o14.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– CJ Stroud 25+ Rushing Yards (+250): 1u – Fanduel
– CJ Stroud 40+ Rushing Yards (+1000): 2u – Fanduel 

8:00pm: WAS @ DET
– Jahmyr Gibbs o80.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – Fanatics
– David Montgomery o36.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Terry McLaurin o68.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 10u – Draftkings
– Terry McLaurin 120+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u – Draftkings
– Terry McLaurin 130+ Receiving Yards (+750): 2u – Draftkings
– Terry McLaurin 140+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – Draftkings
– Olamide Zaccheaus o31.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Olamide Zaccheaus 80+ Receiving Yards (+850): 1u – Draftkings
– Olamide Zaccheaus 90+ Receiving Yards (+1200): 1u – Draftkings
– Olamide Zaccheaus 100+ Receiving Yards (+1600): 1u – Fanduel
– Austin Ekeler o22.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Austin Ekeler 60+ Receiving Yards (+700): 1u – Draftkings
– Austin Ekeler 70+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 2u – Draftkings 

Parlays
– KC ML, WAS +14.5, WAS/DET o46.5 Parlay (+122): 5u – Fanduel
– KC ML, CJ Stroud 40+ Rushing Yards, Terry McLaurin 100+ Receiving Yards (+4342): 1u – Fanduel

Sunday
3:00pm: LAR @ PHI
– TBD

6:30pm: BAL @ BUF
– Derrick Henry o94.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM

Unofficial Bets
– Joe Mixon u55.5 Rushing Yards: Mixon sucks and so does this interior of the HOU OL. Unless he breaks a 30+ yard run he won’t sniff 50 yards.
– Joe Mixon o17.5 Receiving Yards: Demeco Ryans mentioned using Mixon more in the passing game if they can’t get him going on the ground. Something to watch. I like his receptions as well but not the price. 
– Nico Collins u83.5 Receiving Yards: The way KC will defend Nico has me concerned by doing their best to double and take away the in breakers. Nico can break a 50+ yard TD at any moment though so I’ll just stay away and stick with Metchie.
– Dalton Schultz o39.5 Receiving Yards: Schultz just hasn’t been good and has been hard to trust. Great matchup. 
– Patrick Mahomes o24.5 Rushing Yards: It is the playoffs, you can play any QB’s rushing yards but I’ll pass here, I think the line is right.
– Kareem Hunt u32.5 Rushing Yards: Pacheco is 100% and the HOU run D is very good. Chiefs should have moments they run the clock out and the Chiefs WILL go with the hot hand so there is a slim chance Hunt buries Pacheco here and gets those carries but I doubt it. Also, the Chiefs never stop passing it. They use the pass to run out a clock with a lot of high percentage passes and still move the ball at will regardless.
– Isiah Pacheco o6.5 Receiving Yards: They’ll get Pacheco one or two and in a spot to get YAC. 
– Noah Gray o10.5 Receiving Yards: I’ll be personally playing this one but I’m officially sticking with Kelce and Worthy. I think Reid has a play or two up his sleeve with a 12P look but with a fully healthy WR room and everyone rested, no reason to push it so Gray may end up without a target in this one.
– Jayden Daniels o237.5 Passing Yards: We have the three main pass catchers, only missing Ertz and Dyami Brown so I’ll stick with those and pass on his overall passing yards. 
– Jayden Daniels o55.5 Rushing Yards: He’ll likely hit his rushing yards too but I’m doing my best to keep the net tight. I’m eying this one live depending how fast the Lions score and how the Commanders’ run game looks early. I expect a lot of designed runs for Jayden and a lot of spies from DET when he is passing (TB used 2). 
– Jared Goff o272.5 Passing Yards: Jared Goff smashes man cover, which the Commanders run at the 6th highest rate (57.6%) in the NFL. Sticking with the backs though.
– Jared Goff o.5 Rushing Yards: Why not? Playoffs, QBs run more. Risk a 4 yard run and then losing 4 on kneels so I’ll pass.
– Jameson Williams o1.5 Rushing Yards: I’m sure Ben Johnson has something up his sleeve.
– Tim Patrick o16.5 Receiving Yards: As I said above, Goff smashes man coverage. All the Lions WRs are in play, there just isn’t a way to differentiate who will ball. 
– Jameson Williams o55.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Patrick
– Amon-Ra St. Brown o76.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Jameson and Patrick. I think two of the three WRs do get home so if you wanted to shotgun spray the three, it isn’t a bad strategy with the hopes all three get home but I would rather just play Goff in that instance incase Gibbs houses one on a dump off pass. I don’t think this is a good matchup for LaPorta. 
– Jalen Hurts u201.5 Passing Yards: Hurts has over 180 yards just once in his last five games. Both teams will run the ball in what is projected to be a snow game. I’ll be turning this into a live play at some point on Saturday. If we smash Worthy, Metchie and Stroud this will be a 5u play. 
– Jalen Hurts o39.5 Rushing Yards: Hurts can’t pass and the Rams DL will get home so I expect quite a few scrambles on top of some designed runs for Hurts. 
– Jalen Hurts o9.5 Rush Attempts: Same as above but throw in some tush pushes and kneels.
– AJ Brown o69.5 Receiving Yards: Guy is a beast in a plus matchup but I don’t trust Hurts.  
– Matthew Stafford o.5 Rushing Yards: Same as Goff, fuck it. Playoffs, QBs run. Stafford is less likely to lose yards via kneels so I do like Stafford’s line more than Goffs. 
– Kyren Williams o73.5 Rushing Yards: This goes along with me thinking the Rams will win. The line is only so low because it is built in that he will lose the 4Q, which I don’t think he does. I’d rather just bet LA ML though if I’m going that angle. 
– Puka Nacua o2.5 Rushing Yards: Could be the Rams last game of the season, doubt they hold back now. He topped 7+ in Week 13-15 and last week against the Vikings.
– Puka Nacua o86.5 Receiving Yards: I’d oddly enough prefer to wait and hit this one live. I want a feel for the game before I jump in. I’m fine losing out if he eats on the first drive. 
– Lamar Jackson o55.5 Rushing Yards: Playoffs, he’ll run more and is virtually unstoppable.
– Isaiah Likely o36.5 Receiving Yards: I like him a lot more when his line was in the mid 20s. The Bills are average against the TE but I’m not sure that matters much. Likely probably gets home but this lines up to be a King Henry and Mark Andrews game. 
– Josh Allen o46.5 Rushing Yards: Same as Lamar but I like Allen’s line more. I don’t think the Bills will be consistently successful with James Cook and will have more designed runs for Allen than we are used to seeing. This will be pushed official by Sunday morning. 
– Mack Hollins o17.5 Receiving Yards: This one could be live but I also like Keon Coleman. The best way to attack the Ravens is on the perimeter against Stephens, specifically on deep balls and even more specifically on jump balls. I think Mack breaks looks in this one for a big chunk. 

Breakdown
Saturday
Xavier Worthy
Regurgitated the same volume play we smashed on Christmas here. Looping back to how Andy Reid and Matt Nagy have gloated about Worthy and the steps he has made as a rookie, he is primed for another 10+ target game. Over his last three he has reception counts of 6, 7, and 8, increasing each week from Week 15 to Week 17. Over those three games he has an 81.7% route participation with a 30% TPRR and a team leading 31.3% 1st read rate. He has a total of 31 targets of this span and the Chiefs used Worthy in this exact role just back in Week 16 when he went 7/65/1 against the Texans. I expect more of the same and if the Texans put up a fight, we can see Worthy get up to 10+ receptions here.

Travis Kelce 
I fully expect playoff Kelce to come alive here and it is a ripe matchup. In Kelce’s 4 playoff games last year he hit 71+ receiving yards in each of the four and caught at least five balls in each. Since Week 10 the Texans are allowing 66 YPG and 7.76 YPT to opposing TEs. I also like Kelce to have 10+ receiving yards in the 1st quarter as they get Kelce involved early.

John Metchie
Last week against the Chargers John Metchie emerged as the WR2 behind Nico Collins. He saw 8 targets, catching four of them for 28 yards. He had a 28% TPRR and a low aDOT of 6.9 with a very generous 22.7% 1st read rate. It was clear from the get go that the Texans identified their offense as needing a quick hitter underneath to help take pressure off of Stroud and the OL and Metchie is who they settled on for that role. Since then Demeco Ryans has elaborated and confirmed that was their gameplan. This week he spoke about an efficient offense and a big part of that is quick passing. Getting the ball out, getting completions and allowing their playmakers to make plays. He said it helped them last week and will also be a key this upcoming week. This is doubled down upon given how weak the interior is for the Houston Texans and how well Chiefs Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, can put his players in position to succeed. I expect more of the same usage for Metchie in this one and he very well could see north of 10+ targets here. 

CJ Stroud
Last week the Texans offense once again came out and were struggling out of the gate. At least this time, they were throwing at a higher clip rather than running it into a brick wall with Joe Mixon. Due to this, Stroud had the ball in his hands more often. With that, the biggest issue on the Texans offensive line is right up the gut. Due to that, it flushes CJ Stroud out of the pocket and forces him to extend the play with his legs. When Stroud does this, it is clear that is when he is at his best. He gets more into the rhythm of the game and gets a better feel with more confidence as the chains move more frequently. Stroud ended up with 42 rushing yards on six total attempts which was his second highest marks for both on the season behind the Texans Week 9 loss to the Jets when he ran it 8 times for 59 yards. The Chiefs are projected to beat the Texans by 8.5 points here which opened the door for multiple hurry up offense drives and if there is pressure coming up the middle like expected, it’ll push Stroud on the run just like last week. Couple that with a playoff bump for rushing QBs and we have ourselves the makings of a ladder. 

Jahmyr Gibbs / David Montgomery
Gibbs has been on an absolute tear lately with David Montgomery out. In the three games without Montgomery Gibbs saw 18+ carries in all of them and had 109+ rushing yards in each with an absurd six TDs total including 10 runs of 10+ yards and hitting 15+ MPH 11 times and even 20+ three times. The man is in the zone and gets a great matchup this weekend against the Washington Commanders with the Lions entering kickoff close to double digit favorites. You can really pick apart the Commanders defense at any point in this season as they have not improved that area of the field, instead focusing on limiting opposing air attacks. On the season they allowed the 4th most RYPG to opposing RBs (113.82) and the 3rd highest YPC (4.9). Over the last four games they allowed 117 RYPG to opposing backs and a 4.59 YPC. Starting in Week 16, Saquon Barkley went 29/150/2, Bijan Robinson went 17/90/2 (Tyler Allgeier added 3/19 in W17), Rico Dowdle went 22/72/1 with Deuce Vaughn adding 6/37 and last week in the playoff game Bucky Irving went 17/77 while ripping off a few chunks. The Lions run game is a different beast nad this split backfield is going to see 30+ carries, regardless of how it is divided up. Gibbs has the ability to house every single touch he sees. 

To loop to David Montgomery, he opened with an absurdly low line of 36.5 as the books were hesitant on his workload. If you’ve been paying attention, you would know that Montgomery has been fully practicing for 2 weeks now and is a completely full go, confirmed with being taken off of the injury report on Thursday. The line has now jumped close to 50 rushing yards, giving us an extreme value with his Rush Attempts line sitting around 10-11 on most books at the moment. I think Gibbs starts but we will see a ton of Montgomery with both of them, like I said, splitting around 30 carries in this one. 

Terry McLaurin
McLaurin has been on a tear the last two months of the season. Since Week 10 (9 games) he is averaging 62.3 YPG with a 21% TPRR and an 11.9 ADOT, accounting for 33.9% of the Commanders air yards with a 25.3% 1st read rate. On the surface those numbers are fine but they are bogged down dramatically by two specific games. In Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles he was held to only 1 reception for 10 yards. In Week 17, he was held to 1 reception for five yards. If I cherry pick a little bit and remove those two games specifically, his numbers jump considerably. He jumps up to a 36.2% air yard share even though his ADOT stays at 11.8 and he jumps to 80.5 YPG even though his TPRR stays at 24%. He is booted to a 30% 1st read rate and up to 2.44 YPRR. He has 60 or more receiving yards in all seven of those games with five of them being 73 or more and topping 100 twice. The Lions come in as almost double digit favorites with this game total hitting that ceiling of 55.5 which is abnormal for a playoff game. The weaknesses of the Commanders defense are going to cost them against the Lions offense as the Commanders can’t stop the run and that happens to be what the Lions are best at. With that, I fully expect the Lions to put up points and force the Commanders to pass against a piss poor Lions pass defense that is extremely banged up. 

Olamide Zaccheaus 
Zaccheaus has emerged as the WR2 of this team behind F1. I’ll start off by saying last week he was a dud, only catching three balls for 19 yards but he had a drop in there that would have been significant yards. In the three games prior to that he had 51 or more receiving yards in all three with 22 total targets (24% TPRR), averaging 68.7 YPG. He also walked away with a 25.7% 1st read rate over those three games and had a 69.4% route participation. 

Austin Ekeler
This comes down to the Lions being susceptible against opposing RBs through the air and have been all season. Since Week 4 they have allowed the highest YPT (8.71) to opposing backs and the 2nd most receiving yards (575) with 13 backs total hitting 23 or more receiving yards and at least one back hitting it in 11 of the games over that 14 game span.  

Sunday
Derrick Henry
The Ravens have been riding Derrick Henry the last month as they entered these colder months of the season. He has at least 20+ carries in each of the 4 Ravens games with 138 or more rushing yards in all four averaging 158.25 YPG and 24.25 carries per game with 6.53 YPC. He has 18 10+ yard runs over this span with all 18 of them having Henry hit 15+ MPH on each carry. The Bills have a physically smaller but faster defense than usual around the NFL and present a physical mismatch in favor of the Ravens run game. Just like last week with Zay Flowers missing we will see more 12-Personnel and heavy formations for the Ravens having Patrick Ricard in the backfield as well. The Ravens are dead set to staying with the run here and will force feed Henry a minimum of 15+ carries in a neutral script and if the Ravens are killing clock late, he is going to fly by 100+ rushing yards. 

Notes
HOU +8.5 @ KC – o41.5
KC is going to win this game but 8.5 is a lot to lay so I’d prefer to take the points with KC winning by 7 and Stroud getting the back door cover. 

TD Scorers: Travis Kelce (+145), Dalton Schultz (+330), Patrick Mahomes (+390), Noah Gray (+450)

WAS +9.5 @ DET – o55.5

Games with totals this high get weird. I think Washington covers and they have a slim chance of pulling off a massive upset although it would take some turnovers and a near perfect offensive performance to pull it off. 

TD Scorers: Literally anyone could score. There will be 10+ TDs between the two teams. 

LAR +6.5 @ PHI – u43.5
The Rams defensive front is good enough to neutralize the Philly OL. I think they keep Barkley in check and if they do that, they’ll be able to force Hurts to pass and if Hurts has to win it with his arm, he won’t. Breaking it down to that I’d much rather Stafford over Hurts in that win or go home scenario. However, AJ Brown is good enough to where it might not matter. 

TD Scorers: Kyren Williams (-115), Jalen Hurts (-115), AJ Brown (+150), Puka Nacua (+150), Tyler Higbee (+475), Demarcus Robinson (+500)

BAL -1.5 @ BUF – u51.5 
I had Ravens over the Lions in the Super Bowl this year and I’m not coming off of it. The Ravens are going to run a lot of heavy formations and jam it down the Bills throats. On offense, the Bills run to set up the pass but they haven’t shown they can pass to set up the run because they simply haven’t been put in that situation a ton against a defense that can stop both. Josh Allen is going to have to play hero ball to win. He absolutely can do that but we’ve seen how things usually go for Allen when he is forced to play hero ball.  

TD Scorers: Derrick Henry (-210), Josh Allen (+110), Mark Andrews (+155), Isaiah Likely (+260), Ty Johnson (+550), Dawson Knox (+550), Tylan Wallace (+550), Nelson Agholor (+650), Charlie Kolar (+1100)