Championship Round Betting Breakdown
We only have three games left in the season and what a season it has been. Of the five months so far, we have been profitable in four of the five. The one month we were down was in December but we have cleared that month completely off with a +83.28 January so far. Overall we enter the Championship Round up 189.57u on the year which is on the back of a +179.89u 2023 season. I set out to not only top the 2023 season but to hit 200u and that is my goal these next three weeks. Let’s take it home!
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +189.57 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
3:00pm:
– Saquon Barkley o125.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Saquon Barkley Longest Rush o20.5 (-120): 5u – Fanatics
– Kenneth Gainwell o13.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-110): 5u – MGM
– DeVonta Smith o46.5 Receiving Yards (-125): 3u – MGM
– DeVonta Smith 100+ Receiving Yards (+750): .5u – Fanduel
– DeVonta Smith 110+ Receiving Yards (+1060): .5u – Fanduel
– DeVonta Smith 120+ Receiving Yards (+1420): 1u – Fanduel
– Austin Ekeler o21.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 10u – MGM
– Austin Ekeler 50+ Receiving Yards (+425): 2u – Draftkings
– Austin Ekeler 60+ Receiving Yards (+750): 2u – Draftkings
– Austin Ekeler 70+ Receiving Yards (+1300): 3u – Draftkings
6:30pm:
– Travis Kelce o68.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Xavier Worthy o4.5 Receptions (-140): 3u – Fanduel
– Josh Allen o45.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Fanatics
– Dawson Knox o14.5 Receiving Yards (-110: 5u – MGM
– Dawson Knox 50+ Receiving Yards (+800): 1u – Fanduel
– Dawson Knox 60+ Receiving Yards (+1400): 2u – Draftkings
Parlay
– Austin Ekeler 40+ Receiving Yards, Dawson Knox 60+ Receiving Yards (+4790): 1u – Draftkings
Unofficial Bets
– Jayden Daniels u223.5 Passing Yards: I think the Eagles keep this Commanders offense in check but I don’t want to bet against Jayden Daniels right now.
– Olamide Zaccheaus o20.5 Receiving Yards: This is a good matchup for OZ with the Eagles projecting to play more zone as opposed to man coverage.
– Zach Ertz o3.5 Receptions: I love Ertz here but I don’t want to play the juice. I’ll be eying him live and if he starts slow with the Eagles jumping out to a quick double digit lead, I’ll be laddering Ertz receptions live at a cheaper line so keep an eye on that.
– Jalen Hurts o187.5 Passing Yards: I think Hurts has some success here but I don’t know if he’ll have all four quarters at his disposal to get to 188 passing yards and with how Hurts has performed this 2nd half of the season, I’d rather just root for Smith and Barkley.
– James Cook o56.5 Rushing Yards: The Bills should stick to the run here and have some success.
– Khalil Shakir o56.5 Receiving Yards: They have targeted Shakir early and often but I do think the Bills want to slow this game down and try to control it so I’m cautious hitting Shakir right from the jump, more of a live target if the Bills go down early and have to abandon the run. If that happens, I’d like to ride the Knox play and add Shakir to it live.
– Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush o12.5: I just couldn’t get there. He was too inconsistent with his rushing numbers recently and longest rush but I have a hunch he hits.
– Isaiah Pacheco o30.5 Rushing Yards: Pacheco is reportedly 100% and I’ll give a mulligan last week against a tough opponent. The Bills run defense is much softer and he is someone who will run through a MFers face. I’ll watch from the sidelines though as the split between him and Hunt is way too unpredictable.
Breakdown
Saquon Barkley
This line is insane, and it is even more insane that it is too low. Saquon Barkley has been on an absolute TEAR lately, just ripping through every defense he faces. Over his last nine games he has run for at least 107 or more yards in eight of the nine games and has topped 119 or more in seven of the nine. Overall in this span he is averaging 148.7 Rush YPG with a 5.95 YPC with 18 (8%) runs of 15 or more yards which is just bonkers. Back in Week 11 Barkley accumulated 146 rushing yards on 26 carries against the Commanders and just a short 5 weeks ago he went for 150 rushing yards on 29 carries and I expect more of the same in this one with Jalen Hurts banged up.
Kenneth Gainwell
He can knock this out in one play regardless if it is a pass or rush but I like this specifically because of how immobile Hurts projects to be with his banged up knee. We should see 1-2 designed passes in the direction of Gainwell along with 3+ runs and if he gets 5+ touches he is going to blow by this line in an adventitious matchup.
DeVonta Smith
The Commanders defense is going to focus on AJB and Barkley. With Goedert banged up a little, a banged up Hurts is going to have to focus on passing and the path of least resistance will be Smith.
Austin Ekeler
I expect the Eagles to play more like they did in Week 11 against Jayden Daniels rather than how they did in Week 16. In Week 16 they blitzed the hell out of him and they couldn’t get him which has been a recurring trend. Both the Bucs and Lions blitzed him heavily and played a lot of man coverage, Jayden shredded them. Between me and all of these teams, we were wrong and Jayden has shown veteran poise in the face of that pressure, delivering time and time again. Back in Week 11 the Eagles played a lot more of their base defense with a more zone heavy look and rushed with just their front line instead of blitzing Jayden a ton. In that game the Eagles won and held Jayden Daniels to 22/32 passing for only 191 yards with a score and a pick and only 7/18 on the ground. In that game Austin Ekeler was targeted 9 times, catching 8 of them for 89 yards. Flat out, he has climbed this ladder before against this very same defense and with the expectation that the Eagles win, I think he climbs it again.
Travis Kelce
Kelce has 70+ Receiving yards in 14 straight playoff games. That alone is enough to get this play into 5u territory but this is also a solid matchup for Kelce. Last week the Ravens consistently targeted the middle of the field with Andrews going 5/61 and Likely going 4/73/1.
Xavier Worthy
Worthy has seen at least six targets and caught at least five balls in each of his last six games. We’ve been hitting Worthy every week for the last month and nothing is changing now. I’m hesitant to ladder here due to the Chiefs being at full power but we’ll see how the flow of the game goes. I expect the Chiefs to get Worthy involved more in this one but Kelce is going to take away enough volume to prevent Worthy from seeing 9+ receptions in this one so the plan is to stick with just his main line for now and eye it live.
Josh Allen
As I always say, it is the playoffs so QBs run more. On top of that, QBs have been running against this Chiefs defense, including Josh Allen running for 55 yards in Week 11 on 12 rush attempts, breaking a game winner of 23 yards late in that game. Over the last four games we have seen CJ Stroud run for 23 yards on 2 attempts and 42 yards on 6 attempts. Sandwiched between those performances Russell Wilson ran for 55 yards on 6 attempts and Bo Nix ran for 47 yards on 7 attempts. I expect this game to be high scoring which is going to propel Allen to run even more. If the Chiefs play man coverage like I expect, it opens up even more holes.
Dawson Knox
The Chiefs were a prime target for TEs all year long for us and they haven’t gotten better as the season progressed. Since Week 10 they allowed the 9th most YPG (60.89) and 3rd highest YPT (8.56) to opposing TEs. I prefer Knox to Kincaid since Knox will see more snaps with the Bills trying to establish the run and Knox can knock this line out in one play. Also, Knox has seen at least two targets in each of the Bills last five games with three targets in three of the five while seeing an overall 16% TPRR and a 9% 1st read rate, which is solid for a TE that has a 48.4% route participation over this span.
Notes
WAS @ PHI -6 – u47.5
This one is tough because it is hard to bet against Jayden Daniels right now but this matchup isn’t the same as what he has been facing. His last four opponents have been the Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Detroit Lions. All four have been garbage defenses this year and all four were played in near perfect conditions. We can point to Jayden Daniels playing well against the Eagles in Week 16 but the Eagles played a different game plan against Jayden in that contest, something out of the ordinary, blitzing a season high 20 times in that matchup. Back in Week 11 when Jayden played poorly, the Eagles Defensive Coordinator, Vic Fangio, played more conservative and let his defensive line get home, forcing Daniels into longer processes but yet unable to scramble. This worked well, holding Daniels to only 22/32 passing for 191 yards with only 1 score and 1 pick and only 18 rushing yards on 7 attempts. I expect the Eagles defense to play that style of game while on the other side the Eagles will pound the rock against a very poor run defense. Dan Quinn figures to have a plan to stop Saquon Barkley but as I always say, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Goodluck.
Longshot TD Scorers: Saquon Barkley (-225), DeVonta Smith (+190), Zach Ertz (+285), Olamide Zaccheaus (+450), Grant Calcaterra (+1400)
BUF @ KC -1.5 – o48.5
Who fucking knows. The Chiefs should win but it is so hard to consistently beat a team in the playoffs like this. We all know the Chiefs will have a little extra juice on their side but at the same time they have the better QB and better coaching staff with neutral supporting casts at best. I’ll take the combination of Andy Reid, Steven Spagnuolo and Patrick Mahomes at home over Sean McDermott, Joe Brady, and Josh Allen any day of the week. But, in the same breath, I’m not counting out Josh Allen in an “anything can happen” style of game that I expect to have a hot 2nd half. At the end of the day, I’ll take Mahomes at home with his supporting cast any day of the week.
Longshot TD Scorers: Josh Allen (-120), Travis Kelce (+120), James Cook (+125), Patrick Mahomes (+360), Noah Gray (+425), Dawson Knox (+650), Justin Watson (+1000)
