Week 18 Saturday Betting Breakdown

 

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in discord. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 

Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: Betting Results (+139.72)

Saturday

4:30pm

Najee Harris (TBD)

Jaylen Warren (TBD)

UPDATE (1/4/2024 @ 8:58pm) 

Najee Harris o60.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Fanduel
Najee Harris 125+ Rushing Yards (+1300): 1u – PointsBet
Jaylen Warren o45.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 2u – Fanduel
Jaylen Warren 110+ Rushing Yards (+1500): 1u – PointsBet

8pm

Devin Singletary o61.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM

Devin Singletary 95+ Rushing Yards (+280): 2u – PointsBet

Devin Singletary 110+ Rushing Yards (+450): 1u – PointsBet

Devin Singletary 125+ Rushing Yards (+750): 1u – PointsBet

Devin Singletary 140+ Rushing Yards (+1200): 2u – PointsBet

Dalton Schultz o41.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel

**NOTE: These Devin Singletary lines can be found at better odds on Draftkings. I had already posted these current lines from PointsBet so I will keep as is for the official bets but check out Draftkings.

Devin Singletary 90+ Rushing Yards (+285): 2u – Draftkings

Devin Singletary 100+ Rushing Yards (+425): 1u – Draftkings

Devin Singletary 110+ Rushing Yards (+650): 1u – Draftkings

Devin Singletary 120+ Rushing Yards (+950): 2u – Draftkings

ADDED (1/4/24 @ 8:58pm)
Nico Collins o74.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
Nico Collins 110+ Receiving Yards (+310): 1u – Draftkings
Nico Collins 120+ Receiving Yards (+450): 2u – Draftkings
Nico Collins 155+ Receiving Yards (+1500): 2u – PointsBet

Breakdown

4:30pm

Najee Harris / Jaylen Warren

As I write this, neither line is released yet but I don’t want to hold up the article because of them. I’m eying these two backs but it isn’t something I’m definitely playing unless they are profitable lines. I wouldn’t call the Ravens defense a ripe matchup but even fully healthy, their run defense has faltered of late. Four of their last seven games they have allowed at least one back to top 100 rushing yards and the three games they didn’t it was the Chargers (Ekeler), Bengals (Mixon) and Jaguars (Etienne) – three teams who do not have a good running game at the moment. Over that span of seven games, they have allowed the 15th most rushing yards (95) per game and 3rd highest yards per carry (5) in the NFL to opposing RBs. All while the Ravens quietly offer a good matchup for opposing backs, the Steelers have also quietly had a good ground game between Harris and Warren. They are also somewhat predictable which is nice for playing their props. Both of them are going to get snaps but we can expect Harris to take the majority of the ground work while Warren is mixed in and getting the majority of the air work. This has been more or less consistent given game flow throughout the season for this team. On the season, Najee Harris has a 53% snap rate, 54% of the team’s rush attempts (14.31) and only a 6% target share. Jaylen Warren has a 49% snap share with 33% of the team’s rushing attempts (8.63) and a ridiculous 15% target share. With the Steelers entering this game as 4 point favorites and facing most of the game against what is perceived as the Ravens backups in a must win game, I expect them to have the lead. Even in a neutral game script, the Steelers are one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL with both the 4th highest rushing rate (42%) and 4th highest rushing rate over expectation (-5.2%) in the NFL this year.  

8pm

Devin Singletary

Since Week 9 we have seen Devin Singletary completely take over this backfield and see elite usage. Over that span (nine games), Singletary has a 67% snap rate and a 67% rush attempt share. He has also seen work in the air, securing a 51% route participation and a 9% target share. Over those games, he has taken the 9th most (43) snaps, 11th most (15.9) rush attempts, and has had the 9th most rushing yards (72) per game in the NFL. Good thing for Devin Singletary here is that he has a plush matchup against the Indianapolis Colts defense. Since Week 10 they have given up the 3rd most rushing yards (122) and 10th highest yards per carry (4.6) per game to opposing backs while also letting them have the most rush attempts (26) per game. The reasoning for this is due to the fact the Colts offense simply isn’t good enough to bury opposing teams, which allows them to stay in games. On top of that, their rush defense just isn’t good enough to get off of the field. This generates long, sustained drives all while allowing opposing backs rip off chunk plays. Over that seven game span since Week 10, they have allowed eight backs to top 62 rushing yards and at least one opposing back to do so in six of the seven games. I think we have a nice shot at volume mixed with big play potential with Singletary in this one. Not only will Singletary get all of the rushing attempts in a close game, if the Texans are winning late, he will get ample volume to drop the hammer on this defense and close out the game. 

Nico Collins

I was a little hesitant to get into Nico Collins but since Noah Brown was ruled out, it is wheels up for Nico. Over the five games he has played with CJ Stroud at QB, Collins has seen at least seven catches in every game except one and 80 or more in three of the five. The one game where Nico Collins didn’t have a great game was against the Jets (in NY) in Week 14. He only had one catch for 13 yards in that game and CJ Stroud only threw for a total of 91 yards himself. In the other four games, Collins has averaged 10 targets, 7.5 receptions and 110 receiving yards per game with two scores mixed in. Removing that Week 14 game against the Jets, Nico saw at least a 26% target share in all four of those games and reached 30% twice and maxed out at 44% (Week 13). Also, the last time these two teams played back in Week 2, Nico Collins caught seven of his nine targets for 146 yards and a score. I think CJ Stroud has a ton of success against this zone defense that generates very little pressure and will be able to pick the Colts apart. With Noah Brown now out, the targets are going to be centralized to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. I like the chances that Collins rips off multiple chunk plays of 15+ yards and has a strong possibility of taking one to the house. Due to this, I’m going to be throwing a full ladder at Collins. This does NOT affect the way I view Singletary because I think there will be a lot of points scored in this game with it being a very entertaining game. The Texans offense is rolling right now with efficiency and Offensive Coordinator, Bobby Slowik has continued to improve in his rookie season as a Coordinator.

Dalton Schultz

We have both a matchup opportunity here to go with usage from Dalton Schultz. On the season, Schultz has a 16% target share, a 19% target per route run, and a 72% route participation to go with a very respectable 8.22 average depth of target. Correlated to that 8.22 average depth of target, Schultz ranks 7th in the NFL with 45 air yards per game and 4th with an average of 10.8 air yards per target. What I’m getting at is that not only does Dalton Schultz have a usagable target usage, he is being targeted down field with profitable targets. This Saturday his opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, offer a profitable matchup. Their defense has been targeted at the 7th highest rate in the NFL by opposing TEs at 7.7 targets per game going to the TE spot. With that, they have given up the 8th most receptions (5.3) and the 10th most receiving yards (53) to opposing TEs per game. This game carries a very nice 47.5 point total and Schultz is going to have a fully healthy CJ Stroud under center. I expect at least 5 targets for Schultz with the Texans designing multiple targets down field for Schultz to catch the ball in stride for chunk plays. 

 

Unofficial Leans

Nico Collins o70.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – MGM

Michael Pittman o75.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Fanduel

Kylen Granson o21.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Fanduel

 

ADDED:

Najee Harris 80+ Rushing Yards (+210) – PointsBet

Najee Harris 95+ Rushing Yards (+400) – PointsBet

Najee Harris 110+ Rushing Yards (+700) – PointsBet

Jaylen Warren 65+ Rushing Yards (+240) – PointsBet

Jaylen Warren 80+ Rushing Yards (+450) – PointsBet

Jaylen Warren 95+ Rushing Yards (+850) – PointsBet

Outright Winner Predictions

PIT over BAL

HOU over IND