Weekly Recap:

What started on the biggest day we’ve had in history, ended in the worst day we’ve had. The games flipped on Thursday and I got beat. The Minnesota Wild are struggling to score. The Wild’s offense was exposed in two games on the road against Eastern Conference teams. The Wild scored two goals in matchups against the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals who both give up an average of 3+ goals per game. The Wild are missing Matt Boldy, Jared Spurgeon, and Freddy Gaudreau. The Wild averaged less than three goals per game last season, so their lack of offense isn’t all that of a surprise. The surprise comes on the back half of the ice. Last year, the Wild were a top 10 team in goals against per game averaging 2.67 per game. This year the Wild are the worst team in the league defensively giving up over four goals per game. Special teams have been one of the biggest problems for them. The penalty kill is second worst in the league giving up a goal 23% of the time for the second most goals against in the league. The Wild are second worst in the league in shots against as well. Minnesota has been falling behind in games, making it difficult to play with a lead, and have lost four of their last six. We are losing an offensive edge in games that should see this team leading 2-1 games in the third period. The Wild have averaged three or more goals per game, outside of opening night, and the two games we played on Thursday and Friday. Colorado has hurt us as well this week. After hitting them on an underpriced line against the Islanders in a game they scored seven goals winning 7-4 for 5 units, we have lost 10 units on them. The Avs played Pittsburgh and Buffalo, both whom average three goals against per game and came into each night struggling, and under .500. Pit was coming off losing three in a row giving up 14 goals in those three games. Both teams pitched shutouts against them. The Avs were averaging 4.66 goals per game before getting shut out these past two matchups. 

We are down a lot of units from Friday and Saturday’s missed plays. I went back and looked at the major losses we’ve endured since Thursday. We need to stay focused on our goal and remember that we are here for a period of time, not four days. Time is our friend, our anxiety and stress are not. We are not down 80 units on the year, but we took a hit of 80ish units since Thursday. That doesn’t include the 30+ unit day we had on Tuesday, the 30+ units we’re up on the MLB playoffs, or the other 30+ units we’ve been up on the MLB regular season. We need to set goals of getting these units back over a short period of time to get our bankroll back up to as high as it was. We need to keep the wins we were up in mind, to give us the patience to chip away. 

These are the units and teams that I believe have hurt us the most over the past four days and the units we need to take back from them. This is not a total unit count. If a team played each other for a game total, I counted it twice. I also did not count units we won back on these teams in other plays. 

To date in this season, there have been 17 total shutouts, compared to 11 from last season. Scoring is down this year, and we have been marred by multiple shutouts. The reads on those games have been half-right. Pittsburgh, Vancouver, and New York have all contributed more than their half of the expectation in those games. Colorado, St. Louis, Calgary, Minnesota, have not. We are going to chip away at these units by team and matchup until we are back in the positive while targeting the teams we have been successful on and are in favorable matchups this week. 

 

For tonight:

Florida vs. Boston

This is a matchup where we made a lot of money during last year’s playoffs. Six of the seven games in the first-round matchup between these two went over. They face each other tonight for the first time since Florida came back from down 3-1 in the series to knock off the Presidents Trophy-winning Bruins. Both teams are having down years offensively compared to last year, and both teams are missing significant pieces. The Bruins lost Patrice Bergeron to retirement, and Florida is without Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett right now due to injury. Linus Ullmark and Sergei Bobrovsky should both start tonight in net. On the season Bob has given up three or more goals to top teams in the league in scoring. Boston has been worse offensively than Bob’s tests this season. Ullmark has played very well so far giving up one goal in three of his four starts, but two of the three teams he has faced struggle to score two goals a game. If these two teams didn’t meet last playoffs, I would be on the under. This game has a narrative to it and typically the line would open at 6.5. It’s only 6 right now and we have 5.5 being offered at -165. Being a ‘revenge’ game from last playoffs opens this game up more than it would normally. Florida’s offense has slowly been improving as the season progresses, while Boston, in my opinion, is about to start a string of losing games. I’ve mentioned that Boston is a product of their schedule and their offense has struggled against low-end West Coast teams. Five of the six teams Boston has faced give up three or more goals per game, and Boston has scored three or less in six of eight (Anaheim and Chicago played twice). I believe if this game has no intensity from last year’s playoffs, the game ends under 5.5. If these two teams come out fast and physical, the game hits 6 or 7 goals. I would play the final score odds of 3-2 and 3-1 for small up to a unit as a semi hedge. The odds range from +1650 – +3,000 if you plan to play the over in this game.

Carolina vs. Philadelphia

Carolina is a tired team and their performance reflects that. It took Carolina coming from behind and winning in overtime to beat a Seattle Kraken team that has two wins on the season, one of them being a 7-4 win over Carolina. Carolina’s offense continues to score regardless of how many they give up. Freddy Andersen has not played up to expectation this year and Carolina’s first six of nine games flew past the pre-game over. Two shutouts, and a 3-2 overtime win since then, as well as Carter Hart’s 2.11 GAA, has this total at 5.5 -150. Carolina has had the past two days off and their offense is fully healthy. Brett Pesce is out on defense but Carolina has won the past seven meetings against Philly. In six of those seven wins, Carolina has scored three or more goals. Carter Hart started two of those games giving up ten goals total. Philadelphia has impressive wins on paper, but I’m not buying. They’ve beaten Minnesota and Vancouver at home after both teams traveled east after beating Edmonton. Philly also beat Edmonton themselves at home after a West Coast travel day. Their other win? Columbus. Philly has been a product of travel and home ice in my opinion. When Philly takes the ice with legitimate contenders such as Dallas and Vegas, they play well but fall short. They’ve also lost to Ottawa and Anaheim. What we are looking for here is a fresh start to the game by Carolina and a strong finish. I am going to lay the juice here to get Carolina at 3 instead of 3.5. Yes, you can play 3.5, but lower the risk. Carolina at -190 on the ML is in play. My hesitation here is our past four days and bankroll is limited, but I don’t want to pass Carolina up in this spot where they’ve had a lot of success. I will be taking Carolina here and watching this live. If and when Carolina takes the lead, we will want to hedge Philly, and if Carolina does not score early, we will want to watch the team total live and hedge under 2.5 if they look slow to start.

Anaheim vs. Pittsburgh

Pit followed up their shutout over Colorado with a 5-2 loss against Ottawa. Anaheim comes to town tonight following a 7-4 win over Philly Saturday afternoon. Tonight is a night I see the lines as being correct, which is good for us analytics-wise. This game should go over and should hit 6-7 goals. We should see Pittsburgh’s power play often tonight with Anaheim being second in the league with PPO against (power play opportunities). Pittsburgh’s power play has struggled so far this season and they have an opportunity to get right tonight. Pittsburgh is a team I would look at for multi-point props as well as power play props. Pittsburgh’s team total at 3.5 comes at -155, so we will have to pay to get their side of the total. 5.5 comes in at -175 for the game. The books expect scoring tonight with the line opening at 6.5 -110.

Seattle vs. Tampa Bay

This line is too low for Tampa on the ML. Jonas Johansson is coming off back-to-back shutout wins and faces a Seattle offense tonight that has scored more than two goals twice this season. Tampa Bay is nearly perfect on the penalty kill giving up one goal on 19 opportunities and rarely giving power play opportunities (top in the league). Five of Seattle’s twenty goals this season have come on the powerplay. They have fifteen goals outside of that, and one of them is on the penalty kill. Seattle has been to Tampa Bay twice in their short existence and is 0-2. It will take a lot for Seattle to pull this one out. For Seattle to win, Jonas has to have a typical 3-4 goal game by him, with a lack of help in front of him. Tampa Bay’s team total also comes in at three, at home. These lines are very fishy. This should be a game where Tampa Bay is -175 favorites and their team total is 3.5. We are looking at a fall-apart game by Jonas here in a high-scoring game for Seattle to win. Grubauer is 1-2-1 with a 3.85 GAA in his career in Tampa Bay. This should be a smash spot for the over, as well as the Tampa side. The WORST case scenario is, for Tampa to lose, it will be in a 4-3 type game. In all scenarios I see this game going, Tampa Bay is protected by a team total push, and the game going over. We lose if Seattle wins 3-2 or better, or Tampa wins 2-1. Those are your hedges.

Rangers vs. Winnipeg

I am going to keep playing the Rangers as long as we keep having them offered at 2.5 or 3 on the road. Our problem, again, is bankroll based on the past few days but we should be up units overall from my plays. The Rangers go into Winnipeg with a TT of 2.5 juiced to 185. I don’t hate playing 3 here to save the price (-120) but in reality, you’re risking an extra .65 per unit to need 4 goals instead of 3 to win. You’re sacrificing 1.95 units in risk, to push on 3 instead of winning 3 units for example. I prefer to play to win. Goaltending is the matchup tonight with Igor and Hellebuyck in net. Both have played well, but not elite. The Rangers are 6-2 on the year and 5-1 on the road and I like the matchups they’re getting. The two meetings last year did not go in the Ranger’s favor, but I expect different outcomes tonight with Laviolette behind the net. Laviolette has been a key piece in the Rangers hot start and these are the games the Rangers do not want to lose. I expect the Rangers offense to be able to push this game and score three. Igor should be able to keep Winnipeg at bay and steal this as a 3-2 / 4-2 / 3-1 / 4-1 type win for the Rangers.

Red Wings vs. Islanders

I tend to stay away from these two playing each other unless it’s a holiday matinee. Detroit is a much better team than they’ve been the past few years, and the Isles still struggle to score. They don’t score empty net goals as we continue to find out, and our TT of three against Columbus turned into a loss instead of a push in a 2-0 win. These are the frustrating losses we’ve been enduring recently. With Sorokin in net, the Islanders have the edge. Alex Debincat has four total points in ten games against the Islanders in his career as well. This is not a game I want to play just because of my personal bias against the Isles and you don’t know who they will be each night. Their offense is averaging a goal and a half less per game than Detroit, and they’re not playing as well defensively in net for the difference to be notable. The Wings getting the juice here makes sense to play. I just will not be.

Columbus vs. Dallas

I don’t see a path where Columbus wins this game. I just don’t like the lines for the Stars. My pregame lean would be their team total at 3.5 but they don’t play Columbus explosively enough for me to feel this is a smash spot. It should be though. Dallas is a far superior team that is playing slow grind-out hockey right now and they’re winning, so there’s nothing wrong with that. Their ML is a parlay piece in my opinion and their total is a line I would look to get live if it drops to 3 or less.

Chicago vs. Arizona

I think this is a ladder game. Connor Ingram and Petr Mrazek are slated to start tonight. Both teams should have the ability to score on sloppy open play tonight and I want to be a part of it.

Montreal vs. Vegas

You will see why I keep telling you Montreal is not a good team even though we keep seeing them win. This should be an embarrassing game for the Canadiens against a Vegas that keeps scoring. We will be playing 3.5 here before the games start and if we are up big heading into this game we will double down and add more to this play. I love this spot with Jake Allen slated to start for Montreal. Make sure you are around again before this game starts for any updates.