Hey everyone,
Another great night last night. Would have loved to get the live but glad we won. I wish we had 10 units on the play but risking 19 was a lot to ask.
There is a lot to like tonight but I’m only making one big play. I will add a round robin in for everyone so we can have some extra action and will breakdown my leans but I’m limiting my exposure.
I’m laying off Washington. They don’t always play Columbus well but they should put up 4 or more today. I say should because Columbus has surprised many so far this season and they’re coming off a loss to Winnipeg last night. I think this is too risky to lay into it. If you want to play the game you need to lay the 1.5 puck line or -145 for the team total. I could be wrong on the Capitals but they are a team I feel will regress soon and level out. They have played extremely well beating very good teams so far this season so I am not completely sold on me being right about them regressing. I would rather wait and see how they play out of the next week or two but I willingly admit that if you want to ride Washington’s hot start this season you could be right.
I’m steering completely clear of the Blues game and the Senators game. Two out of conference matchups with very different styles of play in Toronto/St. Louis, and two very different teams in Seattle and Ottawa than they’ve been in years past. I have 0 interest. If I had to make a play I would take Toronto and the over in Seattle but I’m not sold enough to bother.
Buffalo and Detroit just played and saw 8 goals. The easy assumption here would be that this game goes over but I don’t want to rely on two sub .500 teams to score 6 or more goals. Both teams are giving up more than three goals per game but I think UPL is a great goalie who can shut a game down on any given night. This may be a game I regret not playing but it’s a loss I would be more pissed about losing.
Pittsburgh is a game I want action on so they are the first team I’ll be using in the round robin. They always play Montreal well scoring 3 ore more goals in the last six and nine of their last ten. I am round robinning them because I would rather have 2.5 units in play reliant on a bigger payout than taking their total straight for 2 units at -140 and risk 2.8. Bryan Rust is a big piece for me on this Penguins offense and with him out I have reservations.
Colorado and Nashville is another game I am putting in the round robin and playinng straight. The Avs are riddled with injuries but had picked up the tempo before their two game losing streak. I expect the offense to get on the board similar to Edmonton the other night. Juuse Saros has good numbers against the Avs going 5-2-1 with a 2.67 GAA against them, but hes given up three or more goals enough for me to know it’s more than possible. Justus Annunen is 4-1 with a 2.48 GAA on the year and may be the biggest fraud story of the season so far. Nashville is coming off a really bad loss to Edmonton and their offense is really struggling with all of their offseason signings. A matchup against Annunen is what this offense needs to get back on track and they’ve scored six or more goals in seven of their last eight matchups. I’m going to split this up the more I think about it. I am going to play the game over 5.5 in the round robin and lay into the Predators team total pregame and again live.
If Demko or Silovs were in net there is no way I would be laying into the full game total this way but with Kevin Lankinen in net I expect the Sharks to contribute to this game total. What we are looking for here is a 4-2 lead by Vancouver at worst. With Lankinen in net I am more comfortable playing both sides in case I am wrong with Vancouver, but feel free to play their team total over 3.5 as well.
Official Plays:
- 4 pm Kings Team Total over 3: 1.5u
- 8 pm Nashville Team Total over 3 -145: 5u
- 8 pm Nashville Team Total over 2.5 -150 LIVE: 5u
- 10 pm Vancouver/San Jose over 5.5 -160: 5u
- ROUND ROBIN: (MGM) risk 2.5 to win 7.255
- Penguins Team Total over 3
- Nashville/Colorado over 5.5
- Vancouver/San Jose over 5.5
- Vegas ML
