Hey everyone! The NHL Draft Lottery is set to draw on May 5th. The NHL Draft Lottery works as follows: There are two lottery drawings. A team can move up a total of ten picks Only top 11 teams can move up to 1. Only top 12 can earn 2nd pick. The remaining draws will be appointed in inverse order. Two years ago we hit a +700 betting the Chicago Blackhawks would leap the Ducks to get Connor Bedard and they did. I believe the draft system is rigged at times and that is what we will be looking to do here.
Last year we hit San Jose +220 to remain the top pick and they did. This year they are projected to go 1st again. I find it hard to believe the league will let the Sharks pick first two years in a row, but this years first overall pick lacks the start power that the past two Yeats had with Bedard and Macklin Celebrini.
With that said, there are two teams I believe the league would want to win this first pick. When breaking this down we look at history and markets and there’s two stand out teams. The Chicago Blackhawks again are a top contender to receive this pick. James Hagens is no longer projected to go 1st overall so the Sharks could still land the top forward being bumped out of the 1st. They also had multiple first round picks last year and took defenseman Sam Dickinson at 11. This year’s top pick is expected to be defenseman Matthew Schaefer.
This would be a perfect chance for the Hawks to get bumped up to first again and pair Schaefer on the back end with Bedard up front. The league wants the Hawks to get back to their cup reigning ways and they need Bedard to flourish. He will need help to do that and this is a perfect chance. The Hawks currently sit at +600 to jump up.
The bruins in my opinion are the next team to jump and they are +1100. The Bruins missed the playoffs for the first time in a long time and are on a downward swing. This pick probably won’t do what it needs to for them to get back to where they were, especially if Marchand doesn’t go back there so it’s less likely. Another team that could get the pick would be the Penguins. Crosby is nearing the end of his career and I’ve read he is not happy with the Mike Sullivan firing. Their defense has been a major problem for them and the league maneuvered the draft for them to get Crosby in the first place. What better way to make him happy and keep him in Pittsburgh than to give them a number 1 defenseman heading into next season?
The Sharks are +260 so they are an easy hedge if all of this is wrong.
Official Plays:
Teams to draft 1st overall:
- San Jose Sharks +260 hedge: 1u
- Chicago Blackhawks +600: 2u
- Boston Bruins +1100: .5u
- Pittsburgh Penguins +1800: .75u
