Thoughts
The Ravens should be considered the favorites for this division even though they took a hit on defense. In my opinion, the Bengals have just as many question marks as the Ravens entering the year and until a team knocks off a healthy Lamar Jackson, no other team should be favored over the Ravens for the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson is coming off of his second MVP season and will look to continue that into 2024. On offense, believe it or not, the Ravens should be improved in 2024 than 2023. This is the second year Lamar Jackson will be in the Todd Monken system, opening up the playbook more and more. The Ravens are healthier than they’ve ever been and now have Derrick Henry in the backfield, who I trust will see a boost in efficiency having Monken call plays. On the flip side, the defense will see a decent regression which will force the Ravens to be more aggressive on offense. On defense, they have lost three significant coaches to promotions this offseason. Former Defensive Coordinator Mike MacDonald has left to become the Head Coach in Seattle. Former Defensive Backs Coach Dennard Wilson has left to be the defensive coordinator in Tennessee. Lastly, former Defensive Line Coach Anthony Weaver left to be the defensive coordinator in Miami. The Ravens ended up promoting Zach Orr, who was their Linebacker coach in 2023 and played for the team from 2014 to 2016 at a high level until being forced into retirement due to injury risk. Orr is the youngest defensive coordinator in the NFL at only 30 yards old, but he brings a ton of energy. There will be a learning curve and bumps along the way, but inside the Ravens organization, there are high long-term hopes for Orr to be a prominent coach in the NFL for a long time. Outside of coaching the Ravens have improved personnel-wise and should be just as talented on defense as they were last year.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals come in this year as a slight favorite over the Ravens, but it has a lot to do with speculation on Joe Burrow making that big of a difference. Last year, the Bengals finished 9-8, missing the playoffs. They were 5-4 when Burrow went down and proceeded to finish 4-3, excluding the game Burrow got hurt in before halftime. The biggest loss the Bengals will see from 2023 to 2024 is losing Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, to the Tennessee Titans. While Head Coach Zac Taylor called plays for this offense, Callahan is widely credited with a lot of the success this offense has had, specifically with the QB room. I expect the Bengals to be more of the same in 2024 as they were in 2023 but with a healthy Burrow for the whole season. This puts them rightin line with their Vegas win total of 10.5, placing them at 10 to 11 wins, which I don’t think is enough to overtake the Ravens for the division title.
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns enter 2024 being a team that has a great defense but question marks on offense, even though they have invested a ton of money onto the offensive side. The biggest issue with this team stems from the QB position and whether Deshaun Watson can return to his pre-sexual assault version as a player. He has been horrible since joining the Browns and has dragged the team down as a whole, having a 59.8% completion rate, averaging only 184.8 passing yards, 1.2 TDs, and .8 INTs per game. The Browns are 8-4 in these games but as I mentioned, it is largely due to their defense. While their defense is still good, as I stated, the entire division has improved at a faster rate than the Browns have. The Browns will need dominos to fall properly to pull off a division title and to improve on their 2023 season with Watson under center.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The only reason I would bet the Steelers to win the division is because +800 is too long of a line given this team’s history. When you have a team that went 9-8 last year, and history says they will be over .500, a +800 line is attractive. This team has improved immensely on offense, vastly improving their offensive line, QB room, and play-caller while also getting healthier. Their only main loss is stud WR, Diontae Johnson, but they have a night and day improvement at player caller (Arthur Smith) and the QB position. Improvements on the already ascending offensive line will help their quarterback additions as well. Russell Wilson is who I firmly expect to be the Week 1 starter for this team and Russ has been a consistent winner throughout his career. The Steelers will play tough defense (reports are that their defense looks better than expected) and run the hell out of the ball on offense. This play style keeps teams in games throughout the season, and as I said, if the dominos fall properly, this team could trip and fall into a division title similar to how the Titans did for the AFC South in 2021.
Final Rankings Prediction
- Baltimore Ravens (+145) – BET
- Cincinnati Bengals (+140)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+800) – BET
- Cleveland Browns (+600)
