Thoughts
I think the Falcons to win this division at -145 is one of the better bets on the board. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers get the nod of being the second best team simply because they won the division last year, but that was more or less by default. Behind both teams, the Panthers’ arrow is pointing up while the Saints are my favorite to finish with the worst record in the NFL and see Dennis Allen be the first Head Coach canned.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are going to do this year what they should have done last year with the two major components boiling down to coaching and QB play. They are far and away the best in this division on both sides of the ball, while also having what I believe to be the best coaching staff. They fired 2023 Head Coach Arthur Smith and brought in 2023 LA Rams Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris. Morris brings the same philosophies as we’ve seen instilled in the Rams and 49ers (basically anyone from the Shanahan tree) over the last few years and with Morris comes the Rams 2023 Passing Game Coordinator and QB Coach Zac Robinson. You may remember Robinson from his days slinging it around as a dual threat QB at Oklahoma State from 2006 through 2009. He brings immense efficiency and a heightened threat to this offense that will be attacking downfield with creative schemes while also funneling the offense through their star RB Bijan Robinson. They also added Kirk Cousins via free agency and then proceeded to draft Michael Penix 8th overall in the NFL Draft. This team also added players such as Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons as recently as last week to tighten up depth on the defensive side. I know I was high on this team last year as a potential breakout but everything went wrong. The Falcons went out and fixed it by bringing in a new coaching staff and revamping the QB room. They have depth across the board and it would take a full on collapse for them to lose this division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs won the division in their first year without Tom Brady, a year in which they were supposed to be rebuilding. They found what they view as their franchise QB in Baker Mayfield who led them to a 9-8 record and division title. This led to them winning their first playoff game against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round 32-9 before falling in Detroit to the Lions in Round two 31-23. This team didn’t upgrade much and are more or less the same team entering 2024 as they were in 2023 so it is hard to not see regression as the rest of the division has improved along with the entire NFC. I think the Bucs are closer to the Panthers than the Falcons in terms of competition.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers should be viewed as an ascending team with promise under Dave Canales. Canales was able to exceed expectations with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023 and get QB Baker Mayfield paid over the offseason. He will be tasked with the same thing this year with 2023 1st overall pick Bryce Young. The Panthers revamped their offensive skilled group by trading for WR Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers, drafting WR Xavier Leggette with the last pick of the 1st round, and then taking RB Jonathan Brooks shortly after in the second round at pick 46. They also gave a massive 4 year $80M contract to Offensive Guard Robert Hunt. They are building their offensive line to be superior at run blocking which is what the Panthers plan to do a ton of in 2024. On defense, we will see more of the same with little changes. One big plus is that Defensive Coordinator Ejiro Evero will be returning to the team. Evero is an up-and-coming coach who will be a head coach sooner rather than later. Keep in mind that last year this run defense was poor and we were able to consistently target them week in and week out on the ground as they sported one of the league’s worst run defenses and one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. That will be more of the same in 2024.
New Orleans Saints
I project this is the worst team in the NFL. Their defense is solid but their offense will be atrocious, even with the upgrade of Klint Kubiak over Pete Carmichael. They did minimal to upgrade the team and have taken big steps back with an already poor offensive line. Derek Carr could be a serviceable QB, but his inability to consistently see pressure and be productive continues to be a problem. The only change the Saint did make was a change at offensive coordinator. I expect early struggles, and Dennis Allen is atop my list of first Head Coaches to get canned in 2024.
Final Rankings Prediction
- Atlanta Falcons (-145) – BET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+350)
- Carolina Panthers (+1100)
- New Orleans Saints (+380)
