Week 3 Waiver Wire

Note: Every suggestion will be pulled from either the Yahoo or ESPN rostership, and everyone in these articles will be less than 50% rostered on at least one of those sites. Only some leagues are cut and dry the same so this is just a template for a 12 team full PPR league. There may be players that would have made this article but are rostered in over 50% of the leagues on both sites so they were not included because you’re either in a smaller league or bigger league. If you have questions, please get in chat and ask. Going forward, I will list the bye week schedule below as it is going to become more important as we plan for that moving forward.

 

Week 5: DET, LAC, PHI, TEN

Week 6: KC, LAR, MIA, MIN

Week 7: CHI, DAL

Week 8: NONE

Week 9: PIT, SF

Week 10: CLE, GB, LV, SEA

Week 11: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

Week 12: ATL, BUF, CIN, JAX, NO, NYJ

Week 13: NONE

Week 14: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WAS

QB

Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) – 3%

At some point we can’t ignore what the Saint offense has done the first two weeks of the year. After Week 1, i chalked up their entire performance as just beating the piss out of the worst team in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers. In Carr’s two games the Saints haven’t even been pressed because they dominated the Panthers like I mentioned and then the Dallas Cowboys. On the season, Carr has thrown the ball 39 times, completing 30 of them for 443 yards and five scores with only one interception. This has resulted in a +.47 EPA/DB and him averaging 21.6 points per game on less than 20 pass attempts per game which puts him as the QB2 in PPG on the year so far. In Week 3 the Saints will host the Eagles in what projects to be a high scoring affair before visiting the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, another projected high scoring game in a Dome atmosphere. You can confidently fire up Carr each of the next two weeks and I don’t expect a return to earth until Week 5 when he visits the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

Justin Fields (Pittsburgh Steelers) – 2%

It is trending that Justin Fields is going to get yet another start in Week 3 when the Steelers host the LA Chargers. So far the Steelers have protected Fields well and have been able to hide his deficiencies while playing elite defense and grinding the ball on the ground. This has resulted in only 11.7 points per game which has resulted in him sitting as the QB22 on the season. In the air, he has been significantly protected by Steelers Offensive Coordinator, Arthur Smith. Smith has allowed him to only throw the ball 43 times which has resulted in a 6.3 YPA and only 273 passing yards. They aren’t forcing him to run the ball on the ground either as through two games he only has 22 rush attempts for 84 scoreless yards. However, they can only do this for so long and eventually they are going to have to use him more as a weapon and I think this is the week we should see that. The Chargers offense is good and more in sync than any offense the Steelers have faced so far. I don’t expect a high scoring affair here by any means but if I’m going with a streamer, I want the athletic rushing upside from a QB who can break a 50-yard TD run on any play in the blink of an eye. 

Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) – 0%

Sam Darnold offers a solid baseline in what has become a dumpster fire at QB this year plus his schedule the middle of the year is very attractive. While the Texans defense is solid, they are susceptible to big plays and have an offense that should create a pass approach at minimum in the 2nd half of that game. After the Texans in Week 3, the Vikings will face the Packers, Jets, Lions, Rams, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans. With a Bye Week mixed in (Week 6) this is a scenario where if you need a streaming option you can use Darnold Weeks 3 and 4 then Weeks 7-11 without hesitation.

RB

Braelon Allen (New York Jets) – 15% 

The wire sucks this week for RBs but Braelon Allen stands out. Allen popped in Week 2, bursting for a 12-yard TD reception and a 20-yard TD run. He took 36% of the snaps, up from 16% in Week 1. He saw 30% of the rushing attempts and a very impressive 15% target share while running a route on 36% of the chances. Basically, Hall and Allen had a 65/35 split in this game with Breece Hall obviously being the main back. I expect this split to continue going forward as the young back displayed talent and to earn the trust of Aaron Rodgers this quickly demonstrates a lot more than we all think. Not only is Allen an elite handcuff in an offense that will heavily feature their RBs but he is now displaying stand along FLEX value to help with the upcoming Bye weeks.

Ty Chandler (Minnesota Vikings) – 10%

During the Vikings Week 2 victory over the San Francisco 49ers starting RB Aaron Jones was banged up and unable to return to the game. Chandler ended up finishing with 82 rushing yards on 10 carries and was the driving force behind the Vikings clamping down at the end and sending the 49ers home. He finished with a +2.6 Rushing Yards over Expected per Attempt and a +4 Rush EPA. He had three 10+ yard rushes and hit 15+ MPH on four of his runs. At the end of the day, the Vikings love Chandler and if Jones were to miss any time, the talent and production is there. With Jones active I do expect Chandler to slowly eat into Jones’ role as the season progresses and we start to see Jones wear down. Scoop Chandler in every league if you have the spot.

Samaje Perine (Kansas City Chiefs) – 5%

Antonio Gibson (New England Patriots) – 0%

Gibson is the handcuff to Rhamdonre Stevenson offering a little value beyond that. While Stevenson commands the majority of the work, seeing 75% of the snaps so far this year and 67% of the rushing attempts, Gibson could start to eat into that. Gibson is still recovering from a training camp injury and getting ramped up. He has seen 22% of the snaps and 26% of the attempts so far but those numbers slightly grew from Week 1 to Week 2 as it went from 20% of the snaps to 24% and 20% of the rush attempts to 32%. As the season wears down, Gibson should organically eat a little bit more into the ground work as well as earning more targets just due to season long wear and tear and the burst Gibson displays. He is a high volume handcuff that could turn into a low end FLEX play if he continues to eat into Stevenson’s work on a slow offense. 

Tyrone Tracy (New York Giants) – 0%

Devin Singletary is fully entrenched as the starter in New York but if something were to happen to the heavily used back, Tracy is the next man up. Tracy is more or less useless if Singletary is active but it is worth noting that regardless of the pecking order and rotation (if Singletary goes down), Tracy would be in line for the receiving work as well as the goal line work. In this game Tracy took both goal line snaps from Singletary and operated as the goal line back even with a fully healthy Singletary. A handcuff that we can project to have both air work and goal line work is valuable in the instance the starter goes down. 

Top RB Handcuffs

Braelon Allen (New York Jets)

Zach Charbonnet (Seattle Seahawks)

Blake Corum (LA Rams)

Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons)

Ty Chandler (Minnesota Vikings)

Trey Sermon (Indianapolis Colts)

Antonio Gibson (New England Patriots)

Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Tyrone Tracy (New York Giants)

Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)

Ray Davis (Buffalo Bills)

Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville Jaguars)

 

WR

Quentin Johnston (LA Chargers) – 30%

What the fuck. Okay, so Johnston is a thing? I’m not joking, they are using Johnston as their WR1 so far this year. Through two games QJ has a 84% route participation, 39% first read target rate, 26% target per route run, 25% target share, 11.3 ADOT, 39% of the air yards, 40% of end zone targets, 51% of the 3rd down targets, and 14.4 PPR points per game through two games. This is not a player I imagined emerging even though Jim Harbaugh was pumping him up all offseason. He is the only one widely available on waivers that can produce as a team’s ipso facto WR1 for the remainder of the season. 

Tyler Johnson (LA Rams) – 12%

I’m going to prioritize Tyler Johnson over Demarcus Robinson this week and it is due to projected usage. With Cooper Kupp now sidelined for 5-7 or more weeks and headed to the IR, the Rams receiving group is turning to Tyler Johnson and I fully expect him to eat up the middle of the field work which is what is profitable in the Rams offense. While the Week 2 loss ot the Cardinals went off the rails, Johnson ended 2nd on the team behind Robinson with a 78% route participation. His usage likely would have climbed towards 100% if the Rams weren’t blown out and sat their starters the final two drives. Johnson currently has a 17% target per route run and 14% target share with 7 ADOt, putting his targets as quick layups to help with the offensive line issues the Rams are experiencing. I like Johnson more than Robinson due to that very reason with Robinson’s role not really changing in the offense whereas I expect Johnson to be first in line to be the target hog of this offense, if one were to emerge. 

Demarcus Robinson (LA Rams) – 10% 

This piggy backs on the suggestion last week but drives home even more given Cooper Kupp left Week 2’s loss against the Cardinals with an ankle injury and in a walking boot. With the projection Kupp misses 5+ games, Robinson should see a slight increase in role. Season to date Robinson has a 90% route participation with a 13% target per route run, 14% target share, 14.3 ADOT and 40% of the Rams endzone targets.

Adam Thielen (Carolina Panthers) – 5%

Bryce Young has been benched! The balls on Dave Canales to make this call is phenomenal. Bryce Young looked absolutely horrible out there and Canales was already on the verge of losing the locker room. We saw Thielen visibly frustrated multiple times so far this year due to Bryce Young just being a bad QB. It is hard to project what Thielen will be in this offense but the offense as a whole should look like an actual NFL offense moving forward. Andy Dalton is one of the best backups in the NFL and can still sling it. I fully expect Thielen to be a target hog with Diontae Johnson in this offense and it is worth noting Thielen has a connection with Dalton. Last year in Dalton’s only start, he threw the ball 58 times and Thielen saw 14 targets, catching 11 of them for 145 yards and a score.

TE

Hunter Henry (New England Patriots) – 3% 

Henry was a TE I was over market on entering the year and the reason was due to this offensive structure. Organically this scheme incorporates their TEs at a high level and along with that this offense is a run first team that will utilize high percentage passing plays. Through two games Henry has a ridiculous 85% route participation, 25% target per route run and a 30% target share. He even had 31% of the team’s air yards with a low ADOT (7) and a 85% catchable target rate. Henry should be considered a low end TE1 until further notice.

Colby Parkinson (LA Rams) – 0%

The LA Rams are in a spot with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the IR and out for the foreseeable future. This leaves an entire pie of targets to go around and Parkinson should see some of them. This isn’t sexy but TE, as always, is thin. Parkinson has an 81% route participation but only a 10% target per route run and 9% target share. His low ADOT (3.9) offers some PPR upside and even though he hasn’t, I’m sure he’ll be used in the endzone more going forward given they are down their top two receiving options.  

Jonnu Smith (Miami Dolphins) – 0%

I know this ones tough but Jonnu Smith has higher upside than guys like Zach Ertz or Cole Kmet. With Tua Tagoviola set to miss some time we will see Skylar Thompson take snaps. Thompson is a dink and dunk artist so aside from the Dolphins targeting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at their normal 30% clip, Thompson will be busy dumping it off to his RBs or having quick hitters to the TE spot. On the season Jonnu has a 54% route participation, 21% target per route run and 14% target rate. It isn’t pretty but in deeper leagues he can provide some upside in a pinch.

 

DST

Chicago Bears – 5% 

As I mentioned before the season, this Bears defense is legit. They are currently sitting as the DST2 on the season and are coming off a game in which they played well against CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans, holding them to only 19 points while accruing three sacks and a 30.8% pressure rate. The real appeal here is their upcoming schedule. Starting in Week 3, they visit the Colts, Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars before they have a Week 7 Bye and when they come back from the Bye they have the Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots. So from Week 3 through Week 10 you have two games in which you can’t confidently fire up the Bears defense and that is during their Bye Week (Week 7) and at Arizona (Week 9). The Bears DST is a plug and play every other game offering a high floor and high ceiling.  

Las Vegas Raiders – 0%

The Raiders are available in nearly every league and they shouldn’t be. As I mentioned prior to the year they have a very good defense under Antonio Pierce both talent wise and schematically. While it hasn’t translated to performance yet, they have also faced the LA Chargers in Week 1, a very, very tough offensive scheme to face as a fantasy DST and the Ravens in Week 2 in Baltimore, another offense along the same lines as the Chargers. However, they have a great schedule coming up starting with Week 3, hosting the Carolina Panthers. After the Panthers they host the Browns and then visit Denver to take on the Broncos. After those three great matchups they have another projected low scoring affair at home against the Steelers and then visit LA to face the Rams, who currently are in shambles in terms of health. 

 

Seattle Seahawks – 0%

Mike Macdonald has done a solid job quickly turning around the Seahawks defense as they are playing sound and confusing defense right out the gate. This add is specifically based on matchup as the Seahawks will host a Miami Dolphins offense that is banged up and will be without starting QB, Tua Tagovailoa in this matchup and will be trotting Skylar Thompson at QB. While they’ve played well the Seahawks have managed to only be the DST15 on the year so far, averaging 6.5 PPG but they have faced the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, two bottom 10 offenses so they are doing what they should be doing against inferior opponents without having any pop games. I don’t expect a pop game here facing a Mike McDaniel offense but they offer a high floor if you are tight on streaming options.