Week 3 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson o65.5 Rushing Yards (-119): 3u – MGM
Antonio Gibson o20.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
Breakdown
Patriots Run Game
A lot of this is going to apply to both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson so I’ll go over that first. The New England Patriots, as expected, are an extremely run heavy offense. They are doing this for two reasons. First, their offensive line is complete garbage and they are doing their best to hide that and coach to their strengths which is run blocking as opposed to pass blocking. Second, the entire philosophy of this team is to be a run first offense, dominate time of possession and play elite defense. They have done this very well so far this year as they enter this game 1-1 with a road victory over the Bengals and a narrow loss at home to the Seahawks. In those two games the Patriots are averaging X rushing attempts per game overall and currently sit with the 8th best Rush/EPA (+3.4) even though they have faced a stacked box 28% of the time which is 5th highest in the NFL to date behind only the 49ers, Saints, Chargers, and Bills. They also sit at 5th in the NFL with a 57.7% run rate, 3rd in total rush attempts (75), 4th in rush yards per game (177.5), and even with all of this they are 11th best in stuffed rate (13.3%) when the opposing defenses know what they are doing. To loop into this matchup against the Jets, let’s start by saying that the Jets currently have the 22nd rated EPA/Rush allowed (+.5), have given up the 9th most rush yards per game (155), and 13th in rushing yards per play (4.7) allowed. Opposing offenses have found a lot of success rushing outside against the Jets (63.6%) whereas the Patriots offense has had most success also rushing outside (57.3%). This isn’t a schematic issue either but rather a personnel issue as they have ran with a stacked box 34.8% of the time which is 2nd highest in the NFL even having a stacked box 21.4% of the time against the Titans poor rush offense in Week 2.
So far on the season, Stevenson has run the ball 46 times hitting 21 in each game so far while accumulating 201 rushing yards on the season, eclipsing 81 in each game. Behind him, Antonio Gibson is finally healthy and it showed in Week 2 as he bursted out for 96 rushing yards on 11 attempts, hitting 15+ MPH twice and displaying a +4.8 EPA with 90 of those 96 yards coming after contact. Both of these lines are too low for a game that I fully expect to stay low scoring and close as the Jets don’t have an offense to dominate any defense let alone a good one on a short week.
Notes
NE + 6.5 @ NYJ – u38.5
Expect a low scoring, slow game. The Patriots, mentioned above, are going to run the piss out of the ball and the Jets won’t push it down field as they play safe methodic defensive football as well. Patriots probably cover and Jets likely win in a low scoring 20-17 type game.
– Allen Lazard o29.5 Receiving Yards: Patriots poor vs. slot where Lazard lined up 63% of the time in W2 with Williams back.
– Hunter Henry 1+ TD (+400): Always a good bet to get in the box at his odds.
– Hunter Henry 1st TD (+1900)
TD Scorers: Breece Hall (-155), Garrett Wilson (+140), Rhamondre Stevenson (+125), Allen Lazard (+295)
