Week 4 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sanaynay9
Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Devin Singletary o58.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– CeeDee Lamb o78.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Jalen Tolbert o28.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 3u – Draftkings
– SGP: Devin Singletary 110+ Rushing Yards, CeeDee Lamb 120+ Receiving Yards (+3400): 1u Draftkings
– SGP: Devin Singletary 110+ Rushing Yards, Jalen Tolbert 70+ Receiving Yards (+6000): 1u – Draftkings
Breakdown
Devin Singletary
Quite simply put, the Cowboys run defense is ass. Through three games they are allowing a league high +.25 EPA/Rush with the next closest being the Bucs at +.15. They are allowing +1.09 rush yards over expected per attempt which is 3rd highest in the NFL (interestingly enough, Giants are worst at +1.52), the most rushing yards per play (5.4), and the most yards after contact per attempt (4.02) in the NFL. They are doing this all while running with a stacked box on 31.1% of their defensive snaps which is the 4th highest rate in the NFL. They flat out just can’t stop the opposing team’s rushing. Over the last two games, Singletary has taken at least 16 carries in each of them and has 65 and 95 rushing yards in those games. He has six runs of 10+ yards and has hit 15+ MPH three times in those games. On the season, he has taken 73% of the team’s snaps with 62% of the rush share. He is the bell cow for the Giants and I fully expect them to ride him here on a short week. It is worth noting however that Tyrone Tracy is coming off of his season highs on the year in almost every category, seeing 29% of the team’s snaps with 14% of their rush attempts and a 35% route participation. I’ll be keeping an eye on his usage and his line, maybe live.
CeeDee Lamb
Lamb is going to get the squeaky wheel treatment in this game regardless. I’m not sure if anyone caught it but Lamb and Dak were having some heated conversations on the sideline with Lamb demanding the ball. Lamb then more or less disappeared as the game progressed. Once these heated minds calm down, they are going to make sure Lamb gets his targets and remains happy. This is the spot to do it. While the Giants defense currently boast an average EPA/Pass (-.15) overall on the year, sitting at 14th best in the NFL, the majority of their hard work has come at shutting down the slot as opposed to WRs out side. They are allowing 186.3 passing yards on the season but they have played the Vikings (208), Commanders (226), and Browns (196). The Vikings dominated the Giants and buried them, going into run mode. The Commanders played a little league offense up until Week 3 with nothing but short screens and secure passes and Deshaun Watson fucking sucks. In Week 1 we saw Justin Jefferson dominate per usual catching four of his six passes for 59 yards and a score before he was barely needed in the 2nd half. I’m caulking Week 2 up as a mulligan since the Commanders decided they wouldn’t play an actual NFL offense but McLaurin caught six of his eight passes for 22 yards (he had an insane usage with an ADOT of 4, just stupid), and in Week 3 Amari Cooper caught seven of his 12 targets for 86 yards and two scores. While the Giants have that -.15 EPA/Pass overall, they are allowing a +.55 (2nd worst) EPA/Pass to the outside and 110.7 of their pass yards per game come from the perimeter (59.42%) while only earning a -.39 EPA/Pass (2nd best) and only giving up 38 pass yards per game (20.4%) to the slot. I have a sneaking suspicion they get Lamb the ball. With all of that said, I also like Bradin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert in this game. Brandin Cooks birthday is on Wednesday (9/25) so I wouldn’t be shocked if they design him a play to get him a score and Jalen Tolbert has been great with downfield passing on the perimeter so look for some chunk plays from him.
Jalen Tolbert
See above for matchup. Tolbert himself has a very nice 85% route participation over the last two weeks with a 15% target per route run and phenomenal 15.8 ADOT resulting in 26% of the Cowboys air yards. Over those two games he’s been able to pull in nine of his 13 targets for 124 yards and a score, topping 82 receiving yards in Week 2 against the Saints and having 42 in Week 3. Attacking with this receiving group and passing offense as a whole will be a recurring theme with the Cowboys having an atrocious defense, I expect them to play in a lot of high scoring games.
Notes
DAL @ NYG +4.5 – o44
There will be more offense than most will expect in this one. Dallas’ defense is bad and Giants low key are putting together some legit, in sync drives. I think the Giants can pull the win off here…
– Brandin Cooks 1+ TD (+240): Birthday narrative.
– Daniel Jones o29.5 Rushing Yards (-110): Primetime narrative for rushing QBs and Dallas run D is awful.
– Tyrone Tracy oRushing Yards: Line not up but I will probably like it. He saw four rush attempts in Week 3, up from 2 in Week 1 and 1 in Week 2.
TD Scorers: Devin Singletary (-115), CeeDee Lamb (-110), Malik Nabers (+130), Ezekiel Elliott (+170), Brandin Cooks (+240), Jalen Tolbert (+275), Jalin Hyatt (+1100)
