Week 3 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. Also, I’ll be making my favorite plays official bets but I’ll also list the plays I am playing for fun or any plays that just didn’t make the cut at the bottom. As always, let me know if you want any clarity on anything in chat.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Joe Burrow o261.5 Passing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Ja’Marr Chase Longest Reception o25.5 (-104): 3u – Fanduel
– Ja’Marr Chase 1+ TD (+125): 3u – Draftkings
– Ja’Marr Chase 2+ TD (+850): 1u – Draftkings
– Ja’Marr Chase 3+ TD (+6000): 1u – Fanduel
– Jayden Daniels o48.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 3u – Fanduel
Breakdown
Bengals Pass Attack
Honestly, I want more than just Burrow tonight from this passing offense and I’ll be pairing him with a Ja’Marr Chase. I think this duo is about to go off on Monday Night. The Commanders are an awful pass defense that has leaked from 2023 into 2024. So far through two games they have allowed by far the highest EPA/Pass (+.48) to opposing offenses with only a 3.1% sack rate (30th). They also entered Week 2 giving up the most YAC over expectation with +72 through two games to those opposing passing offenses. Good WRs have eaten against this team with Mike Evans going 5/61/2 on six targets, Godwin going 8/83/1 on eight targets, and Malik Nabers going 10/127/1 on 18 targets. We saw Baker Mayfield going 24/30 for 289 yards with four scores and no turnovers and even Daniel Jones was nearly perfect going 16/28 for 178 yards and two scores with his WRs dropping multiple passes. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tee Higgins gets in on the action and with his main line being so low I want to splash an alt line up because if he does go off, I think it’ll be a broken deep play so it will be a small splash on him but I think the main target here is Ja’Marr Chase feasting on inferior talent. When the Bengals play against a matchup they can feast on, they fucking feast. It is when they have a tough matchup they clam up and play small ball. They’ll attack the edges here and I’d be shocked if Chase didn’t get loose for a long play with multiple chances at scores.
Jayden Daniels
Honestly, the matchup doesn’t even matter here. If you go with the narrative of this being a primetime game and Jayden Daniels being a rushing QB, we have a mix right there with that to hit this line relatively easily. So far through two NFL games, Jayden Daniels has had 28% of his rush attempts be by design and he has scrambled on 16% of his pass attempts. He has accrued rushing yard counts of 16/88/2 and 10/44/0 so far in the season and is a threat to break a 50+ yard run anytime he takes off. The Bengals run defense as an entirety has the 6th worst rush defense in terms of EPA/Rush (+.07) allowed and have allowed the 6th most rushing yards over expected per rush at +.89. I would typically like to attack with Brian Robinson here but I’m worried the Bengals take off and leave the Commanders stuck in pass mode which is why I fall on Jayden Daniels with a mixture of designed runs and pass heavy scrambles. Passing lines for Austin Ekeler in terms of receptions is a strong line for this one as well.
Notes
JAX @ BUF -5.5 – u45.5
The Jaguars are on the brink of a complete collapse and honestly it has been coming for a while. They are 1-7 in their last eight games and if they continue to lose, Pederson is out and this team could completely spiral to last place.
– Josh Allen 1+ TD: Not buying Cook getting all the goal line touches.
– Josh Allen 2+ TD
– Josh Allen o31.5 Rushing Yards: Thinking last week was a blip and 32+ should be a staple, only concern is a blow out like last week.
– Gabe Davis o39.5 Receiving Yards: Revenge game, nothing more, nothing less.
TD Scorers: Josh Allen (-135), Dalton Kincaid (+195), Brian Thomas Jr. (+255), Gabe Davis (+285), Ray Davis (+400), Luke Farrell (+600)
WAS @ CIN -7 – o46.5
Cincinnati should handle Washington here. This is a team who beats up on lesser competition and thats exactly what the Commanders are. Bengals at home on a longer week coming back fully healthy should smash.
– Brian Robinson Jr. o55.5 Rushing Yards: Worried about gameflow.
– Austin Ekeler o2.5 Receptions: I’d rather bet Jayden rushing.
– Tee Higgins o46.5 Receiving Yards: Low number but I’m focusing on the big play guy who offers more YAC and has been active the first two weeks and practicing, he has a leg up on Higgins for this game big time.
TD Scorers: Zack Moss (-125), Ja’Marr Chase (+110), Jayden Daniels (+130), Tee Higgins (+160), Brian Robinson Jr. (+165), Austin Ekeler (+425), Drew Sample (+1100)
