Vegas continues to be undervalued in my opinion and I can’t figure out why. Linus Ullmark should be back in net after a brief injury absence and it should be a tough matchup to walk back in to. Vegas is averaging four goals a game on offense but giving up three per game and Adin Hill is a big reason why. Hill has four starts and has given up 3 or more goals in four of them and given up four in three of them. Ottawa’s goals per game is a bit inflated. They have two games on 1 goal against Montreal and New Jersey with an 8 spot against the Kings sandwiched in-between. Their two best defensive games came against Utah and Florida. They haven’t shown much consistency yet this season. What I like about this game and why I will be going much harder on the over is this is technically a day game. It’s a 6 pm eastern start which means its a 3 pm start in Vegas and day games tend to be more open in my opinion. I don’t have the statistical data to support that but I feel when players play out of their routine they become more susceptible to mistakes leading to more scoring opportunities and goals. Both teams should get on the board but I do think Vegas wins this one so I will be making the bigger play on the game total and playing the Vegas side for smaller. Vegas is a team that is built on consistency. No matter how much their roster or coaching staff rolls, the consistency in their play never seems to waver. This team is built on star power and their coaching has been prolific. Ottawa is still finding their identity and an Ullmark start after 13 days off should provide some rust.
The Islanders are absolutely terrible right now and are without free agent signing Anthony Duclair. Their scoring is anemic and have been shut out in every other game this season. They have 0 goals in three games against Detroit, St. Louis, and Dallas (three teams top 10 in goals against) and have 14 goals in three games against Montreal, Colorado, and Utah (three teams bottom ten in goals againat). The Devils sit right in the middle of the pack b have given up 19 goals in their past three games. This game should see goals in it but I don’t plan on making a play on the Islanders.
Nashville’s slow start should benefit us here but were going to pay a price. They are 9-1 in their last 10 against the Blackhawks scoring three or more in every win. The Preds are 1-5 on the year after being the biggest players in free agency and got their first win in their last game on Tuesday against the Bruins in a 4-0 shutout. I think that game should spark them to blow through a rival Hawks team that they have major success against lately. We are upp 39 units on the season. I’m going to make a major play on their team total of 3 and make a 10 unit play risking 16 of those units. It’s worth noting that Petr Mrazek is 10-4-0 with a 2.44 goals against average and a .920 save percentage against Nashville but that is in a time frame from 2015. Mrazek went 10-2 against Nashville while with Detroit and a much better Carolina team than the Blackhawks team he is on now. Last season Mrazek went 0-2 against the Preds giving up 4 goals in the first start but only two in the second start, the Preds got their third goal on an empty net. The Predators offense is built much differently this year and I expect them to put up 4 or more tonight.
Pittsburgh and Edmonton could see the most goals on the night collectively but I don’t like playing 6.5 totals. I like the other game more right now and this game is late enough that we can add to it live after the first period in Nashville and after we have a final result in Vegas.
Nashville starts after the Vegas game should be over. We will know our outcome even if Vegas goes into overtime so feel free to hold off on the Preds team total until after the Vegas game is settled so you can change the units if you want.
Official Plays:
- 6 pm Ottawa/Vegas over 5.5 -160: 4u
- 6 pm Vegas ML 130: 1.5u
- 8:30 pm Nashville Team Total over 3 -165: 10u
- 8:30 pm Nashville Team Total over 4 +160: 1.5u
