Week 8 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings. We are up almost 100u so if you’re diving in, just know I am playing as if I am up 100u and being more aggressive. I am more likely to turn a 2u bet into a 3u bet, a 3u bet into a 5u bet and 5u bets are turning into 10u bets. Scale accordingly.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +96.07 Betting Results (2024)
Bets
1pm
– Tyreek Hill o81.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 10u – MGM
– Tyreek Hill 120+ Receiving Yards (+320): 2u – Draftkings
– Tyreek Hill 160+ Receiving Yards (+950): 1u – Caesars
– David Njoku o51.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 10u – MGM
– David Njoku 100+ Receiving Yards (+700): 1u – Draftkings
– David Njoku 110+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – Draftkings
– Jameis Winston o225.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Jameis Winston 275+ Passing Yards (+340): 1u – Draftkings
– Jameis Winston 300+ Passing Yards (+700): 1u – Draftkings
– Stefon Diggs o60.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– CJ Stroud o246.5 Passing Yards (-125): 5u – Draftkings
– ALT Parlay: Tyreek Hill 120+ Receiving Yards, David Njoku 80+ Receiving Yards, Javonte Williams 80+ Rushing Yards, Kenneth Walker 100+ Rushing Yards (+28520): 2u – Draftkings
4pm
– Javonte Williams o62.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Javonte Williams 1+ TD (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– JK Dobbins o76.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Kenneth Walker o62.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Kenneth Walker 100+ Rushing Yards (+500): 1u – Draftkings
– Kenneth Walker 110+ Rushing Yards (+850): 2u – Draftkings
– CAR TT u14.5 (-112): 5u – Draftkings
– CAR TT u7.5 (+350): 1u – Fanduel
– CAR TT u3.5 (+870): 2u – Fanduel
– CAR TT u2.5 (+1500): 2u – Fanduel
8pm
– TBD
See below for a brief breakdown of this game.
Breakdown
Jameis Winston & David Njoku
If you’ve been following along, you know I like attacking the Ravens pass defense and this is another scenario where the Ravens should be able to keep in front of the Browns (road divisional games are very tough) and put Winston to throw. The Ravens are giving up the most passing yards per game to opposing TEs (76.6). They have allowed players like Brock Bowers (9/9/98), Jake Ferguson (11/6/95), Dalton Kincaid (7/5/47), Zach Ertz (5/4/68), and Cade Otton (10/8/100) all have great games against them including Noah Gray and Travis Kelce combining for 7/6/71 in Week 1. The only time a TE, or combination of TEs, didn’t top 47 receiving yards against the Ravens was in Week 5 when the Cincinnati Bengals had Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins absolutely dominate the outside, something the Browns don’t have. Opposing TEs have topped 68 yards against them in five of their seven games and have reached 95+ in three of the seven games. To compound that on top of it, David Njoku has topped 52 receiving yards in six out of his last eight games without Deshaun Watson. The Browns are going to be unable to run the ball against one of the best run defenses in the NFL as their OL is still decimated and Nick Chubb is still getting worked into the offense. This loops right into the Winston line of 225.5 and why it is a 5u bet. The Ravens have given up the most passing yards per game (287.1), have the 4th worst EPA/Pass (+.10) allowed and have allowed the most passing yards per game on throws with air yards between 11-20 yards (92), the 3rd most PYG on passes with 20+ air yards (58.1) and 3rd most on passes with 10 or less air yards (158.3). This all equates to Winston and what the Browns want to do. All of the shot stuff, regardless if the Ravens play man or zone, will go to Njoku who will win at the catch point and has ELITE run after the catch abilities for a TE, and fits right into what Winston does best, yolo the ball deep. The only concern here is that it is a road divisional game for the Ravens but this offense is so different and unique, I don’t think it matters as much. If the Ravens go up by double digits early, I’ll be hammering these props live.
Tyreek Hill
This one is pretty simple. Tua Tagovailoa is back and when he is in the lineup, Tyreek Hill eats. He can take any pass to the house and even initial reports of Tua are that he looks normal (he should, it was a concussion) and that he and Reek were dialing it up looking crisp. The Cardinals are a ripe matchup for Hill and Tua as they have allowed the 7th most passing yards per game (236.9), have the 3rd highest EPA/Pass (+.11) and have specifically been gauged by WRs and deep. They have allowed the 7th most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs (161.4) and they rank 4th lowest in terms of allowing 84.6 YPG a game on passes between 11-20 Air Yards, which is Tua and Reek’s bread and butter. The only issue we could encounter here is that the Dolphins just absolutely destroy it on the ground as the Cards rank bottom 10 in various categories. The have the 8th worst EPA/Rush (+.03) allowed, Have allowed the 6th most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (114.1) and have allowed the 10th most explosive rushes (25) of 10+ yards. I think that Mike McDaniel has been roughing it this last month without Tua and has just been telling Tyreek specifically to hang in there until Tua gets back. Part of being a good offensive coach is making sure your best players are happy and with Reek being forced to do the dirty work with no receiving production to go with it, he peppers him in this game.
CJ Stroud & Stefon Diggs
CJ Stroud is going to chew apart the Colts pass D and Stefon Diggs will be the main beneficiary after digging into it. The big gig here is that due to some recent failures, Stroud comes in with a low line for us to pluck. In three of his last five games, he has averaged 164.33 yards per game on the road and 338 yards at home. In his most recent two games (both outside) he has thrown for 192 and only 86 passing yards. Over his career, he has averaged 311.1 yards per game at home and only 213.5 yards per game on the road (11 games each) with that number being even more drastic in 2024, averaging 312 yards per game in three home games and only 181.8 yards per game in four road games. Long story summarized, Stroud is exponentially better in a dome. He has a chance to right the course here against the Colts who have allowed the 10th most passing yards per game, have the 10th worst EPA/Pass (-.01) allowed and have allowed the 2nd most yards per game on passes that travel 20+ air yards (63.6). That yards per game allowed in the air would be much higher if it wasn’t for the gift of facing Will Levis in Week 6 (95 yards) and the combination of Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley in Week 7 (161 yards). The previous three weeks they allowed 348.66 passing yards per game to an underwhelming trio of passers in Caleb Williams (363 – 3rd NFL Start), Justin Fields (312), and Trevor Lawrence (371). The Colts will be getting back stud interior defender, Deforest Buckner, helping the Colts stop the underwhelming rush attack from the Texans. Also, the Colts should be getting back RB Jonathan Taylor, helping take a load off of QB Anthony Richardson and allowing the Colts to pepper the Texans deep, where they are susceptible. The only way Stroud doesn’t hit 250+ or Dell doesn’t get 100+ is if the Texans burn clock on the ground. In terms of Diggs, since Nico Collins went down in Week 5 Diggs has actually had a higher ADOT than Dell with a 43% air yard share compared to Dell’s 28% share. Also, Diggs has a 30% target share, slightly higher than Dell’s 26% share.
Javonte Williams & Jaleel McLaughlin
It’s simple, the Panthers suck. We saw what the Broncos wanted to be in Week 7, running the ball down the opponents throats except the Broncos defense will be healthier and Bryce Young is the worst QB in the NFL. In Week 7 Javonte ran the ball 14 times for 88 yards and two scores with a +5.2 Rush EPA and 4.8 YACo/Att. The Panthers have completely overtaken my notes sheet with their defense ranking horribly in every category. Per game they have allowed the most rushing TDs to opposing RBs (1.9), the most rushing yards (133.3), 6th most explosive runs (27), 7th highest EPA/Rush (+.04), 7th most YBCo/Att (1.93), 8th rush YPP (4.7), and 11th most RYOE/Att (+.49). I like McLaughlin as a spell to Williams who can take any touch to the house and given Audric Estime has two fumbles in his nine attempts, I think Sean Payton keeps him for the very end, putting him as a live bet candidate if the Broncos are up 25+ points with a quarter left. We would need a reasonable line and enough time left for multiple drives. Both Williams and McLaughlin are great candidates to get in the box.
JK Dobbins
The Saints are banged up on the defensive side of the ball and the only players coming back from injury are on the offensive side of the ball and we will see another week of Spencer Rattler for the Saints at QB. The Saints have a terrible run defense due to this ranking them dead last in Rush YPP allowed (5.4), 2nd worst EPA/Rush (+.11) allowed, 5th most rushing yards per game allowed to opposing backs (117), 5th most rushing TDs allowed per game to opposing backs (1.0), 6th highest RYOE/Att (6th), and 6th most explosive rushes 26) allowed.
Kenneth Walker
I know this is a sour name for a lot of you but I can’t help myself when it comes to the talent of Kenneth Walker. After going for 103 and 80 yards in his first two games against good to great run defenses, he shit the bed against the Giants (5/19) and 49ers (14/32) before coming back to life against the Falcons with a 14/69 line on the ground. The matchup this week is another good one as the Bills will be without LB Terrel Bernard and DT DeWayner Carter, both of whom are major contributors on defense. Even with them, the Bills sport a bad run defense. They have allowed the 10th most rushing yards per game to RBs (105.7), the 4th most Rush YPP (5.1), the 4th most YBCo/Att (2.21), and the 4th most explosive players (29). Like I said, Walker is an explanation waiting to happen and I’ll be damned if I miss it with the Seahawks hosting the Bills in Week 8.
Carolina Panthers
They suck.
No seriously, they’re awful and they will be without any of their actual offensive players in this game. As long as nothing stupid happens like a special teams TD or random fumble returned for a TD, I don’t know how they score. The Panthers will be without Andy Dalton and will be suiting up Bryce Young to go play without WRs Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen. In the two games that Bryce Young started this year they scored a whopping 10 points in Week 1 against the Saints and 3 points in Week 2 against the Chargers. This Broncos defense is better than both, allowing only 15.1 points per game and pumping out a league high -.23 EPA/Play with a league best -.34 EPA/Pass allowed and ranking 9th best in EPA/Rush (-.10) allowed. They blitz at a league high 41.8% rate resulting in a QB Pressure rate of 41.1% which is 3rd best in the NFL and allow a 3rd best 3.2 average yards of separation. Goodluck figuring out a normal way for this Panthers team to score in Denver this weekend. Once you do, please let me know.
Notes
ATL @ TB +2.5 – u46
Slow methodical game where the Bucs run it down the Falcons throats. I’ll take the points for the home divisional team here.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– TB +.07 EPA/Rush (5th worst)
– TB +1.41 RYOE/Att (2nd worst)
– TB 2.55 YBCo/Att (2nd worst)
– ATL +.02 EPA/Pass (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers:
IND +5 @ HOU – o46
AR plays the Texans differently and finds a way over the back end, Stroud lights it up so in what I think is a high scoring game, I want the points.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– IND 222.1 Pass YPG (10th most)
– IND -.01 EPA/Pass (10th most)
– IND 63.6 YPG 20+ Air Yards (2nd most)
– 125.4 Rush YPG to RBs (3rd most)
– IND 31 Explosive Runs (most)
– IND 3.23 YACo/Att (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Dalton Schultz (+245), Xavier Hutchinson (+300), Josh Downs (+310), Alec Pierce (+390), HOU DST (+450), Cade Stover (+600)
BAL @ CLE +8.5 – o44.5
The books aren’t giving Winston enough love. Give me 8.5 for a home divisional team any day of the week.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– CLE 29 Explosive runs (4th most)
– CLE +.61 RYOE/Att (9th most)
– BAL 287.1 Pass YPG (most)
– BAL +.1 EPA/Pass (4th most)
– BAL 179.7 YPG to WRs (2nd most)
– BAL 76.6 YPG to TEs (most)
– BAL 158.3 YPG >10 Air Yards (3rd most)
– BAL 92 YPG 11-20 Air Yards (most)
– BAL 58.1 YPG 20+ Air Yards (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jerry Jeudy (+225), David Njoku (+245), BAL DST (+500), Charlie Kolar (+1500)
NYJ @ NE +7 – u41
Boring ass game. The Jets probably win but I’ll take the points in New England.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– NE 223.4 Pass YPG (9th most)
– NE +.07 EPA/Pass (5th most)
– NE 154.4 YPG to WRs (8th most)
– NE 122.7 Rush YPG to RBs (4th most)
– NE 25 Explosive Runs (10th most)
– NE +.71 RYOE/Att (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Hunter Henry (+300), Tyler Conklin (+360), Drake Maye (+360),
GB -4 @ JAX – o49
Love and this Packers offense will drop 5+ TDs here.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– JAX 273.9 Pass YPG (2nd most)
– JAX +.21 EPA/Pass (most)
– JAX 65.9 YPG 20+ Air Yards (most)
– JAX 78 YPG 11-20 Air Yards (5th most)
– JAX 177 YPG to WRs (3rd most)
– GB 54.9 YPG to TEs (7th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Gabriel Davis (+240), Brenton Strange (+360),
TEN @ DET -11.5 – u44.5
Probably a boring game but I think the Lions win by 2+ TDs with the Titans unable to score, think like a 27-6 type of game.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– DET 245.8 Pass YPG (6th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Kalif Raymond (+240), DET DST (+450)
PHI +3 @ CIN – o48
I’ll take the points in what I think is a more talented roster. Only way the Bengals cover is if Burrow plays a perfect game.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– CIN 1 Rush TDPG to RBs (5th most)
– CIN +.07 EPA/Rush (3rd most)
– CIN +.92 RYOE/Att (6th most)
– CIN 3.27 YACo/Att (9th most)
– PHI 4.7 Rush YPP (8th most)
– PHI 3.32 YACo/Att (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Grant Calcaterra (+320), Erick All (+450), Jack Stoll (+1000), Drew Sample (+1100)
ARI @ MIA -3.5 – o46
This Miami offense will be back and remind every one of what they did in 2023. The Cardinals defense isn’t good enough to stop them and COD just came out so, call me pessimistic on Kyler this week.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– ARI 236.9 Pass YPG (7th most)
– ARI +.11 EPA/Pass (3rd most)
– ARI YPG to WRs (7th most)
– ARI 84.6 YPG 11-20 Air Yards (4th most)
– ARI +.03 EPA/Rush (8th most)
– ARI 114.1 Rush YPG to RBs (6th most)
– ARI 25 Explosive Runs (10th most)
– MIA 3.97 YACo/Att (most)
– MIA 1.3 Rush TDPG to RBs (2nd most)
– MIA +.93 RYOE/Att (5th most)
– MIA 25 Explosive Runs (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Michael Wilson (+270), Trey Benson (+750),
BUF @ SEA +3 – u47
Seattle is a very tough place to play so I’ll take the point. Neither team can stop the run so I think we see a lot of ticking clocks and long drives.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– BUF 5.1 Rush YPP (4th most)
– BUF 29 Explosive Runs (4th most)
– BUF 2.21 YBCo/Att (4th most)
– BUF 105.7 Rush YPG to RBs (10th most)
– BUF 8 Target Per Game to Runs (most)
– SEA 129 Rush YPG to RBs (2nd most)
– SEA 5.0 Rush YPP (5th most)
– SEA 3.85 YACo/Att (2nd most)
– SEA 1.14 RYOE/Att (4th most)
– SEA +0 EPA/Rush (9th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Ray Davis (+260), Jake Bobo (+360), Dawson Knox (+360), SEA DST (+450), AJ Barner (+750),
NO @ LAC -7.5 – u40.5
This Saints team is cooked, I don’t care if they got Chris Olave back. Dennis Allen’s days are numbered.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– NO 248.1 Pass YPG (5th most)
– NO 5.4 Rush YPP (most)
– NO 2.62 YBCo/Att (most)
– NO +.11 EPA/Rush (2nd most)
– NO +.73 RYOE/Att (6th most)
– NO 1 Rush TDPG to RBs (5th most)
– NO 26 Explosive Runs (6th most)
– NO 117 Rush YPG to RBs (5th most)
– LAC 5.9 Targets PG to RBs (7th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Taysom Hill (+255), Will Dissly (+280), Kimani Vidal (+320), Juwan Johnson (+425)
CHI -2.5 @ WAS – u43.5
Suspicious Daniels was reportedly able to return against the Panthers but they didn’t need him yet their first tough challenge Daniels is unlikely to go. I’m still not sold on Daniels so I’ll take the Bears regardless if he plays or not. They’re just a more talented team in every way possible.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– WAS +.04 EPA/Pass (7th most)
– WAS 149.7 YPG to WRs (9th most)
– WAS 73.7 YPG 11-20 Air Yards (9th most)
– WAS +2.09 YBCo/Att (5th most)
– WAS 113.7 Rush YPG to RBs (7th most)
– WAS 30 Explosive Runs (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Rome Odunze (+255), Caleb Williams (+260), CHI DST (+400), Ben Sinnott (+1000)
KC @ LV +9.5 – u41
Patrick Mahomes has been average at best this year and the Raiders always play the Chiefs tough so I’ll take the points in a low scoring game.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– KC 71.6 YPG to TEs (2nd most)
– LV 106.4 Rush YPG to RBs (9th most)
– LV 4.8 Rush YPP (7th most)
– LV 1.28 RYOE/Att (3rd)
– LV 1.89 YBCo/Att (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jakobi Meyers (+350), KC DST (+370), Noah Gray (+390), Ameer Abdullah (+800)
CAR @ DEN -10.5 – u41.5
The Panthers probably don’t score a TD here. Javonte Williams will absolutely feast here.
JFC here we go *takes deep breath*
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– CAR +.20 EPA/Pass (2nd most)
– CAR 223.6 Pass YPG (8th most)
– CAR 1.9 Rush TDPG to RBs (most)
– CAR 133.3 Rush YPG to RBs (most)
– CAR 27 Explosive Runs (6th most)
– CAR 1.93 YBCo/Att (7th most)
– CAR +.04 EPA/Rush (7th most)
– CAR 4.7 Rush YPP (8th most)
– CAR +.49 RYOE/Att (11th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jaleel McLaughlin (+255), Devaughn Vele (+280), DEN DST (+360), Lucas Krull (+475), Adam Trautman (+700)
DAL +4 @ SF – u46
I like George Kittle a ton here and Jordan Mason. I also like CeeDee Lamb coming out of the Bye as a pure volume play in a road game as underdogs. Refer to the stats below in the Notes section but I think mix that with the fact Christian McCaffrey is returning soon and Deebo Samuel is still banged up from being sick, I think the 49ers ride Mason and Kittle here heavily. I have a weird hunch the Cowboys pull it off but there is absolutely nothing statistical to back that up and it is nothing more than a hunch.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– DAL +.07 EPA/Pass (5th most)
– DAL 68.3 YPG 11-20 Air Yards (10th most)
– DAL +.19 EPA/Rush (most)
– DAL 1.1 Rush TDPG to RBs (4th most)
– DAL 3.33 YACo/Att (7th most)
– DAL 25 Explosive Runs (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Brock Purdy (+400), Chris Conley (+475), Kyle Jusczyk (+550)
