With two pushes last night on Edmonton and Seattle I am going back all in on tonight’s slate.
We had a 10u win a few nights ago predicting the Dallas Stars would come out and wipe the floor with the Pittsburgh Penguins. After 20 minutes of play the Stars lead the game 6-0. The Penguins followed that game up with a loss to the Detroit Redwings in overtime giving them four losses in five games with 21 goals against in that span. Columbus on the other hand has lost six in a row scoring 2 goals or less in all six. Something has to give tonight. Tristan Jarry is 8-1-1 in his career against the Blue Jackets and holds a 2.39 goals against average against them. Columbus started the season off as one of the surprise teams with their offensive production. After six games of only scoring 11 goals, plus the 2-0 win they have over the Islanders before that, they are still averaging 3 goals per game on the stat sheets. Don’t let that number fool you.
We are asking a lot from Pittsburgh to keep this game low scoring, but we don’t necessarily need it to be for us to win. I don’t love the fact that Kris Letang won’t be playing, but this is the matchup and game the Penguins need. Pittsburgh is 8-2 against Columbus over their last 10 scoring less than two goals once. What I like to target in these big plays is the ability to push. I am more likely to play a 5u or 10u total when I not only expect the team to score but expect them to win. Rarely will a team win in a 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 type game, and if it does happens it’s a play you just have to chalk up and move onto the next. The Penguins should get to three tonight win or lose. The Penguins are much more skilled offensively and have the offensive input from Erik Karlsson on the defensive side to be confident in their scoring even with Letang out.
Vegas’ numbers are very low tonight and it’s a little flag raising to see their team total at 2.5 -190. Sometimes the books are just wrong and over estimate and overvalue the opposition and being on the road and we usually take advantage of it. I was expecting this total to be 3.5 but Mark Stone being hurt could be why, but Stone hasn’t been ruled out of tonight’s game from what I can see. This could be the trap game of the night but I’m not buying it and see this game as the major miss by the books line wise. The books could be overcompensating for the Knights history against Arizona as of late with them losing three of four to them but this Vegas team is a wagon in my opinion and I want every game I can get their total of 3, let alone 2.5. I am going to play this a few ways. First I want the pregame of 2.5 at -190 but for only 2 units. I am putting an additional 2 units on the total of 3 at -125. Once the game kicks off and the line drops back down to 2.5 live at -140 or better I am adding an additional two units to them. Karel Vejmelka is in net for Utah and he sports a 2-4 record with a 4.00 GAA against Vegas. If it is a trap then I’ll take the L, but I’m not passing up these lines.
Nashville has been atrocious this season, especially after all the offseason moves they’ve made and they are the biggest disappointment to date in the league. They’ve lost seven of nine but their schedule hasn’t been that easy either. They’re losing to teams named Edmonton x2, Florida, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Washington, and Los Angeles; all teams that we should see in the playoffs. Calgary on the other hand has lost seven of ten. Listen, if we weren’t up close to 60u right now in the first month of the season I wouldn’t be throwing units around like this, but we need to keep taking advantage of games while we can and when we hit a big loss we will regroup. Nashville should blow this game out today and I want their team total at 2.5 regardless of the juice. This is a matchup where their skill players should have the room to play and score and get Nashville back in the win column. The Flames aren’t on the level of the teams Nashville has lost to and I consider this matchup similar to Dallas’ matchup against the Penguins the other night. Dallas had lost three of four but like I mentioned those losses were against Florida overseas, and another top loss. Nashville played every game they’ve lost over that span with enough vigor to think they get right tonight against Calgary. The game doesn’t start until 9 pm either so you may wait until puck drop to see how the early games go and if you have a book that pays out immediately you can wait until those cash before putting this in play. I don’t hate the game over of 5.5 as well, but I don’t want to rely on Calgary scoring on Juuse Saros. Their number against him say it won’t be as much of a problem as you may think it would be, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Nashville pitches a shutout tonight and I am going to splash the +1000 for a unit.
Washington and Colorado should see a bunch of goals. If we hit Pittsburgh early we can put two-three units in play on the over 6.5.
Official Plays:
- 7 pm Pittsburgh team total over 3 -165: 5u
- 7 pm Vegas Team Total over 2.5 -190: 2u
- 7 pm Vegas Team Total over 3 -125: 2u
- 9 pm Nashville Team Total over 2.5 -185: 10u
- 9 pm Juuse Saros over .5 shutouts tonight +1150: 1u
