Week 11 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +139.25 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
1pm
– DJ Moore o42.5 Receiving Yards (-117): 5u – Caesars
– DJ Moore 80+ Receiving Yards (+430): .5u – Caesars
– DJ Moore 90+ Receiving Yards (+650): .5u – Caesars
– DJ Moore 100+ Receiving Yards (+900): 1u – Caesars
– Drake Maye o27.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 3u – MGM
– Drake Maye 60+ Rushing Yards (+575): 1u – Caesars
– Drake Maye 70+ Rushing Yards (+900): 1u – Caesars
– Jonathan Taylor o86.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 3u – MGM
– Cedric Tillman o55.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Cedric Tillman 100+ Receiving Yards (+525): 1u – Caesars
– Cedric Tillman 110+ Receiving Yards (+750): 1u – Caesars
– Cedric Tillman 120+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – Caesars
– George Pickens o65.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 10u – MGM
– George Pickens 110+ Receiving Yards (+390): 1u – Caesars
– George Pickens 120+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u – Caesars
– George Pickens 130+ Receiving Yards (+750): 2u – Caesars
– George Pickens 140+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – Caesars
– David Montgomery o54.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
4pm
– Courtland Sutton o52.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Courtland Sutton 100+ Receiving Yards (+575): 1u – Caesars
– Courtland Sutton 110+ Receiving Yards (+800): 2u – Caesars
– Bo Nix o207.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Christian McCaffrey o79.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
8pm
– TBD (See below)
Unofficial Bets
– Jahmyr Gibbs o69.5 Rushing Yards: Eying live, always drops a few yards after the 1st drive.
– Sam Darnold u240.5 Passing Yards: I’m playing this one personally.
– Jameis Winston o239.5 Passing Yards: Went with Tillman. Slight concern he spreads it around.
– Jared Goff o223.5 Passing Yards: Matchup there plus I think Lions may want to right the ship in an easy matchup on Goff’s confidence but I’m not convinced enough Goff even cares he threw 5 picks and his confidence even took a hit. Lions just roll, see below with DMont.
– Kyren Williams o81.5 Rushing Yards: Hasn’t been getting there. Need to see it.
– Nick Chubb o60.5 Rushing Yards: He looks fine but the results aren’t there. Need to see it.
– Zamir White Rushing Yards: Not offered. Won’t be. Pierce wants White to dominate this backfield. New OC could push White’s way so I’ll eye it.
– Davante Adams o58.5 Receiving Yards: Not going through last week again
– Garrett Wilson o67.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Adams. Great matchup, can’t trust ‘em.
– Jaylen Waddle o43.5 Receiving Yards: Reek isn’t right. Waddle should see a bump in volume but I just like other plays on this slate more.
– Jakobi Meyers o57.5 Receiving Yards: Raiders have a Minshew problem. Volume should be there but I’ll bet elsewhere.
– Diontae Johnson 1+ TD: Revenge game plus Tomlin bulletin board material.
– Kareem Hunt o61.5 Rushing Yards: Volume has been nuts, efficiency awful. Good matchup but I can’t get there on Hunt’s current talent production.
– Bijan Robinson o3.5 Receptions: Really like this play. Will likely become an official play pending how we are looking going into 4pm. Kirk’s arm is a little fatigued and Bijan has 17 receptions in his L3 but is coming off of a 3 catch game. Denver has allowed the 5th most receptions per game to RBs (5.8).
Breakdown
Jonathan Taylor
The New York Jets have been a dumpster fire this year and it has gotten worse since firing Head Coach Robert Saleh and inserting Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich into that role. Due to this, Ulbrich can’t focus solely on defense and it has thrown the one good thing the Jets had going for them into limbo. Since Woody Johnson acted like a child and fired Saleh (five games) for losing a game in London to a superior team due to his QB playing like garbage, the Jets defense has given up 148.75 rushing YPG (8th most), own a +0.12 EPA/Rush (2nd highest), have allowed the 5th most PPG (23.25) and have allowed the highest play success rate (68.33%). They have allowed three backs to run for 97 or more rushing yards against them over that span and have been unable to get off the field while also trailing in every game except Week 9 against the Texans, giving them a 1-4 record since firing Saleh. The Colts will be getting Anthony Richardson back under center which is a boost for the ground game in general and should promote a boost overall for the entire offense.
David Montgomery
I touched on it briefly last week with the Cam Akers play but the Jacksonville Jaguars have flipped as the season has progressed and their run defense has been exploited. Over the last three weeks they have been absolutely gashed, allowing 127 yards and two scores to Josh Jacobs on 25 carries in Week 8, 159 yards and a score on 27 to Saquon Barkley in Week 9, and last week 88 rushing yards on 17 carries to Aaron Jones with Jones missing a chunk of the game with an injury. Opposing teams RB’s have at least 32 carries in each of these three games with the Jaguars allowing a ridiculous 153.33 Rush YPG over these games to RBs with a 4.65 YPC. The only concern I have here is the Lions forcing the pass to put Goff’s statline back in favor after his five interception game in Week 10 but regardless we’ll see David Montgomery hammer home on the ground well into the 3rd quarter so we will still see double digit carries from both Gibbs and Montgomery. As usual, I’ll be eying Gibbs after the first drive once Montgomery knocks out 30+ off the cuff. My concern with Gibbs is the Jaguars offense and the Lions using DMont more as a way to keep Gibbs fresher in a blow out win.
DJ Moore
To be honest the metrics don’t scream at DJ Moore here but the Packers and all of the external factors do, which is something we can never ignore. Xavier McKinney slandered DJ Moore on social media and went at him for giving up on Caleb Williams even though DJ Moore and the whole WR group said calling them to get Caleb benched was bullshit. On top of this, we have a new Offensive Coordinator for the Bears in Thomas Brown. I’m not going to post Brown’s play calling data from the final 6 games of the 2023 season when he took over for Frank Reich because quite frankly, they’re useless. Even Brown’s wife, at the time, came out and said Brown was the lamb left behind to call plays on a broken offense because someone had to do it. The Packers metrics are a bit skewed for multiple reasons spanning from their last game being in a monsoon against Jared Goff who plays notoriously bad outside and in the rain, they played a Nico Collinsless Texans at home, again a QB who plays poorly outside. Outside of those games we saw the Jaguars have success in Week 8 with Christian Kirk going for 59 yards, Brian Thomas 60 yards, and even Parker Washington for 46. In Week 6 we did see the Packers shut down the Cardinals so I will give them that but the week prior in Week 5, Jordan Whittington went for 89 receiving yards and Tutu Atwell went for 58. And the week prior to that in Week 4 Justin Jefferson hauled in 85 receiving yards and Jordan Addison 72. And even in Week 3 Hopkins pulled in 73 on a broken Titans offense. The point I’m getting at here is that the Packers are beatable. A new Offensive Coordinator nullifies the Bye Week bump that the Packers were supposed to get because how can you gameplan extensively on a guy with next to nothing to go off of? If I’m Thomas Brown, I’m peppering my disgruntled stud (who I think did have some choice words for former OC, Shane Waldron) and earning brownie points off the cuff. Quick, easy passes from Caleb to DJM and let him work, build that chemistry immediately.
Drake Maye
In Drake Maye’s five NFL starts, he has run for an average of 43.8 yards per game. He has topped 38 in three of those five starts with the two exceptions being Week 7 against the Jaguars, a game we targeted Maye (and won heavily) in the air because we knew their pass defense was garbage at the time and last week against the Chicago Bears, who is a stout defense all together and held Maye within the pocket. In his other three starts he had 38 against the Texans in Week 6, 46 against the Jets in Week 8 (a game only played half), and 95 in Week 9 against the Titans. Maye is getting more and more comfortable and the Rams have the 2nd highest QB Pressure Rate (41%) in the NFL yet only the 9th highest Sack Rate (8%) in the NFL. I don’t have much faith at all in this Patriots Offensive Line which is going to cause more pressures than usual and Maye has shown an amazing ability at navigating the pocket and escaping that, which I expect him to do multiple times in this game.
Cedric Tillman
Over the last three weeks Tillman has come alive with 31 targets (9+ in each), catching 21 of them for 255 and has accrued at least 75 in all three games. He is playing primarily on the outside at the X and has earned a team high 33.8% air yard share, 22.3% target share, 23% TPRR, 1.9 YPRR, 8.23 YPT, and 2 YACo/REC. He also leads the team with a 27.2% 1st read share. He is the only receiver on the Browns to break a tackle as well with 4 of them over the three game span. This week he faces the New Orleans Saints who have allowed the 3rd most receiving YPG to WRs (169.3) with the 6th most on balls traveling 11-20 air yards per game (78) and 9th most on passes traveling 20+ air yards per game (40.7). Since Week 2, they have allowed 11 WRs to record 50 or more receiving yards against them with six having 90+ or more and three having 110 or more. The other option here is Jerry Jeudy but with Tillman emerging, all of his metrics, and I mean every single one, is pointing in the direction that Tillman is just flat out better than Jeudy and I’m banking on a breakout game here.
George Pickens
We’ve been targeting the Ravens almost all year and that won’t change now. I won’t bore you with all of the terrible Ravens metrics which showed their head in Week 10 when Ja’Marr Chase went nuclear for 11/264/3 on 17 targets. The Ravens have now allowed a whopping five WRs to have 79+ receiving yards against them the last three games with Courtland Sutton joining Chase at 100+ with a 7/122 stat line on 10 targets in Week 9. Since Russell Wilson has taken over at QB, George Pickens has been unlocked. He has a 26% TPRR but a 34.5% 1st read target rate. Over the last three games with Russ, Pickens has 14 receptions for 276 yards with game totals of 111, 74, and 91. He has 41.3% of the team’s air yards, 3.37 YPRR, 13.14 YPT, and 3.21 YACo/REC and .43 MTF/REC. As I talked about back in August, Russ’ style matches perfectly with Pickens’ downfield attributes. I expect the Ravens to be able to score on the Steelers which is going to force the ball downfield a little bit more than usual and I think the Steelers know they aren’t going to be able to rely on their defense to stuff this Ravens offense, pushing the narrative from the jump.
Christian McCaffrey
It’s weird to see the CMC line so low at 79.5 but I think we all know why. In CMC’s first game back he took 13 of the 15 available RB carries against a tough Bucs rush defense. He looked crisp by the end of the game after he knocked off some rust and looked like the same ole CMC. He finished by taking 54 of the 60 RB snaps in this game and even though he finished with only 39 yards on 13 carries, I’m not concerned because, like I just mentioned, the Bucs rush defense is very good. The Seahawks defense, however, is not.
Courtland Sutton & Bo Nix
Courtland Sutton is quietly having a monster year and has been on fire as of late as Bo Nix gets more comfortable. Since Week 3 (excluding the Week 7 outlier dud), Sutton has a 29% TPRR, 44.1% air yar share, 72.1 YPG, 2.48 YPRR, 8.42 YPT, and a ridiculous 37.7% of Bo Nix’s reads. Overall since Week 3 he has topped 53 or more Receiving yards in every single game except 2 which were Week 5 over the Raiders and Week 7 over the Saints, both of which were dominating wins for the Broncos so Sutton wasn’t needed much so Sean Payton just didn’t draw up plays for him. Over the last three weeks, however, he has taken off. He is 5th in the NFL with 97.3 YPG, has a 31% TPRR, a 44.1% (still) air yard share, 3.04 YPRR, 9.73 YPT, and is the 1st read on 35.9% of the Broncos attempts. He has at least nine targets in each of these three games and 70 or more receiving yards in all three with two games of over 100 receiving yards. This flips over to Bo Nix who has obviously a great matchup as well. Since Week 4, the Falcons have been picked apart in the air. They have allowed the 9th most pass yards per game (243.57) and have the 8th highest EPA/Pass allowed (+0.09). All but one of their opponents over that span accrued 207 or more passing yards except for Baker Mayfield in Week 5 who had 180 passing yards on only 24 attempts so if he had just an average amount of volume, he easily gets there. Overall on the season the Falcons have allowed the 9th most Pass YPG (223.4), the 10th most Pass YPP (6.3), the 7th highest EPA/Pass (+.02), and have been unable to get to the QB (which is their biggest issue) as they have the lowest sack rate (2.4%), and the lowest QB Pressure Rate (27.4%). I fully expect Bo Nix to pick apart the Falcons this week.
Notes
BAL @ PIT +3 – o48
Flip a coin who wins. These games are always decided by a FG. I expect points to be scored.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– BAL 294.9 Pass YPG (most)
– BAL BAL 6.9 Pass YPP (5th most)
– BAL +.09 EPA/Pass (2nd most)
– BAL 31.9% QB Pressure Rate (8th lowest)
– BAL 199.2 YPG to WRs (most)
– BAL 68 YPG to TEs (3rd most)
– BAL 59.7 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– BAL 105.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (most)
– BAL 149.1 YPG on passes <10 air yards (2nd most)
– PIT 147.3 YPG on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Mike Williams (+320), Diontae Johnson (+425), Darnell Washington (+950)
LV +7.5 @ MIA – u44.5
I’ll take the hook for the Raiders after a Bye even though it is on the road. The Dolphins offense just isn’t explosive right now.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– LV +.02 EPA/Pass (7th most)
– LV 5.3% Sack Rate (5th lowest)
– LV 31.3% QB Pressure Rate (6th most)
– LV 54.2 YPG to TEs (9th most)
– LV +1.01 RYOE/Att (2nd most)
– MIA 4.6% Sack Rate (4th most)
– MIA +.78 RYOE/Att (4th most)
– MIA 3.84 YACo/Att (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Zamir White (+370), Odell Beckham Jr. (+650), Jaylen Wright (+650)
GB @ CHI +6 – o41
Coaching change surge for the Bears should off balance the Bye week surge from the Packers so I’ll take the home divisional underdog.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– GB 32.2% QB Pressure Rate (9th lowest)
– GB 3.15 YACo/Att (8th most)
– CHI 72.2 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (8th most)
– CHI 4.8 Rush YPP (5th most)
– CHI +.63 RYOE/Att (8th most)
– CHI 1.78 YBCo/Att (7th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: DJ Moore (+280), Roschon Johnson (+330), Caleb Williams (+370), Cole Kmet (+400)
JAX @ DET -13 – o47
The Lions may score 50 here.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– JAX 264.1 Pass YPG (2nd most)
– JAX 29.7% QB Pressure Rate (4th lowest)
– JAX 7.2 Pass YPP (most)
– JAX +.16 EPA/Pass (most)
– JAX 76.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– JAX 131 YPG on passes <10 air yards (10th most)
– JAX 5.4% Sack Rate (6th lowest)
– JAX 60.9 YPG to TEs (4th most)
– JAX -0.01 EPA/Rush (10th most)
– JAX 38 Explosive Runs (6th most)
– DET 244.2 Pass YPG (5th most)
– DET 81.6 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (3rd most)
– DET 142.1 YPG on passes <10 air yards (4th most)
– DET 32.3% QB Pressure Rate (10th lowest)
– DET 179.2 YPG to WRs (2nd most)
– DET 2.04 YBCo/Att (4th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: DET DST (+400), Sione Vaki (+1000)
CLE +1 @ NO – u44.5
The interim coach juice disappears here and the Browns get the post Bye Week bump and win this one.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– CLE 6.4 Pass YPP (9th most)
– CLE 58.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (5th)
– CLE 36 Explosive Runs (10th most)
– CLE +.63 RYOE/Att (7th most)
– NO 244.6 Pass YPG (4th most)
– NO 6.7 Pass YPP (7th most)
– NO 40.7 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (9th most)
– NO 78 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (6th most)
– NO 139.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (6th most)
– NO 5.6% Sack Rate (7th lowest)
– NO 30.3% QB Pressure Rate (5th most)
– NO 169.3 YPG to WRs (3rd most)
– NO 56 YPG to TEs (8th most)
– NO 113.3 Rush YPG to RBs (6th most)
– NO 5.1 Rush YPP (2nd most)
– NO +.09 EPA/Rush (2nd most)
– NO +.65 RYOE/Att (6th most)
– NO 2.23 YBCo/Att (2nd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jerome Ford (+400)
IND +4 @ NYJ – u44
I’ll take the Colts. I expect a surge with AR back under center. The Jets defense has been hot garbage since they fired Robert Saleh.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– IND 238.4 Pass YPG (6th most)
– IND 6.8 Pass YPP (6th most)
– IND 5.9% Sack Rate (9th lowest)
– IND 61.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– IND 158.4 YPG to WRs (7th most)
– IND 59.7 YPG to TEs (7th most)
– IND 118.2 Rush YPG to RBs (2nd most)
– IND 3.27 YACo/Att (5th most)
– IND 46 Explosive Runs (most)
– NYJ 45.8 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– NYJ 106.7 Rush YPG to RBs (9th most)
– NYJ 3.24 YACo/Att (6th most)
– NYJ 41 Explosive Runs (4th most)
– NYJ +.02 EPA/Rush (5th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Tyler Conklin (+380)
MIN -6 @ TEN – u39.5
Brian Flores is going to make Will Levis wish he didn’t suit up on Sunday.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– MIN 231.9 Pass YPG (7th most)
– MIN 39.2 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)
– MIN 86.1 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (2nd most)
– MIN 160.2 YPG to WRs (6th most)
– TEN 6.2% Sack Rate (10th lowest)
Longshot TD Scorers: Tyjae Spears (+330), Will Levis (+425), Josh Oliver (+600), Josh Whyle (+750)
LAR @ NE +4.5 – u44
I think the Rams win but traveling across the country, outdoors and in cold weather is going to be a tough adjustment to cover.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– LAR 7.0 Pass YPP (4th most)
– LAR 60.2 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– LAR 3.12 YACo/Att (9th most)
– NO 6.3 YPP (10th most)
– NE -0.01 EPA/Pass (10th most)
– NE 31.3% QB Pressure Rate (6th most)
– NE 147.6 YPG to WRs (10th most)
– NE 117.6 Rush YPG to RBs (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Hunter Henry (+280), Drake Maye (+320), Kayshon Boutte (+425)
SEA +6.5 @ SF – o50
Strictly just taking the points for a team coming off a Bye and an expected tight divisional opponent.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– SEA 141 YPG on passes <10 air yards (5th most)
– SEA 111.1 Rush YPG to RBs (7th most)
– SEA 408 Rush YPP (5th most)
– SEA +0.00 EPA/Rush (9th most)
– SEA 3.69 YACo/Att (2nd most)
– SEA +.92 RYOE/Att (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: None
ATL @ DEN -2 – u44
Kirk rested this week with arm soreness? I’m a tad concerned but either way, he doesn’t translate well outdoors so either way I expect a poor performance from him here against a very good Broncos defense.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– ATL 223.4 Pass YPG (9th most)
– ATL 6.3 Pass YPP (10th most)
– ATL +0.02 EPA/Pass (7th most)
– ATL 27.4% QB Pressure Rates (lowest)
– ATL 2.4% Sack Rate (lowest)
– ATL 52.7 YPG to TEs (10th most)
– ATL 1.71 YBCo/Att (9th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jaleel McLaughlin (+320), Devaughn Vele (+380), Lucas Krull (+700)
KC @ BUF -2.5 – u45.5
Bills regular season, Chiefs postseason.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– KC 5.7% Sack Rate (8th lowest)
– KC 136.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (9th most)
– KC 69.8 YPG to TEs (most)
– BUF 137.9 YPG on passes <10 air yards (7th most)
– BUF 100.7 Rush YPG to RBs (10th most)
– BUF 4.9 Rush YPP (3rd most)
– BUF 38 Explosive Runs (6th most)
– BUF 1.77 YBCo/Att (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: None
CIN @ LAC -1.5 – o47
I think the Chargers win here but I’m not head over heels for that outcome. I think we have an edge here with Gus Edwards who emerged from the IR immediately splitting with JK Dobbins taking 30% of the rush attempts to JK Dobbins’ 45%. Greg Roman raved about Gus this week and according to him Gus is going to be a massive part of this offense as the season runs out. I expect Gus and Dobbins to turn into an even split on early downs and Dobbins dominating the 3rd down and passing downs. The underlying metrics are strong for the Chargers defense overall but Chase is playing out of his mind right now and Tee Higgins is expected back in the lineup which is only going to help both Chase and Burrow. I’m waiting until closer to kickoff with all the dust settled to make any moves.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– CIN 220.2 Pass YPG (10th most)
– CIN 6.3 Pass YPP (10th most)
– CIN +0.02 EPA/Pass (7th most)
– CIN 71 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (10th most)
– CIN 4.5% Sack Rate (3rd lowest)
– CIN 150.5 YPG to WRs (8th most)
– CIN 59.8 YPG to TEs (6th most)
– CIN +0.02 EPA/Rush (5th Most)
– CIN +0.6 RYOE/Att (9th most)
– CIN 3.19 YACo/Att (7th most)
– LAC 72.6 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (7th most)
– LAC 4.7 Rush YPP (8th most)
– LAC 3.32 YACo/Att (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Will Dissly (+310), Justin Herbert (+380)
