Week 11 MNF Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings. 

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Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: +179.18 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets

– Nico Collins o59.5 Receiving Yards (-170): 10u – ESPNBet
– Nico Collins 120+ Receiving Yards (+485): 1u – Caesars

– Nico Collins 130+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u – Caesars

– Nico Collins 140+ Receiving YArds (+800): 3u – Caesars 

– CJ Stroud o234.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– CJ Stroud 300+ Passing Yards (+410): 1u – Caesars

– CJ Stroud 325+ Passing Yards (+750): 2u – Caesars 

– HOU -6.5 (-127): 10u – Draftkings

– HOU -21.5 (+520): 2u – Fanduel

– HOU -27.5 (+1060): 2u – Fanduel

– HOU -33.5 (+2000): 3u – Fanduel

– CeeDee Lamb u60.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Caesars

– Joe Mixon u87.5 Rushing Yards (-104): 5u – Caesars 

Breakdown

Nico Collins & CJ Stroud

If the Cowboys can score even just a measly 2 TDs, this game will get crazy for Stroud and Nico. Nico is returning from an injury and reports are he is 100%, the Texans were just cautious keeping him out in Week 10 which is the smart move with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys defense is ass and Mike Zimmer’s NFL career is coming to a close. While they are bad on the ground, they are allowing the 2nd most pass YPP (7.1), have the 5th worst EPA/Pass (+0.06), and have allowed the 9th most YPG on passes between 11-20 air yards (71.8). With that mark they also have a league high EPA/Pass (+0.70) on those passes between 11-20 air yards, the 4th highest EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (+0.11) and the 14th highest EPA/Pass on passes traveling 20+ air yards (+0.32). They are giving their opponents the 4th highest time to throw (2.92) while blitzing at the 7th highest rate in the NFL. After the Texans’ Week 10 loss to the Lions and unable to score any points in the 2nd half while constantly running into a brick wall of a defense, DeMeco Ryans was vocal in his unhappiness in the offensive play calling. On top of that, we have the Texans playing in Texas at the Cowboys with the chance to absolutely bury and embarrass Jerry Jones’ ego in his own house. I expect the Texans to be aggressive, and aggressive early while getting their star WR mixed in and profitable passes down the field.

HOU

Maybe I’m riding the high of the Lions alt line hits but I think we have a similar situation here. I was on the Lions because reports came out that Doug Pederson would be fired if the Jaguars lose and it ties to him losing the locker room. I knew the Jaguars would roll over and I also knew the Lions would run up the score. The Texans aren’t known to be explosive but with DeMeco Ryans being critical last week, I think they put an emphasis on it this week to be aggressive. Also, I think they have a bit of Ownership motivation under their asses as the Texans will be in Dallas for this game, in Jerryworld. The Texans owner, Cal McNair, has the ability to embarrass Jerry in Dallas and show dominance in the state of Texas, a huge football state. All of the owners have huge egos and it will give McNair that heavier handshake everytime they see each other for the next few years. 

Joe Mixon

I went back and forth here if I wanted to do under rushing attempts or rushing yards but I landed on yards due to Mixon and this Offensive Line’s run blocking inefficiencies. He is still a solid runner, don’t get me wrong but there is nothing there and he is not this magician at this stage of his career to make bulk plays by himself as a player like Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry would. He has run the ball 24-25 times each of the last four games and I think the Texans realize this is a mistake but it is why he has been able to get to 100+ rushing yards in five of seven games this year. After the Week 10 loss to the Lions, DeMeco Ryans was very critical of the play calling and their stubbornness for just running into a brick wall. He followed that up this week saying Stroud is going to sling the rock this week and I think they do that. This bodes right in line with the Texans’ alt lines I have posted and I think there is a very real world where the Texans just blow the piss out of the Cowboys tonight and that limits Mixon to only 12-15 rush attempts. 

CeeDee Lamb

I don’t think he’s healthy. End of story. Bodes well with everything else I’ve stated above with this being a blowout and if Lamb isn’t healthy, they aren’t going to push him. We very well may only get a quarter, maybe a half of Lamb with bad QB play and a team quitting on their coaches.

Notes

HOU -7 @ DAL – o42

Texans roll.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:

– HOU 43.2 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)

– HOU 4.6 Rush YPP (10th most)

– HOU 3.3 YACo/Att (4th most)

– HOU 39 Explosive Runs (5th most)

– DAL 7.1 Pass YPP (2nd most)

– DAL +0.06 EPA/Pass (5th most)

– DAL 71.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)

– DAL 4.7 Rush YPP (8th most)

– DAL 38 Explosive Runs (6th most)

– DAL 1.66 YBCo/Att (10th most)

– DAL +0.15 EPA/Rush (most)

– DAL +0.52 RYOE/Att (10th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Dalton Schultz (+255), Jake Ferguson (+370), KaVontae Turpin (+700), John Metchie (+750), Dameon Pierce (+750)