Thoughts
First off, I still think the Buffalo Bills are the best team in this division and I think they win it. The Jets are everyone’s darling and have now been bet up to match the Bills as the division favorite but I’m hesitant to crown them just yet. I love Miami’s offense but I don’t think it will be enough to be in contention with the Jets and Bills for the divisional favorite, I think their +200 line is a bit rich for my blood. The Patriots are an afterthought for 2024.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have won this division the last four years and I think they should be the favorites to win it again this year. I don’t think that Joe Brady is a very good offensive coordinator, I think he is bad, but there is something to be said about consistency amongst the coaching staff. Brady took over as the OC back in Week 11 of the 2023 season and the Bills went on to transform their offense to a very run-heavy approach. Once they did that, the Bills went on to seven of their final games, including the playoffs. They have revamped their WR core similarly as to how the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers both did in 2022. This puts more on Josh Allen and the defense, which is where the Bills are going to thrive. This will help them string along win after win which is why I like them to win the division this year.
New York Jets
I’m a little hesitant to crown the New York Jets as the favorite to win this division. Last year, as most of us know, Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth play of the game in Week 1, missing the entire season. The Jets ended up finishing 7-10 under QB Zach Wilson, among others, riding their defense to that record. The reason everyone has looped back to being on the Jets is because Aaron Rodgers is now perceived to be healthy. My main reserve behind that is a QB who is going to be 41 this year returning from a ruptured Achilles and playing at a high level with a horrible Offensive Coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) on the Jets staff. Every single one of the Jets eggs is in the Rodgers basket and everyone’s future is riding on his health and performance. Even in Aaron Rodgers’ last year in Green Bay, with a top-tier play-caller in Matt LaFleur, Rodgers was nothing special. Back in 2022, Rodgers led the Packers to an 8-9 record on the back of 350/542 passing for only 3,695 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He had one of the highest INT% of his career at 2.2% and one of the lowest TD% of his career at 4.8% mixed with the lowest QB Rate of his career (91.1). There are other factors at play there but we can’t overlook the fact he is 41 years old with next to no help within the coaching staff for this offense, pushing Rodgers to almost act as the play caller as well. If it all comes together, the Jets can go on a run and walk away with this division. If not, the Jets underperform again and everyone is on the chopping block. I think the answer is somewhere in the middle with the Jets winning 9-10 games, which won’t be enough for the division title.
Miami Dolphins
The only thing that has changed with the Miami Dolphins is their defense has regressed. They lost All-Pro Interior Lineman, Christian Wilkins, to the LV Raiders and have done little to replace him. They are switching Defensive Coordinators from Vic Fangio (now in PHI) for Anthony Weaver, who spent the last three seasons as the Ravens defensive line coach and run game coordinator. I think Weaver is going to be a solid DC but expect some bumps as Weaver implements his scheme for the Dolphins in what is his second stint as a Defensive Coordinator. On offense, it will be more of the season. Expect fireworks with Mike McDaniel calling the plays and a ton of speed. They’ll need to outscore opponents to keep pace with the Bills and Jets, a lot to ask for a team that had to do that last year and finished 11-6. There is no reason to think they improve upon that unless all of the chips fall perfectly.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are tanking, it is as simple as that. Now, I don’t say that in the sense that the Patriots are giving games away but more in the sense that their personnel decisions are not based on putting themselves in a position to win today as opposed to tomorrow. They have recently traded their highest-paid player, and one of the best players on their defense, Matt Judon to the Atlanta Falcons. They will have a solid defense because of their play style and coaching philosophies but it will result in a lot of losses. On offense, expect Jacoby Brissett to start the season, absorbing a ton of highs behind a poor offensive line. They will have a hard time moving the ball and lose a lot of games by scoring less than 15 points. Eventually, third-overall pick, Drake Maye, will take over the play-calling duties. At that point, we’ll pick him up in fantasy and hope he gives us some rushing but it won’t matter much outside of giving the rookie some experience as the Patriots count down the days until Week 18.
Final Rankings Prediction
- Buffalo Bills (+180) – Bet
- New York Jets (+180)
- Miami Dolphins (+200)
- New England Patriots (+2500)
