Thoughts
I think Vegas has it right in this division. There is a bit of value with the Green Bay Packers as I don’t see the Chicago Bears making the entire leap to win the division and with JJ McCarthy going down for the year, the Vikings are no longer a threat.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions broke their dry spell of making the playoffs and winning a home playoff game in 2023. They will enter 2024 with the majority of the same roster, just improved a bit. Expect this offense to be more of the same. They will be run heavy with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs splitting every other drive. Jared Goff will have an elite offensive line in front of him protecting him as he peppers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta with Jameson Williams offering some big play ability as a perimeter WR. The Lions attacked secondary in the draft, taking Alabama CB, Terrion Arnold, with the 24th overall pick, and Missouri CB, Ennis Rakestraw, with the 61st overall pick. This will help their secondary in 2024 but their philosophy remains the same, stuff the rain and force their opponent to be one-dimensional.
Green Bay Packers
If anyone is taking the division from the Lions, it is the Green Bay Packers. After starting the season a bit rocky under first-time starter Jordan Love at QB with a 2-5 record, they went on to win seven of their next 10 games. The Packers finished the regular season 9-8 and won a playoff game dominantly during the Wild Card round of the playoffs in Dallas against the Cowboys. Jordan Love turned it on and displayed traits and production that awarded him a brand new contract (4 years, $220M) and put him in discussion as being an elite franchise-building QB. On offense, the Packers didn’t do much except swap out RB Aaron Jones and RB Josh Jacobs. They also drafted OT Jordan Morgan out of Arizona which should help tie up the offensive line. On defense, they fired Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry and brought in former Boston College Head Coach, Jeff Hafley, to run their defense. I expect continued growth for Jordan Love and this team to be, at worst, a Wild Card team this year.
Chicago Bears
Your 2024 Hard Knocks representatives are likely to turn a corner in 2024, going from bottom dwellers to a legit playoff competitor. Over the last three years the Bears have combined for a 16-35 record with two last place finishes and a 3rd place finish. As many are aware, they have revamped their entire offense by replacing QB Justin Fields with 1st overall selection, QB Caleb Williams. They were aggressive and made D’Andre Swift
the first free agent signing by giving him a 3 year $24M contract and later on added journeymen TE Gerald Everett. After that, they traded a 4th-round pick for WR Keenan Allen from the LA Chargers and then drafted WR Rome Odunze 9th overall. On top of all of the personnel changes, they fired 2023 Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy and hired Shane Waldron to run their offense. The hopes are high for this offense and the only thing holding them back will be how well Caleb Williams adapts to the NFL landscape, which he seems to be adapting quickly. On defense, the Bears morphed into one of the best defenses in the NFL last year after sending a 2nd round pick to the Washington Commanders at the deadline for Edge Montez Sweat. If the Bears defense can maintain their defensive growth, this team can be scary.
Minnesota Vikings
I had high hopes for this Minnesota Vikings team as I think they have vastly improved upon their 2023 roster heading into the 2024 season. Unfortunately their 1st pick in the 2024 draft, 10th overall QB JJ McCarthy, tore his meniscus and the injury will end his 2024 season. This puts QB Sam Darnold in sole possession of the QB1 job. This team has an incredible foundation in place between Kevin O’Connell as the Head Coach running the offense and Brian Flores as the Defensive Coordinator running the defense. Last year this team had a 6-4 record before their QB woes did them in and they lost six of their last seven games, finishing with a 7-10 record. The only thing the team is missing is a QB and they had that in JJ McCarthy. With Sam Darnold under center, I’m a bit more hesitant. What is going to happen with this team is that the coaching staff will coach up the talent, leading to more wins than you would expect but it is unlikely to be enough to get them into the postseason. I like this team and where they are heading but the injury to JJ McCarthy delays things for a year. However, in 2025 keep an eye on this team as they will enter the off-season with a bonafide starter in JJ McCarthy after a year of sitting and will be a team with close to the most cap space in the NFL for free agency.
Final Rankings Prediction
- Detroit Lions (+135) – BET
- Green Bay Packers (+230)
- Chicago Bears (+275)
- Minnesota Vikings (+950)
