Thanksgiving Betting Breakdown
This is my favorite slate of games of the year. I’ll be playing VERY heavy here so be prepared. I’ll say it again, I am betting as if we are up 144u and my bankroll dictates that. Also, I have a bit of a surge because of this joyous holiday. I’ll do my best with live plays but rest assured, I will be watching every minute of all three of these games, stuffing my face with turkey. I’ll do my best to be in chat but family first on this wonderful day! 

ALSO, Below my official bets, I’ll list my unofficial bets as always but I will be peppering this section with fun bets that I’m playing. Again, fun holiday. This section will be plays that I am having fun with and I’m not stressing too hard if they lose. If you want some off norm shit, check that section. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9 
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +144.13 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets
12:30pm
– DET TT o30.5 (+100): 10u – Fanduel
– DET TT o40.5 (+520): 2u – Fanduel
– DET TT o44.5 (+1060): 3u – Fanduel
– DET TT o47.5 (+1500): 2u – Fanduel
– Caleb Williams o29.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 10u – MGM
– Caleb Williams 50+ Rushing Yards (+310): 2u – Caesars
– Caleb Williams 60+ Rushing Yards (+550): 2u – Caesars
– Caleb Williams 70+ Rushing Yards (+900): 3u – Caesars
– Caleb Williams o219.5 Passing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Jared Goff o243.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– David Montgomery o48.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel

4:30pm
– Malik Nabers to have a catch on NYG 1st Drive (+100): 5u – Fanduel
– Malik Nabers o5.5 Receptions (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Malik Nabers 8+ Receptions (+230): 1u – Caesars
– Malik Nabers 9+ Receptions (+420): 1u – Caesars
– Malik Nabers 10+ Receptions (+750): 1u – ESPNBet
– Malik Nabers 110+ Receiving Yards (+475): 1u – Caesars
– Malik Nabers 120+ Receiving Yards (+625): 1u – Caesars
– Malik Nabers 130+ Receiving Yards (+950): 1u – Caesars 
– Rico Dowdle o66.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 5u – MGM

8:20pm
– TBD

Unofficial Bets
– DET o3.5 TDs (-105) – Fanduel
– DET ML, NYG ML, GB ML Parlay (+395) – Draftkings 
– Caleb Williams 1+ TD (+480) – Fanduel
– Caleb Williams 2+ TD (+5500) – Fanduel
– Caleb Williams 1st TD (+3000) – MGM
– Shane Zylstra 1+ TD (+2200) – Fanduel
– Shane Zylstra Last TD (+10000) – Fanduel
– Jared Goff 225+ Passing Yards, Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ Rushing Yards, DJ Moore 5+ Receptions, Caleb Williams 25+ Rushing Yards SGP (+440) – Draftkings
– Caleb Williams 60+ Rushing Yards, DET ML, Malik Nabers 100+ Receiving Yards (+3200) – Draftkings
– NYG 1st Quarter ML (+132) – Fanduel
– NYG/DAL 1st Quarter o6.5 (-146) – Fanduel
– Devin Singletary 1+ TD (+450) – Fanduel
– Devin Singletary 1st TD (+2000) – Fanduel
– Chris Brooks 1+ TD (+750) – Fanduel
– Shane Zylstra 1+ TD, Caleb Williams 40+ Rushing Yards, Malik Nabers o6.5 Receptions, Brevyn Spann-Ford 1+ TD (+81383) – Fanduel

Specials
Draftkings
– David Montgomery 25+ Rush Yards in Each Half (+200)
– DJ Moore 25+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (+225)
– Malik Nabers 25+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (+150)
– Malik Nabers 50+ Receiving Yards in Each Half (+900)
– Malik Nabers 2+ Receptions in Each Quarter (+2200) 

Fanduel
– Caleb Williams 25+ Rushing Yards in each half (+850)
– Each Team to score 1+ Rushing TD & Passing TD in Each Half (CHI @ DET) (+13000) 
– Each Team to score 1+ Rushing TD & Passing TD in Each Half (NYG @ DET) (+31000) 

MGM
– Jared Goff to complete his first 5 pass attempts (+230) 
– Jalen Tolbert 1st Reception o19.5 (+350)
– 1st Drive CHI FG Attempt, DET scores Offensive TD (+1000)
– 1st Drive both CHI & DET score Offensive TD (+1200)

Breakdown
DET
This one is pretty simple. The Lions offense is a juggernaut and will be hosting the Bears on a short week. You can tell by his interviews that Matt Eberflus is on his way out and he is trying to claw for his job. Ben Johnson WANTS this Bears Head Coaching job and one of the reasons he returned to Detroit is because Chicago decided to keep Flus. He is going to make a statement here and run the score up as much as humanly possible as this is as good of a job interview you can possibly have. This will be a situation similar to what Detroit did to Dallas earlier in the year, another potential gig for Ben Johnson. 

Caleb Williams
Ever since Thomas Brown took over as the Offensive Coordinator for the Bears, he has allowed Caleb Williams to be himself and play more fluidly rather than robotically. In those two games he has run the ball 15 times for 103 yards with 33+ in both games and averaging 6.87 YPC with a +13 Rush YPA and four 10+ yard runs while hitting 15+ MPH 11 times. The Lions defense is a defense that plays a TON of man coverage, clocking in at 46.1%, the highest rate in the NFL. Due to this, they are allowing a league high 6.37 YPC on the season. They have allowed any sort of rushing QB to run for yards against them. In Week 2, Baker had 5/34/1 on the ground, Week 3 it was Kyler Murray who had 5/45/0 on the ground, Week 4 Geno Smith ran 5/38/0, Week 7 Sam Darnold 4/39/0, Week 8 Mason Rudolpoh (lol) had 4/29/1, and last week Anthony Richardson had 10/61/0. In order to basically reset Caleb Williams, Brown has designed quick passes to take the “thinking aspect out of it. If his first or immediate second read is not there, Caleb bails on the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield on the move. However, when he does this he is being told also to strongly consider the ground to keep defenses honest. It is clear the Lions schematically don’t adjust and allow opposing QBs to take advantage of this. Sure, they may spy Caleb, but he is very, very underrated as a runner and has that athleticism in him to make the first guy miss. I expect plenty of hurry up offense from the Bears and a pass happy script almost from the jump. 

Jared Goff
I said it last week and I’m sticking to my word again this week. Anytime the books give us a passing line under 250 when Goff is playing indoors, I’m in. I will blindly play this but it helps that the Bears defense as a whole hasn’t been good. The Bears are allowing the 8th most Pass YPP (6.6), 6th highest YPA (7.68),  3rd most YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (81.8), 5th most EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (+0.68), and 10th most YPG on passes 20+ air yards (44.7). Over their last 8 games their YPA jumps to 8.27 but over the last month their YPA has jumped all the way up to 9.72 as over their last four games they have allowed 943 yards on only 97 completions. We are fresh off of them allowing 261 yards to Jordan Love (W11) and 330 yards to Sam Darnold (W12). As I mentioned above, Matt Eberflus is spiraling and he may get canned after this game. Ben Johnson is out for blood and this is his chance to solidify that Head Coaching gig. What better way to impress the Bears decision makers rather than displaying how he can put a once left for dead QB (Jared Goff) on full display of elite level play right in front of their eyes on this great holiday?

David Montgomery
I can’t tell you the last time I saw a Montgomery line under 50 but here we are. They’re some concerns with Montgomery’s health but I don’t have any. This team is built different and he is the heart and soul of this offense and the ground game. This is a game against his former team and he has been vocal about it meaning more to him to play the Bears. Last year he ran for 76 and 66 yards in the two games against them. The Bears run defense is something I wanted to target anyway so it lines up perfectly for a 5u play. Since Week 8 they are allowing 151 rush yards per game and over that five game span, seven RBs have run for 50 or more yards against them. I think both Gibbs and DMont get home here but I’ll take the starter with a lower line that probably has 30 on the first drive. 

Malik Nabers
Last week the Giants got their shit kicked in by the Bucs and were down 23-0 at half with Nabers not having a single catch. After the game he was vocal about it, using the media to take shots at Brian Daboll and his play calling. Afterwards, Daboll addressed it and said he spoke privately to Nabers and agreed with him. Daboll is fighting for his job and the core of it is due to him potentially losing the locker room after they benched and then cut Daniel Jones. Due to this, Daboll is going to absolutely, unequivocally, pepper the living shit out of Malik Nabers. The first play of the game? Easy pass to Nabers. He is going to build the game plan around Nabers. It will be early, it will be often, and it won’t let up. On top of this, the first time these two teams played Malik Nabers caught 15 of his 12 targets for 115 yards. Tommy DeVito isn’t a good QB all around but on designed 1st read targets that Daboll schemes up, he is more than capable of getting the ball to Nabers so I don’t have concerns there. 

Rico Dowdle
This is purely matchup  and volume driven even though I do like Rico as a talent. Last week Rico ran the ball for 86 yards on 19 attempts, establishing himself as the alpha of this backfield. As Mike McCarthy fights to keep his job in Dallas, he is going to lean on Rico again in this one as the Cowboys are 4-point favorites. The Giants are vulnerable across the board on defense but nothing more so than their run D. Over their last five games they have been gashed to the tune of 161.2 YPG on the ground with opposing backs averaging 5.23 YPC, both the highest marks in the NFL since Week 7. Starting in Week 7 against Saquon Barkely, who ran for 176 yards on 17 carries, Najee Harris hit 114 on 19 carries, the combination of Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNicols and Chris Rodriguez combined for 114 yards on 30 carries, Chuba Hubbard ran for 153 yards on 28 carries, and then last week Bucky Irving ran for 87 yards on 12 carries. They have been unable to stop anyone on the ground and it won’t stop here. 

Notes
CHI @ DET -9.5 – o47.5 
Detroit is going to score a lot of points. Matt Eberflus may not survive this one once Detroit drops 50.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CHI
– 7.68 YPA (6th most)
– 81.8 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (3rd most)
– +0.68 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (5th most)
– 44.7 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)
– 4.89 YPC to RBs (5th most)
– 1.84 YBCo/Att (7th most)
– +0.65 RYOE/Att (6th most)

DET
– 227.5 Pass YPG (8th most)
– 5.7% Sack Rate (9th lowest)
– 77.7 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)
– 171.6 YPG to WRs (5th most)
– 1.95 YBCo/Att (6th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Rome Odunze (+295), Caleb Williams (+390), Brock Wright (+450), Tim Patrick (+475), Shane Zylstra (+1100)

NYG +4 @ DAL – o38.5
I don’t have a great feel for who wins this one but it is likely the Cowboys. If they can play like they did against the Commanders, that is their path to victory. Malik Nabers has the squeakiest of wheels. He will be targeted on the first drive with an easy catch and it won’t stop from there.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
NYG
– 7.75 YPA (9th most)
– 48.3 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– +1.98 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– 117.82 Rush YPG to RBs (3rd most)
– 5.08 YPC to RBs (most)
– 48 Explosive Runs (T2nd most)
– +0.07 EPA/Rush (2nd most)
– +1.40 RYOE/Att (most)
– 2.14 YBCo/Att (2nd most)

DAL
– 8.19 YPA (3rd most)
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T10th most)
– +0.62 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (2nd most)
– 106.18 Rush YPG to RBs (10th most)
– +0.16 EPA/Pass (most)
– 46 Explosive Runs (T4th most)
– +0.56 RYOE/Att (9th most)
– 3.17 YACo/Att (9th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Malik Nabers (+250), Luke Schoonmaker (+360), Devin Singletary (+425), Brevyn Spann-Ford (+750)

MIA @ GB -3.5 – u47

These two defenses are quietly very good this year with the Packers owning the 7th overall EPA/Play (-0.12) and Miami holding the 12th best (-0.08). I’m not too proud to say I’m afraid to play anyone from this electric Miami Dolphins offense except Achane right now. Tyreek Hill is clearly injured and isn’t being used the way he usually is. Jaylen Waddle is extremely inconsistent and impossible to bank on week in and week out. Jonnu Smith has been the most consistent part of this offense and the Packers have allowed the 13th most receiving yards to TEs (52.7) this year, so we do have an edge there. My main concern comes with Tua Tagoviola who has been dreadful in the cold. Last year in Miami’s playoff game against KC when it was around 0 degrees, Tua went 20/39 for 199 yards with a 5.10 YPA and only 1 TD and 1 pick. In 2022 he played another game under 30 degrees and he went 17/30 for 234 yards (7.8 YPA) with two scores and a pick but he had a 67 yard TD to Jaylen Waddle in that game that bolstered his stats immensely. Also, Miami still lost. 

On the Packers side, we have a slight edge with Chris Brooks and Jayden Reed. I am waiting to see how the two early games go before I post because that will determine how heavy I am with this game. Head Coach, Matt LaFleur, said this week he trusts Brooks/Wilson to take on a larger role and expects it this game specifically because of the workload Josh Jacobs has taken on of late. So this is a pure volume play against a pretty solid run defense that holds the 8th best EPA/Rush (-0.11) while holding opposing backs to the 9th best YPC mark (3.99) on the year. In terms of Jayden Reed, there is no real edge here with Miami allowing the 4th best YPT to opposing WRs (6.62) over the last month and the 3rd fewest receiving yards on the season to WRs but its Thanksgiving, right? Jayden Reed is electric and is due so, why not? Again, I’ll be gauging the two earlier games and if we are up, I’m degening a Jayden Reed ladder with Chris Brooks yards with some Jonnu Smith mixed in. If we are down, I’m hitting the under for a few units and smashing leftovers while drowning sorrows.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
MIA
– 5.3% Sack Rate (7th lowest)
– +0.53 EPA/Pass (7th most)
– +0.59 RYOE/Att (8th most)
– 3.81 YACo/Att (most)

GB
– 31.5 QB Pressure Rate (9th lowest)
– 3.12 YACo/Att (10th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Dontayvion Wicks (+260), Raheem Mostert (+380), Chris Brooks (+500), Emanuel Wilson (+500), Bo Melton (+800)