Week 10 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +32.82 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Joe Burrow o267.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Joe Burrow 300+ Passing Yards (+190): 2u – Draftkings
– Joe Burrow 325+ Passing Yards (+550): 2u – Draftkings
– Ja’Marr Chase o80.5 Receiving Yards (-123): 3u – Caesars
– Ja’Marr Chase 120+ Receiving Yards (+330): 1u – Caesars
– Mike Gesicki o47.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Mike Gesicki 100+ Receiving Yards (+750): .5u – Draftkings
– Mike Gesicki 120+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 1u – Draftkings
– Lamar Jackson o227.5 Passing Yards (-120): 5u – MGM
– Lamar Jackson 275+ Passing Yards (+285): 2u – Draftkings
– Lamar Jackson 300+ Passing Yards (+550): 1u – Draftkings
– Rashod Bateman o28.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Rashod Bateman 60+ Receiving Yards (+475): .5u – Draftkings
– Rashod Bateman 70+ Receiving Yards (+750): .5u – Draftkings
– Rashod Bateman 80+ Receiving Yards (+1200): 1u – Draftkings
Breakdown
Joe Burrow
I have been vocal and consistent on targeting the Ravens pass defense and I will continue to do so until they improve or at least show signs of improving. When these teams played in Week 5 Burrow completed 30 of 39 passes for 392 yard and five scores. I don’t expect 392 yards here but I do think 350 is obtainable if the Ravens have a double digit lead into half. Again, the Bengals are unlikely going to be able to run on the Ravens and they know that.
Ja’Marr Chase
See below for a reference on the stats of how bad the Ravens pass defense is but in Week 5 when these teams played Chase caught 10 of his 12 targets for 193 yards and two scores. Wheels up.
Mike Gesicki
Tee Higgins for the Bengals has missed four games this year including Weeks 1 and 2 and Weeks 8 and 9. In Weeks 1 and 2 without Higgins, Gesicki had a 49% route participation with a ridiculous 35% TPRR and 23% of the team’s air yards. He caught 10 of his 13 targets in those two games for 109 yards. Fast forward to Weeks 8 and 9 with Gesicki more acclimated in the offense and comfortable with Burrow and he saw a 60% route participation in those two games with again a 29% TPRR and 29% of the team’s air yards, raising his ADOT from 7.3 in Weeks 1 and 2 to 10.6 in Weeks 8 and 9. Over the last two weeks Gesicki brought in 12 of his 14 targets for 173 yards and two scores. The Ravens give up the 4th highest EPA/Pass (+.31), 3rd most passing yards per game (100.9) and 2nd most pass YPP (9.1) to the slot, which is where Gesicki bumps when Higgins is out of the lineup. Again, reference the collective stats below but the Ravens give up the 3rd most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (67.6) and three of the last four TEs to face the Ravens have had 61 or more yards with Lucas Krull and Adam Trautment being the exception.
Lamar Jackson
The Bengals defense is playing better but it is just because they are well coached. In Week 5 against this same defense Lamar Jackson went nuclear completing 26 of 42 passes for 348 yards and four scores, adding 55 yards on the ground on 12 attempts. Lamar has been off his rocker since that game with passing totals of 323 (WAS), 281 (TB), 289 (CLE), and 280 (DEN). Over that five game span he is averaging 304.2 passing YPG and as you see he has topped 280 in all five. The Bengals, on paper, are a better pass defense than run defense but over the last five games they have held teams in check on the ground while giving up efficiency in the air. I think with all his weapons and how this offense is clicking, Lamar eats again.
Rashod Bateman
Bateman is coming off a game in which he only had 25 yards but his line still consistently sitting at 28.5 is a bit of a slap in the face if I’m honest. From Weeks 5 through 7 Bateman averaged 83.33 YPG with 58 or more in each of them. In Week 8 he finished with 28, catching one of his five targets but that stat line could have looked A LOT different if I didn’t lose a 80 yard TD in the sun. Last week the Ravens absolutely dominated on all levels and Lamar only threw the ball 19 times but still targeted Bateman early and left Bateman with four targets out of this 19 attempts. The Ravens are going to be without Isaiah Likely in this one and Mark Andrews is another great target but I want the big play ability from Bate here. I think Diontae Johnson gets a few targets and I also like his 20.5 line but I need to see how the Ravens actually use him and on a short week, I expect it to be very minimal usage as it is a short week to prepare. Expect more from Diontae in Week 11 and beyond.
Unofficial Bets
– Mark Andrews o42.5 Receiving Yards
– Chase Brown o23.5 Receiving Yards
– Drew Sample Receiving (line unavailable, but I like his prospective usage)
Notes
CIN +6 @ BAL – o53
Burrow always plays the Ravens tough. I expect a lot of points from both teams here.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– CIN 4.9% Sack Rate (4th lowest)
– CIN +.30 EPA/Rush (5th most)
– CIN +.65 RYOE/Att (6th most)
– CIN 3.15 YACo/Att (9th most)
– CIN .9 Rush TDPG to RBs (7th most)
– CIN 58.4 YPG to TEs (7th most)
– BAL 280.9 Pass YPG (most)
– BAL 6.8 Pass YPP (6th most)
– BAL +.08 EPA/Pass (4th most)
– BAL 30.1% QB Pressure Rate (7th lowest)
– BAL 58.6 Pass YPG on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– BAL 95.8 Pass YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (most)
– BAL 147.7 Pass YPG on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– BAL 187.6 YPG to WRs (most)
– BAL 67.6 YPG to TEs (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Andrei Iosivas (+270), Charlie Kolar (+400), Drew Sample (+650)
