Week 14 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +123.73 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Jake Ferguson o37.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
– Joe Burrow o270.5 Passing Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
Unofficial Bets
– Ja’Marr Chase o79.5 Receiving Yards: Too inconsistent and boom/bust to play so I’m sticking with just Burrow.
– Rico Dowdle o67.5 Rushing Yards: Bengals run defense has played well lately and a lot of Dowdle’s rushing production has come late in games the last couple of weeks with the Cowboys winning. They prefer to throw it.
– CeeDee Lamb o69.5 Receiving Yards: I’m not sure how healthy Lamb is, too volatile.
Breakdown
Jake Ferguson
Ferguson is finally back after missing the last couple of games and is plenty rested. This week he gets a prime matchup, facing the Bengals who arguably take over as the worst team in the NFL against TEs. Since Week 5, they have allowed the most YPG to them, allowing 83.5 per game. Over that 8 game span, every single opponent has had at least one TE has eclipse 30 or more receiving yards and overall nine TEs have hit 42 yards or more. The last time a TE didn’t hit at least 45 yards in a game was back in Week 6 when Theo Johnson only had 30 yards on three receptions. The Bengals enter this game in Dallas as 5.5 favorites and this game carries a 49.5 point total. We have every reason to believe the Cowboys will be throwing at a high clip against the 3rd worst EPA/Pass (+0.05) defense in the NFL.
Joe Burrow
Since Week 6, the Cowboys have allowed the 3rd highest YPA (8.54) to opposing QBs. Burrow should have no issue shredding this defense who also sports the 4th worst EPA/Pass on passes with 11-20 air yards (+0.58). Their defense has stood up the last couple of weeks, only folding on one big play here in there. They held the Giants to only 55 yards rushing on 16 carries, the Commanders to 57 yards rushing on 17 carries, the Texans 111 yards on 21 carries (Mixon had a 40 yard untouched TD run), and the Eagles to 130 yards rushing on 30 carries and so on. You mix this with how poorly the Bengals defense is playing, and we have our fixings of a 49.5 point total. Due to this, Burrow has an increased chance of pushing out another one of his ceiling games like he has the last three games. Over the last three games he is on a torrid pace, averaging 364.3 YPG with at least 309 in all of them. He has a full arsenal at his disposal with Tee Higgins fully healthy and back in the fold which is one of the reasons this explosion is forming through the passing game.
Notes
CIN @ DAL +5.5 – o49.5
The Bengals have played nothing but close games this year and I think we could see the Cowboys pull off an upset here if Cooper Rush shows up to play, which he should.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CIN
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (T3rd most)
– 250.92 Pass YPG (6th most)
– 4.5% Sack Rate (2nd lowest)
– 84.4 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (3rd most)
– +0.60 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (3rd most)
– 156.8 YPG to WRs (9th most)
– 65.25 YPG to TEs (4th most)
– 9.06 YPT to TEs (2nd most)
– +0.02 EPA/Rush (5th most)
– 3.19 YACo/Att (T6th most)
– +0.76 RYOE/Att (2nd most)
DAL
– +0.58 EPA/Pass on passes 11-20 air yards (4th most)
– 7.95 YPA (3rd most)
– 8.22 YPT to WRs (10th most)
– +0.17 EPA/Rush (most)
– 48 Explosive Runs (T5th most)
– +0.59 RYOE/Att (8th most)
– 1.77 YBCo/Att (8th most)
– 3.16 YACo/Att (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jake Ferguson (+275), Andrei Iosivas (+450)
