Week 17 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +107.67 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– DJ Moore o5.5 Receptions (-110): 5u – Fanatics
– Zach Charbonnet 65+ Rushing Yards (-125): 3u – ESPNBet
– Jaxon Smith-Njigba o70.5 Receiving Yards (-125): 3u – Fanatics
– AJ Barner 1+ TD (+1000): 1u – Draftkings
Unofficial Bets
– AJ Barner o11.5 Receiving Yards: See below
– Noah Fant o30.5 Receiving Yards: Just don’t trust the consistency but the matchup is there.
Breakdown
DJ Moore
Since Thomas Brown took over for the Bears on offense, he has absolutely peppered DJ Moore with layup passes. He has been reduced to a 6.2 ADOT on a 93.8% Route Participation and still holds a 26.2% target share. He has a whopping 33.6% 1st read rate because of this and 7.02 YAC/Rec. He has at least 6 receptions in every one of these six games as well with reception counts of 7, 7, 8, 6, 8, and 7.
Zach Charbonnet
The Bears run defense is straight up bad. See below for specific stats but they have allowed a RB to top 65 or more rushing yards in all but one game this year and to get to that game we have to go all the way back to Week 2 when they held Joe Mixon to 9/25 rushing and Cam Akers 7/32 in the same game. Charbonnet will get the start this week with Kenneth Walker out, which will be the 5th time this season. In the 4 games that Walker has missed, Charbs has accrued 317 rushing yards, averaging 79.3 YPC and 15.5 rushes a game. He has averaged 5.11 YPC with a 8.1% explosive run rate. He has a 24% missed for tackle rate per attempt and is averaging 2.9 YAC/Att. There is no reason Charbonnet shouldn’t get north of 12-15 carries again in this one and against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, he should have success.
Jaxon Smith-Njiba
Since Week 8 JSN has been on a tear, hitting 69 or more receiving yards in every single game. Over this 8 game span he has a 26.2% target share with 41.4% of the team’s air yards (10.5 ADOT) and a 87.1% route participation. He is averaging 96.3 YPG, 2.92 YPT, and a 31.3% 1st read rate. Since Week 11 (6 games), the Bears have allowed the most YPT to opposing WRs (10.43) and with JSN averaging 8.6 TPG, this play really is a no brainer. JSN’s yards should be closer to 80 than 70.
AJ Barner
This is more or less a dart throw. The coaching staff was praising AJ Barner this week with his approach and how hard he practices and all that coach speak jazz. The Bears are allowing the 6th most YPG to TEs (60.6) and 8.74 YPT to TEs (2nd) so we could easily take a stab at Barner’s 11.5 receiving line but I’m concerned they use Fant between the 20s and I’m not overly excited about that usage from the Seahawks offense overall. So I’d rather take a stab at the long shot and see if we can’t get Barner to call in the box.
Notes
SEA -4.5 @ CHI – u42.5
This defense will just be too complex and confusing for Thomas Brown and Caleb Williams to figure out on a short week.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
SEA
– 143 YPG on passes <10 air yards (2nd most)
– 106.8 YPG to RBs (8th most)
– 4.71 YPC to RBs (6th most)
– +0.53 RYOE/Att (T9th most)
– 3.48 YACo/Att (2nd most)
CHI
– 49.4 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– +0.63 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (5th most)
– 74.2 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (10th most)
– 239.6 Pass YPG (10th most)
– 7.9 YPA (T2nd most)
– 8.91 YPT to WRs (3rd most)
– 60.6 YPG to TEs (6th most)
– 8.74 YPT to TEs (2nd most)
– 117.2 YPG to RBs (2nd most)
– 55 explosive runs (T8th most)
– 4.84 YPC to RBs (4th most)
– 3.17 YACo/Att (T9th most)
– +0.55 RYOE/Att (8th most)
– -0.02 EPA/Rush (T10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Roschon Johnson (+350), AJ Barner (+1000)
