Week 18 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’m keeping this short and simple this week. Majority of these plays are quite simple and focused around incentives or season ending narratives. Check at the bottom for a compilation for the marks some of these players need to hit.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +106.29 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
Saturday
– BAL -17.5 (-110): 5u – Fanduel
– Ja’Marr Chase o92.5 Receiving Yards (-114): 5u – Draftkings
– Ja’Marr Chase 155+ Receiving Yards (+650): 1u – Fanatics
– Ja’Marr Chase 170+ Receiving Yards (+1000): su – Fanatics
Sunday
1pm
– Mike Evans o91.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 10u – Draftkings
– Malik Nabers o6.5 Receptions (+110): 5u – Draftkings
4pm
– Mike Evans o91.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 10u – Draftkings
– Malik Nabers o6.5 Receptions (+110): 5u – Draftkings
– DK Metcalf o52.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 5u – Draftkings
– Kyler Murray o28.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – MGM
– Kyler Murray 50+ Rushing Yards (+300): 3u – Draftkings
– Kyler Murray 70+ Rushing Yards (+750): 1u – Draftkings
– Kyler Murray 1+ TD (+175): 2u – Draftkings
– Jauan Jennings o77.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Jakobi Meyers o65.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Jakobi Meyers 90+ Receiving Yards (+210): 2u – Draftkings
8pm
– TBD
Unofficial Bets
– Tyler Allgeier o32.5 Rushing Yards: I’ll be hitting this live with a ladder. Falcons will smash the Panthers on the ground and we have a drive or two with Bijan to lower the Allgeier line a few yards and boost his alts up.
– Jonathan Taylor o83.5 Rushing Yards: Joe Flacco under center, Taylor should shred the Jaguars run defense.
– Brian Thomas Jr. o80.5 Receiving Yards: Colts pass defense isn’t good and they’re going to continue to pepper BTJ.
– Davante Adams 1+ TD: Rodgers wants to throw his 500th TD to Adams. I’m just not paying up for it.
– Audric Estime o30.5 Rushing Yards: A line I’ll be eying right before the 4pm games kick off. I even like laddering him up to 80+ at +1100 odds on DK but I don’t want too much on our plate this week without equity built up. Broncos big favorites and with that I expect Estime to get a lot of between the tackles, grind it out workload.
– Courtland Sutton o73.5 Receiving Yards: He needs 82 to hit a $500,000 bonus but I don’t think Sean Payton cares much about that and wants to win. He may get there organically with the Chiefs playing their backups but I don’t see a ton of value in this play.
– Brock Bowers o7.5 Receptions: Waiting to see how many catches Nabers gets but I prefer to just stick with Meyers straight up instead of trying to double dip if Nabers lets us down.
– Joshua Dobbs o28.5 Rushing Yards: Shanahan said Dobbs is getting the nod because of their OL issues and Dobbs is more mobile. I expect him to have a lot of 1 read looks and bailing on the pocket and with his rushing abilities, he shouldn’t have a problem topping 30 rushing yards. I’ll be adding this one to official depending how we’re looking entering the 4pm window.
Breakdown
BAL
The Ravens aren’t going to fuck around here and the Browns want no business winning this game. The Browns still have a chance at a top 2 pick, even the top overall pick if the chips fall right for them, even though that’s unlikely. The Ravens need a win to secure the division and historically in these types of matchups, the Ravens put their foot on the opponents throats and run the score up so they can rest in the 4th quarter. I’d be shocked if the Ravens don’t drop 35+ in this one while the Browns are trotting out guys like Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Ja’Marr Chase
The Bengals have all but been eliminated from the playoffs as they will need the Denver Broncos (10-point favorites) to lose at home to the Chiefs backups. With that, the WR and QB combo between Chase and Burrow were asked about the triple crown and it means something to them. Chase leads the NFL in all three categories of Receptions, Receiving Yards, and Receiving TDs. With this being an earlier game, Chase will have to ball out to secure as much of a lead as possible. His former college teammate, Justin Jefferson, is on his heels for his receiving yards mark as he only leads JJ by 133 yards. The Vikings play the atrocious Lions secondary this week so JJ topping 200+ yards is well within the realm of possibilities. With that, Chase has an 8 reception lead on Amon-Ra St. Brown, another WR who has a matchup in a game that should be pushed and a 12+ reception game is also in the realm of possibilities for Chase. Point being, the Bengals are going to pepper the living shit out of Chase and get him in favorable spots to get chunk yards and get him as many yards as possible before the game ends.
Mike Evans
Probably the most talked about mark this week is Mike Evans approaching 1,000 yards and trying to hit that mark for the 11th straight (FUCKING INSANE) time in his career, which is as many seasons as he has played. The Bucs need a win, the Saints defense is garbage, and you have both Evans QB (Baker Mayfield) and his Offensive Coordinator (Liam Coen) making it known they all know Evans is chasing that goal. They all want it for him. Expect Evans to be peppered early and often.
Malik Nabers
Nabers is your prototypical diva WR who has an elite skill set and earns the right to be vocal. With that, he needs only two receptions to break the all time rookie WR reception mark in a season. The play comes in to get over 6.5 receptions with the fact Brock Bowers broke that record last week and Nabers is chasing Bowers for most receptions by a rookie in NFL history. Nabers won’t know how many receptions he needs to be in contention for this mark as Brock Bowers and the LV Raiders play at 4pm, with this game being well over before then so Nabers will need to compile as many receptions as he can.his Giants team has almost NOTHING to speak for this season except the emergence of Malik Nabers as an elite stud WR. If Daboll is indeed returning next year, he is going to want to end on a good note with Nabers and continue to pepper him. It also helps with the fact Nabers is facing the Eagles backups mostly and has topped 7 or more receptions in each of his last three games. After Nabers sets a mark of 8+ for Bowers to hit, we’ll turn our attention to Bowers to hit his mark over 7.5 receptions because Bowers and the Raiders are in the same boat as Nabers and the Giants.
DK Metcalf
The Seahawks are playing the Rams backups this week. Geno Smith needs 186 passing yards to hit a $2,000,000 bonus but DK Metcalf needs 61 receiving yards to hit 1,000 yards which would be the third season in a row to hit that mark. Head Coach, Mike Macdonald, has already said that with their season being over, they want to get these guys their marks if it is plausible (HINT: it is).
Kyler Murray
He needs 50 rushing yards and a 1 TD to hit a $750,000 bonus for each. I think he gets both.
Jauan Jennings
Same as DK Metcalf above. Jennings needs 77 receiving yards to hit 1,000 and Kyle Shanahan said the same thing with Jennings.
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers needs 96 yards to get to 100. Antonio Pierce has praised Meyers all season long and loves the guy. Through all of the Adams bullshit he wouldn’t stop talking up Meyers and Meyers has only gone out and balled out. He has 9 or more targets in all but 3 games since Week 3.
Incentives
QB
– Joe Burrow needs 359 Passing Yards ot hit 5,000
– Geno Smith needs 186 Passing Yards for a $2,000,000 bonus
– Geno Smith needs 1 Win for a $2,000,000 bonus
– Kyler Murray needs 50 Rushing Yards & 1 Rushing TD for a $750,000 bonus
RB
– Tony Pollard needs 83 Rushing Yards for a $250,000 bonus
– Tony Pollard needs 2 TDs for a $250,000 bonus.
– D’Andre Swift needs 106 Rushing Yards to hit 1,000
– JK Dobbins needs 58 Rushing Yards for a $150,000 bonus
WR
– George Pickens needs 100 Receiving Yards to hit 1,000
– Terry McLaurin needs 1 TD to set the Washington Commanders record
– DJ Moore needs 120 Receiving Yards to hit 1,000
– Calvin Ridley needs 59 Receiving Yards to hit 1,000
– DeAndre Hopkins needs 9 Receptions to hit a $250,000 bonus
– DeAndre Hopkins needs 140 Receiving Yards for a $250,000 bonus
– DeAndre Hopkins needs 1 TD for a $500,000 bonus
– Courtland Sutton needs 82 Receiving Yards for a $500,000 bonus
– Tyreek Hill needs 61 Receiving Yards to hit 1,000
– Jakobi Meyers needs 96 Receiving yards to hit 1,000
TE
– Zach Ertz needs 9 Receptions for a $250,000 bonus
– Zach Ertz needs 90 Receiving yards for a $250,000 bonus
– Zach Ertz needs 2 TDs for a $250,000 bonus
– Brock Bowers is chasing to keep the rookie Reception record from Nabers
– Austin Hooper needs 4 Receptions to hit a $125,000 bonus
