Week 3 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sanaynay9
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sanaynay9
Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log:Betting Results (2024)
Bets
1pm
– Bo Nix o185.5 (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Josh Jacobs o77.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 3u – Draftkings
4pm
– De’Von Achane o23.5 Receiving Yards (-125): 5u – MGM
– De’Von Achane 50+ Receiving Yards (+325): 1u – Caesars
– De’Von Achane 60+ Receiving Yards (+650): 1u – Caesars
– De’Von Achane 70+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 2u – Caesars
– Dak Prescott o251.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Derrick Henry o66.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Brock Bowers o44.5 Receiving Yards (-135): 3u – Draftkings
– Kyle Juszcyk o16.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 2u – MGM
8pm
– Kyle Pitts o38.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
ALT Parlay (+24480): 1u – Draftkings
– Bo Nix 200+ Passing Yards
– De’Von Achane 50+ Receiving Yards
– Dak Prescott 300+ Passing Yards
– Jordan Mason 100+ Rushing Yards
– Josh Jacobs 100+ Rushing Yards
Breakdown
1pm
Bo Nix
Okay, hear me out. We saw a little bit of improvement from Bo Nix in Week 2 both on the field and in the stat sheet. Now I know that isn’t hard to do given his Week 1 performance was historically bad but the books haven’t adjusted. In Week 2 Bo Nix put up a half decent (at least average) YPA of 7 against one of the best (maybe the best) defense in the NFL in the Pittsburgh Steelers on 35 pass attempts (246 yards). He still posted a -12.7 EPA (up from -23 in Week 1) so I mean I’m not saying Nix is exactly playing great. But this line is low at 185.5 and it is low enough to the point it gives us a ladder opportunity due to matchup. Schematically we’ve attacked the Buccaneers frequently because of their play style, blitz and lead the back end cover for a few seconds with the expectation of getting home to the QB while playing stout run defense. Due to this the Bucs consistently rank towards the top of the NFL in pass yards allowed per game and this year is no different. So far they have allowed the 5th most passing yards per game (242.5) and allowed Jayden Daniels throw for 184 yards in his first NFL game and Jared Goff throw for 307 in Week 2. Where teams usually attack the Bucs is within the first 10 yards of the line of scrimmage due to their blitzing methods, using quick passes to get the ball out which is right up the alley for the Broncos and what they want to do on offense. They have allowed the most yards per game (178.5) in the NFL on passes in that 0-10 range and 6.1 yards per play. Bo Nix currently ranks 12th in the NFL with 252 passing yards in that 0-10 range on the season. You mix this in with the Bucs offense absolutely humming, putting up 28.5 points per game. I expect the Broncos to be playing from behind a lot in this one and if they aren’t, it is because Bo Nix found rhythm early and is already balling out. There is next to no chance the Broncos can establish a running game in this one against what is usually one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Josh Jacobs
I’ll take his 77.5 rushing yards regardless if Jordan Love plays or not. The books seem confident that Malik Willis is getting the start and every reputable social media injury analyst agrees that Week 4 is a more viable time frame for Love to return. Even if Love is back, the Packers aren’t going to just sling the ball around with him not 100% and Jacobs will likely see another volume game of 20+ carries. If Malik Willis is starting we very well could get a 30+ attempt game from Jacobs as they try and grind this game out with Jacobs and Wilson in the backfield.
4pm
De’Von Achane
This is a bet on De’Von Achane and how the Miami Dolphins use him mixed with Thompson being a check down artist. Once Thompson entered the game for an injured Tua in Week 2, he targeted Achane 4 times for 32 yards in the short time he played which was only 20 minutes of game time. Even before that in the first 40 minutes of the game Achane had caught three passes for 44 yards making him seven for seven on his targets with 69 receiving yards. In Week 1 he was also targeted seven times, catching all seven of them for 76 yards and a score. In both games Achane achieved a +7.4 EPA and +3.3 EPA per reception with a total of 46 YAC over expected. I know he is a RB and takes dump offs and screens but that is also a point I’m driving home as Head Coach and play caller Mike McDaniel sets him up in situations to succeed as he has an average of 6.7 yards of separation per target. He is electric and averaging 10.4 yards per reception as a RB, don’t overthink it. Achane will fully be relied upon as the RB1 of this backfield and have designed passes his way consistently throughout the game to get him in space and succeed and we have the dump off artist in Skylar Thompson in our back pocket.
Dak Prescott
This is a perfect mixture for Dak Prescott and this passing offense to get straight in Week 3 at home. The Ravens pass defense has been one of the worst in the NFL to date, allowing 257 yards per game, a +.06 EPA per pass (9th), the 7th most pass yards per play (7), the 3rd most pass yards per game (84.5) intermediate (10-20) and the 6th most deep (20+) at 60.5 yards per game. They just let Gardner Minshew throw for 276 passing yards (7.3 YPA) even though he had a -.14 EPA with an enormous 2.96 seconds on average to throw per attempt. Overall, the Ravens are 3rd in the NFL with taking 3.05 seconds per play before they get pressure. They are only getting pressure on 27.4% of the drop backs and now the Ravens defense has to travel to Dallas to try and stop the elite passing attack of the Dallas Cowboys. On top of this, the Cowboys are extremely unlikely to have success on the ground with the Ravens sporting the lowest yards per play (2.7) allowed on the ground so far this year and have the 7th best EPA per rush at -.22 allowed. While Dak Prescott is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt through two games so far, he averaged 7.5 in Week 2 against the Saints (293 yards) and in his career he has never been below a 7.3 YPA, topping 7.7 three times. I fully expect that number to rise up and it is going to happen here. Another reason is due to the Ravens offense against the Cowboys defense. Simply put, the Cowboys defense is allowing +.03 EPA per play which is 7th in the NFL and the worst run defense in regards to EPA per rush at +.25. This game is going to be electric and I’ll be monitoring it live to see if we can get some off the rails alt’d lines like last week even though they didn’t pan out.
Derrick Henry
The Ravens enter this game in Dallas favored (albeit only 1 point) and the Cowboys defense leaves a lot to be desired so it is very unlikely they pull away and take gameflow from Henry. Henry got 18 carries last week in a positive script and finally broke free, accruing 84 yards rushing, ending on 4.7 YPC with a score and had 16 yards over expected, looking like his old self with 54 yards total after contact. This is the Henry the Ravens brought in as he had two runs over 10+ yards and broke 15+ MPH four times. The Cowboys are an ELITE matchup as they enter this game with a league worst +.25 EPA/Rush allowed to opposing backs while allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game (12th most) and 4.9 rush yards per play which is 9th worst in the NFL. On top of that, they are allowing the 7th most yards after contact per attempt (3.74) which is right up the alley of Henry’s game. This is all while running with a stacked box 29.3% of the time which has been the 3rd highest in the NFL so far.
Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers is a fucking stud and to be honest you can blindly play him here at this line because 44.5 is ridiculous given he has seen 8+ targets in each of his first two NFL games and he has accrued receiving yardage totals of 58 and 98 yards in those two games with a +10.3 Receiving EPA and an absurd 2.9 yards per route run. On top of Bowers being a beast flat out, the Panthers have given up the 2nd most receiving yards to Tight Ends so far this year even though they’ve played the Saints (Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau) and the Chargers (Hayden Hurst and Will Dissley) in their two games played. Even though those two teams have two of the worst TE rooms in the NFL, they decided to target their TEs a total of 11 times in those games which is the 2nd most times a team has been targeted by the position. Bowers is set up to eat once again this week and I think the Panthers can win this game so script shouldn’t be an issue.
Kyle Juszcyk
This is a bet on volume and Kyle Shanahan due to the 49ers likely being without three of their star players in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle with Brandon Aiyuk (ironic) being the only healthy one. They are going to need to rely heavily on the supporting cast which includes Jordan Mason, Juwan Jennings, and Kyle Juszcyk. So far in the two games the 49ers have played Juice has seen eight targets, catching five of them for 59 yards with at least 19 in each game, averaging 11.8 yards per reception. This is another situation that doesn’t matter much about the opponent but overall the Rams have the worst defense in the NFL in terms of EPA allowed per Play at +.24. I fully expect a heavy dose of Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason, Juwan Jennings, and Kyle Juszcyk in this game and I think the volume will be concentrated on those four players.
8pm
Kyle Pitts
You can shoot me if you want but I’m going right back to Pitts for the third week in a row even though he has disappointed us to date. Week 1 I chalked up to Kirk getting his feet under him and it took until the 2nd half for Kirk to look himself but he finally did. By that point the game plan was far gone. This week the Falcons host the Chiefs in what is going to be a game the Falcons need to bring their A-game to pull off an upset. As I mentioned last week I’ll be targeting this defense all year long with Bolton being an absolute liability in coverage and I suspect Zac Robinson is sharp enough to figure that out. So far this year the Chiefs were destroyed by Isaiah Likely in Week 1 to the tune of nine receptions for 111 yards and a score on 12 targets in smoked by Mike Gesicki in Week 2 with him snagging seven of his nine targets for 81 yards. Behind Gesicki in Week 2 we even saw rookie Erick All snag all four of his targets for 32 yards and Drew Sample pull in all three of his targets for 28 yards. If Zac Taylor is wise enough to target Bolton, Robinson fucking better scheme up Pitts this week. I’m letting analysis drive this one and letting Weeks 1 and 2 roll off my shoulder on Sunday Night.
ALT Parlay Options
– Bo Nix up to 200+ Passing Yards
– Josh Jacobs 100+ Rushing Yards
– Tank Dell 100+ Receiving Yards (Should be his turn this week, matchup is there)
– Dak Prescott up to 350+ (I prefer this live)
– De’Von Achane up to 120+ Rushing Yards
– CeeDee Lamb up to 120+ Receiving Yards
– Jalen Tolbert 70+ Receiving Yards
– Rashod Bateman 60+ Receiving Yards
– Jordan Mason 120+ Rushing Yards
– Ja’Marr Chase 120+ Receiving Yards (I know its MNF but he is going to EAT)
Notes
LAC +1.5 @ PIT – u36
This is going to be a slow, run heavy game, low scoring game. Chargers lines aren’t up but I’m not attacking either defense here.
– Justin Fields 1+ Interception: Chargers defense has been elite. If Fields has to throw it’ll be a tough test for him. I like the + odds.
TD Scorers: Justin Fields (+245), Ladd McConkey (+360), LAC DST (+360), Cordarrelle Patterson (+1200)
HOU @ MIN +2 – u46
This Minnesota defense is STOUT. Houston’s offense looks like it is having some growing pains, I think Brian Flores confuses Stroud enough to help Minnesota cover, or even win.
– Cam Akers u62.5 Rushing Yards: 63 yards is rich for someone likely in a split share.
– Tank Dell o52.5 Receiving Yards: Matchup is there for both Nico and Dell. This week it’s Dell’s turn but I have nothing to back up that hunch so it goes under “unofficial” for now. You can alt him up if you want to build a fuck it parlay.
TD Scorers: Justin Jefferson (-105), Joe Mixon/Cam Akers (-105), Stefon Diggs (+160), Tank Dell (+180), HOU DST (+425)
CHI @ IND -1.5 – u44
I don’t think a short week is enough to fix the offensive issues the Bears are experiencing, even if the Colts defense is bad. The Bears don’t have the run game to exploit it.
– D’Andre Swift u57.5 Rushing Yards: Colts have the 10th best EPA/Rush despite giving up a league high 237 rush yards per game. Its mainly from abnormal volume (93) against them. It’ll level out and Swift isn’t a good rusher of the football.
– u44: I can’t bet on the Bears offense to put up points until I see it. Waldron is lost as a play caller right now.
TD Scorers: Jonathan Taylor (-130), Anthony Richardson (+120), Rome Odunze (+340), Cole Kmet (+425), IND DST (+450), CHI DST (+550), Gerald Evertt (+550)
PHI @ NO -2.5 – o49
I’d love to say the Eagles win this game but it is increasingly hard to bet on the Eagles and against the Saints. We’ll learn more in this game about both teams.
– Alvin Kamara o67.5 Rushing Yards: Taysom Hill is questionable and the Eagles have the 4th worst EPA/Rush (+.15) against them.
– Jahan Dotson u23.5 Receiving Yards: He sucks. They don’t throw him the ball.
TD Scorers: Alvin Kamara (-210), Saquon Barkley (-165), Chris Olave (+125), Dallas Goedert (+195), Johnny Wilson (+700), Grant Calcaterra (+700),
NYG +6.5 @ CLE – u38.5
The Browns offense isn’t good enough to pull away from the Giants. Also, the Giants offense showed signs of life in Week 2.
– Malik Nabers o65.5 Receiving Yards: I’d play him every week and this Browns defense isn’t the same that we’re used too. This was close to being an official play.
– D’Onta Foreman o42.5 Rushing Yards: Stefanski loves him and his style, wants to keep him involved as the lead with Ford spelling. Giants 7th worst with a +.07 EPA/Rush allowed so far. Need to see it again from Foreman before I bet it officially.
TD Scorers: Devin Singletary (+155), Malik Nabers (+185), Jordan Akins (+230), CLE DST (+350), Theo Johnson (+600)
GB +2 @ TEN – o37.5
There is no way I’ll put money on Will Levis until he proves he can be a starting QB in the NFL. Green Bay is too well coached.
– DeAndre Hopkins o30.5 Receiving Yards: He should be back to full go in this one, 31 yards is too low for someone this talented regardless of matchup.
TD Scorers: Josh Jacobs (-135), Tyjae Spears (+300), Christian Watson (+350), Romeo Doubs (+400), GB DST (+400), Tucker Kraft (+600), Luke Musgrave (+750)
DEN @ TB -6.5 – o39.5
I can’t bet against the Bucs right now. I think Bo Nix puts up some stats in this one though against a great run defense and poor rush defense.
– Mike Evans u65.5 Receiving Yards: I’m not betting against Evans but if you ever were, this is the spot. He will have Surtain traveling on him.
– Courtland Sutton o41.5: Same reason I’m on Nix.
TD Scorers: Rachaad White (-125), Cortland Sutton (+265), Cade Otton (330), Bo Nix (+380)
MIA +4.5 @ SEA – o41.5
Miami is going to be fine with Thompson, I think they cover and score more than people think.
– De’Von Achane o73.5 Rushing Yards: I laddered the receiving yards for odds and value. I think he can break a 50+ yard rush or reception on any play. He saw a 70% rush share (21) and 18% target share (7) in Week 2 with Mostert out.
– Tyreek Hill o61.5 Receiving Yards: This line is insanely low for a player of Tyreek’s calibur. I’m buying the growth from Skylar Thompson.
– Jaxon Smith-Njigba o50.5 Receiving Yards: Too low for a guy who just saw 16 targets and is facing the 4th worst pass offense in terms of EPA/Pass (+.21). Miami is only allowed 139 passing yards per game so I’m hesitant to dive head first into a 2 game sample size of EPA against the Jaguars and Bills.
TD Scorers: De’Von Achane (+120), Tyreek Hill (+190), Noah Fant (+400), Jonnu Smith (+425)
CAR +5 @ LV – o40
– Zamir White o58.5 Rushing Yards: Antonio Pierce still doesn’t shut the fuck up about giving Zamir 20+ carries and says the OL needs to block better. Anyway, the Panthers run D has a better EPA/Rush than expected (+.03) which is 20th in the NFL and not dead last like many think. I want to bet this but it just doesn’t seem wise. Also, I think Carolina covers the +5 and could even pull off an upset with Dalton.
– Adam Thielen o3.5 Receptions: I wanted to bet this horribly bad but it just didn’t make the cut. Like I mentioned in the Waiver Wire article this week, the only start Dalton had last year he targeted Thielen 14 times with Thielen catching 11 of them. Diontae was there last year so I’d rather play this unofficially for now. There is just too much I love for this 4pm slate.
TD Scorers: Chuba Hubbard (+160), Brock Bowers (+210), Adam Thielen (+290), Tre Tucker (+425)
SF @ LAR +7 – o44.5
The Rams always play the 49ers tough, I’ll take the home divisional foe to cover but SF to win.
– Jordan Mason o94.5 Rushing Yards: When you see a line like this, I usually smash it. This is a BOLD line and they usually still undercut it. Mason may have 25+ carries against a horrible Rams defense.
– Jordan Whittington o33.5 Receiving Yards: I expected more 12-Personnel from the Rams but Davis Allen was ruled out. If they run 11-Personnel at a high rate again, expect Whittington to take a lot of slot snaps.
– Kyren Williams o67.5 Rushing Yards: I expect the Rams to run it, or at least try to. They get 3 OL back in this one. 49ers have the 21st ranked EPA/Rush (+.03).
TD Scorers: Jordan Mason (-180), Kyren Williams (-105), Brandon Aiyuk (+105), Colby Parkinson (+285), Kyle Juszcyk (+400), Chris Conley (+550), Davis Allen (+900),
BAL -1 @ DAL – o48.5
This is probably the most electric game of the slate. Two very good offenses that matchup perfectly against two poor defenses.
– CeeDee Lamb o83.5 Receiving Yards: I wanted to play this but went to Dak instead.
– Jalen Tolbert o29.5 Receiving Yards: Same reason as Lamb. I also think if Tolbert hits, he hits for 50+ so I’d rather parlay his alt.
– Rashod Bateman o 27.5 Receiving Yards: Hunch he breaks a long one on this game. I’d rather alt it like Tolbert because if he does, you’ll wish you did. Dallas is 22nd in the NFL with a +.25 EPA/Pass allowed to perimeter WRs so far this year with 99.5 yards per game allowed to the outside.
– Mark Andrews 1+ TD: He’s due and the game total is 48.5. Nothing more than that.
TD Scorers: Derrick Henry (-170), CeeDee Lamb (-110), Mark Andrews (+165), Jake Ferguson (+170), Isaiah Likely (+285), Rashod Bateman (+295), Jalen Tolbert (+350), KaVontae Turpin (+850)
DET @ ARI +3 – u51.5
The Lions have been disappointing so far this year and the Cardinals have been a predictable surprise. I think the Cards have a chance to spoil this game so I’ll take the points.
– Trey McBride o53.5 Receiving Yards: Lions have given up the 3rd most receiving yards to TEs to date facing the Rams (Parkinson) and Bucs (Otton). I think McBride gets in the box with an actual reception this time.
– Sam LaPorta o44.5 Receiving Yards: LaPorta week. Cardinals have given up the 6th most receiving yards to opposing TEs and have played the Bills and Rams. Ben Johnson himself said their weapons will take turns balling out and this lines up for a LaPorta week. I think he gets in the box as well.
TD Scorers: David Montgomery/Jahmir Gibbs (-130), Sam LaPorta (+155), Trey McBride (+160), Jameson Williams (+165)
KC @ ATL +3.5 – u46.5
I think the Falcons cover in a lower scoring game than we think. We likely see both TEs play well.
– Kirk Cousins o231.5 Passing Yards: Should have script in his favor and the Chiefs have allowed the 2nd most passing yards per game (256.5) behind only the Ravens.
– Travis Kelce o48.5 Receiving Yards: Falcons have given up the 7th most yards inline (33/gm) and prime time is when Kelce usually shines. He likely gets in the box too but I have nothing more than a hunch to back that up so unofficial it goes.
TD Scorers: Bijan Robinson (-125), Carson Steele (+110), Travis Kelce (+130), Tyler Allgeier (+340)
