Week 7 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Betting log: Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Baker Mayfield o253.5 Passing Yards (-113): 10u – Fanduel
– Baker Mayfield 300+ Passing Yards (+300): 2u – Draftkings
– Baker Mayfield 325+ Passing Yards (+550): 5u – Draftkings
– Lamar Jackson o228.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – Fanduel
– JK Dobbins o76.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
Breakdown
BAL @ TB
There is going to be A LOT of offense in this game. The Baltimore Ravens sport one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the 2nd most passing yards per game (275.7), the 6th most passing yards per play (6.9), the 6th highest EPA/Pass (+.08), the 5th most passing yards on plays with 20+ air yards per game (59), the most passing yards on passes between 11-20 air yards per game (94.8), the 7th most on passes under 10 air yards per game (144.3), and the 5th most pass TDs (11). Given this, they don’t really discriminate and they allow all receiving positions to generate plenty of yardage against them, allowing the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing WRs per game (187) and the most receiving yards to opposing TEs per game (72.7). Baker Mayfield is going to throw for 400 here with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans being my main targets but I think the Bucs have some tricks up their sleeve with some ancillary pieces.
The Bucs defense is just as bad, allowing the 5th most passing yards per game (252.3) with the 4th most coming from TEs (57) and 8th most from WRs (163.8). I won’t bore you with the same stats as above but the Bucs rank similarly. The key note here though is that star Defensive Tackle, Vita Vea, popped up on the injury report for the Bucs this week. He is the clog in the middle and the main reason why this Bucs defense can work because he is an absolute hog stuffing the run. If he is out, Derrick Henry is going to run wild and if he is running wild, or even average to be honest, Lamar is going to have no issues shredding this secondary for chunk play after chunk play. FIREWORKS!
LAC @ ARI
The only interest I have in this game is JK Dobbins. I think he sees another 20+ rushes in here with Vidal mixed in. The Cardinals are allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per game to opposing backs (124.5), the 6th most explosive plays of 10+ rushing yards (24), and have the 6th worst EPA/Rush allowed (+.06). JK all day.
