Week 7 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Betting log: +19.63 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Javonte Williams o45.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Spencer Rattler u182.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
Breakdown
Javonte Williams
The Saints have a brutal rush defense allowing the most YBCo/Att (2.60), the 2nd highest EPA/Rush (+.10), the 3rd highest Rush Yards Per Play (5.2), and the 7th most rush yards per game to RBs (111.2). Over two of the last three games the Broncos have had close games or winning scripts and in those two games (Week 4 and Week 5), Javonte Williams carried the ball 13 and 16 times, accumulating 61 and 77 rushing yards with a +5 Rush EPA in the two games combined. Last week in Week 6, the Broncos were down all game and couldn’t muster anything on offense which resulted in only six carries for 23 yards. I expect the Broncos to be in a close game at the very minimum, giving Javonte 13+ carries in this one.
Spencer Rattler
Rattler played admirably against the Bucs in Week 6 but it wasn’t as good as it may have seemed. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards with two picks and ended with a -13% CPOE and -21.4 EPA. No team blitzes more than the Denver Broncos (44.9%) in the NFL and they have the 3rd highest rack rate (9.7%) because of it, generating pressure 41% of the time. They have allowed the 2nd fewest pass yards per play (4.8) and 5th fewest passing yards per game (170.2) while also holding the 2nd best EPA/Pass (-.29). The Saints will be without Rasheed Shaheed and Chris Olave and already have a decimated offensive line. It doesn’t matter to me if Patrick Surtain is out because the Saints don’t have any offensive weapons to make them pay or anyone on the offensive line to stop the blitzing maniacs.
Notes
DEN -2 @ NO – u37
The Broncos defense has every right to be discussed as the best in the NFL. Traveling to New Orleans on a short week in a Sean Payton “revenge” game, I think they absolutely dominate Spencer Rattler even if Patrick Surtain misses. The Saints are depleted on offense and will likely be without Shaheed and Olave.
– NO TT u16.5: I’m not sure how they score.
TD Scorers: Javonte Williams (+150), Bo Nix (+235), Jaleel McLaughlin (+310), DEN DST (+400), Audric Estime (+1500)
