Week 8 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite TD scorers from the game.
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Betting log: +78.63 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Aaron Jones o66.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Kyren Williams o71.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Cooper Kupp o6.5 Receptions (-120): 3u – MGM
Breakdown
The Rams run defense is bad. They are allowing the 8th most rush yards per play (4.7), 5th highest EPA/Rush (+.06), 9th most RYOE/Att (+.61), have the 5th highest Rush DOVA (6.3%), and have the 6th worst defensive adjusted line yards (4.95). While I wouldn’t have any concerns with the Vikings moving the ball in the air even in a bad matchup, Darnold and the receiving group also have a good matchup with the Rams having the 4th highest Pass Yards Per Play (7), 4th highest YPA (8.1), 8th highest Pass DOVA (14.7%), and 9th highest EPA/Pass (+0).
The plays between Kyren and Kupp are value bets based on volume that is lowered due to recency bias because we haven’t seen it in recent weeks. Kupp is 100% (he could have played Sunday, they saved him) and I fully expect him to get 2-3 targets on the opening drive alone plus Minnesota is allowing the 2nd most receptions per game to opposing WRs (14.6). With Kupp back in the lineup, everything clicks for this offense and it’ll open up running lanes for Kyren. This is likely the lowest we see for Kupp’s receptions and Kyren’s rushing yards for the rest of the season as long as everyone is healthy on this team.
I fully expect this game to stay close and even think the Rams pull out the win. I’m not too focused on any alternate lines at the moment due to that. I think Vegas has it right with the lines and I think this is a game you can Tease all four ways.
Notes
MIN @ LAR +3 – u48
It won’t be pretty but I think Sean McVay takes down his pupil and the Rams win at home on a short week.
Noteworthy Stats (Defensive Allowed):
– LAR 7 Pass YPP (4th most)
– LAR 8.1 YPA allowed (4th most)
– LAR +0 EPA/Pass (9th most)
– LAR 14.7 Pass DVOA (8th most)
– LAR 4.7 Rush YPP (8th most)
– LAR +.06 EPA/Rush (5th most)
– LAR +.61 RYOE/Att (9th most)
– LAR 6.3% Rush DVOA (5th most)
– LAR 4.95 Adjusted Line Yards (6th most)
– MIN 260.3 Pass YPG (3rd)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jalen Nailor (+310), Demarcus Robinson (+360), MIN DST (+450)
