Week 9 MNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +60.99 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Cade Otton o52.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – MGM
– Patrick Mahomes o247.5 Passing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Travis Kelce o5.5 Receptions (-128): 3u – Fanduel
– Noah Gray o21.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 2u – MGM
Breakdown
Cade Otton
Over the last two games Cade Otton has played great ball and has become the focal point of the Bucs passing attack. He has a 24% TPRR over that span with 21 targets and 10+ in each game with 17 receptions and 8+ in each with 181 receiving yards and 81+ in each. I’ve targeted Nick Bolton on the Chiefs for most of the year and it is going to continue here as he is a liability for this offense but not enough to where they need to change schematically. The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs so far this year (62.9) and have allowed five of the seven opposing TEs they have faced to have 58 or more receiving yards against them with the two lone exceptions being the Saints (Johnson/Moreau) and the Chargers (Dissly/Hurst).
Patrick Mahomes
This is a mark Mahomes has hit in three of his last four games as the Chiefs continue to grow this passing game and get acclimated with the personnel they’ll have the rest of the year. The Bucs are a prime matchup for them to continue that process as they have allowed the 4th most passing yards per game this year (255.4), 10th most Pass YPP (6.4), 9th highest EPA/Pass (+.01), the most pass yards per game on passes 10 or less air yards (154.6), and the 5th most on passes between 11 and 20 air yards (77.1). Over the last month of the season every QB they have faced has accrued 243 or more passing yards with the four QBs (Kirk Cousins x2, Lamar Jackson, and Spencer Rattler) averaging 327.25 yards per game and Kirk (x2) and Lamar both hitting 276 or more over their three games.
Travis Kelce
Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury in Week 4, Travis Kelce has averaged nine targets per game with a whopping 91% route participation, 26% TPRR, and a 31% target share with 33% of the team’s air yards. Kelce is back now that Rice isn’t there and it won’t stop. The Bucs have allowed the 2nd most YPG to opposing TEs (70.8) presenting a favorable matchup to boot with the volume.
Noah Gray
Same matchup as Kelce obviously and the line is much more favorable for Gray and I definitely think both hit. Over the last month since Rice went down Gray has stepped up and earned a 47% route participation, 18% TPRR and a 11% target share with target counts of four, two, four, and three and a nice 7.2 ADOT and 23.5 air yards a game with 100% of his targets being catchable targets. He has 23 or more receiving yards in all four of those games and has averaged 39.5 YPG over the span.
Notes
TB +9.5 @ KC – o45.5
The Chiefs are horrible at covering the spread and I think Baker brings enough juice to keep it a single digit game.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– TB 255.4 Pass YPG allowed (4th most)
– TB 6.4 Pass YPP allowed (10th most)
– TB +.10 EPA/Pass allowed (9th most)
– TB 154.6 Pass YPG allowed on passes <10 air yards (most)
– TB 77.1 Pass YPG allowed on passes 11-20 air yards (5th most)
– TB 6.1 RPG to RBs allowed (3rd most)
– TB 158 YPG allowed to WRs (6th most)
– TB 64.8 YPG allowed to TEs (3rd most)
– TB 5.2 Rush YPP allowed (2nd most)
– TB +.05 EPA/Rush allowed (5th most)
– TB +1.29 RYOE/Att allowed (2nd most)
– TB 2.42 YBCo/Att allowed (2nd most)
– KC 5.7% Sack Rate (10th most)
– KC 70.8 YPG allowed to TEs (2nd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Noah Gray (+425), Justin Watson (+550)
