Week 9 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +59.49 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– CJ Stroud u222.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– Breece Hall o66.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
Breakdown
CJ Stroud
CJ Stroud is in trouble on a short week visiting the New York Jets. Stroud is a different QB when he is at home as opposed to the road (specifically outdoors) and does not respond well to pressure. When Stroud plays inside (15 games), he has averaged a 8.53 YPA and 296.9 yards per game as opposed to outside (7 games) where it plummets to a 6.68 YPA and 198.1 yards per game. This year alone the numbers for indoors drop from a 7.95 YPA and 291 yards per game to a 5.35 YPA and 139 yards per game. The last time the Texans visited the Jets he completed only 10 of 23 attempts for 91 passing yards. Stroud will be without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs on a short week in New York, a defense that is one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. They are allowing the 2nd fewest pass yards per game (161.1), 3rd fewest Pass YPP (5.2), 7th best EPA/Pass allowed (-.16) and bring the 4th best sack rate (8.7%) in the NFL. Brock Purdy in Week 1 (231) and Russell Wilson in Week 7 (264) are the only two QBs this year to throw over 220 yards and both of those games were on the road.
Breece Hall
Some may be a bit surprised that I’m on Breece Hall because he is coming off a game in which Braelon Allen hit a season high in rush attempt share (43%). However, Breece Hall’s snap share still stayed around 75% and this is a matchup that is too ripe to pass up. Given it is a short week, I think the Jets prepared for this and knew they would be home against the Texans so they took a little bit of a load off of Breece on Sunday so that he could be fresh for this game. Also, the Jets backs are 100% up against the wall. They can NOT lose this game so they won’t be giving anyone breathers, it is all hands on deck. The Texans defense is allowing the 4th most YACo/Att (3.39), 5th most explosive runs (31), the 9th highest rush yards per play (4.7), and has the 10th worst EPA/Rush (+.01) allowed. Also, since Week 3 every team has had a rusher top 76 or more rushing yards on the Texans except for one and that was the Rhamondre Stevenless New England Patriots. I expect north of 15 carries here and at least one explosive run that will get us home.
Notes
HOU @ NYJ -1.5 – u42.5
People laugh at this line but the Jets win here, maybe by double digits.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
– HOU 3.39 YBCo/Att allowed (4th most)
– HOU 31 Explosive Runs allowed (5th most)
– HOU 4.7 Rush YPP allowed (9th most)
– HOU +.01 EPA/Rush allowed (10th most)
– NYJ 30 Explosive Runs allowed (8th most)
– NYJ 101.4 Rush YPG allowed to RBs (10th most)
– NYJ 47 YPG allowed on 20+ Air Yards (8th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Dalton Schultz (+290), Braelon Allen (+340), Tyler Conklin (+390), NYJ DST (+425), Cade Stover (+700)
