Week 12 Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings. 

NOTE: You’re going to see a lot of 5u plays until further notice. IF you haven’t been in from the start or are unable to hit live plays, adjust accordingly. I am treating my 3u plays like 5u plays for the time being and bumping up my scale because we are +172.53u heading into Week 12’s main slate after a neutral TNF. Everything gets a tier bump and I will be adding to this but I want to get these out as most of these lines just dropped. 

1u -> 2u
2u -> 3u
3u -> 5u
5u -> 10u

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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +172.53 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets
1pm

– Bucky Irving o50.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Bucky Irving 100+ Rushing Yards (+850): 1u – Caesars
– Sean Tucker 1+ TD (+750): 1u – Caesars
– Sean Tucker 2+ TD (+8000): 1u – Fanduel
– Brian Robinson o68.5 Rushing Yards (-130): 5u – MGM
– Austin Ekeler o18.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 5u – MGM
– Austin Ekeler 40+ Receiving Yards (+350): 1u – Caesars
– Austin Ekeler 50+ Receiving Yards (+625): 1u – Caesars
– Austin Ekeler 60+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 1u – Caesars
– Nico Collins 70+ Receiving Yards (-120): 5u – Draftkings
– Nico Collins 130+ Receiving Yards (+525): 1u – Caesars
– Nico Collins 140+ Receiving Yards (+700): 1u – Caesars
– Nico Collins 150+ Receiving Yards (+1000): 1u – Caesars
– CJ Stroud o231.5 Passing Yards (-114): 3u – Fanduel
– Jared Goff o243.5 Passing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Jameson Williams o39.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– Jameson Williams 80+ Receiving Yards (+550): 1u – Draftkings
– Jameson Williams 90+ Receiving Yards (+850): 1u – Draftkings
– Jameson Williams 100+ Receiving Yards (+1200): 2u – Draftkings 

– Jameson Williams 80+ Receiving Yards, Nico Collins 120+ Receiving Yards ALT Parlay (+3020): 1u – Draftkings

4pm
– Bo Nix o213.5 Passing Yards (-120): 5u – Draftkings
– James Conner o68.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – Caesars 

8pm
– TBD (Make sure to be in chat on Sunday)

Unofficial Bets
– Will Levis o188.5 Passing Yards: He has actually played well lately. HOU just gave up 354 to Cooper Rush in W11.
– Aaron Jones o60.5 Rushing Yards: I prefer Akers. See below.
– Rico Dowdle o48.5 Rushing Yards: Even though I think Cowboys can win, I’m good just betting the Commanders side and not getting greedy. Commanders Run D is still very bad.
– Jayden Daniels u222.5 Passing Yards: Major 2H regression candidate. He hasn’t been good lately. 
– De’Von Achane o103.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards: Just didn’t make the cut, I prefer the plays above better. No concrete reason I didn’t bet this. See below for why it is a good play.
– Jaylen Waddle o38.5 Receiving Yards: It felt lucky to be honest we hit him on MNF. I just can’t trust him right now. He has hit this line in each of his last five matchups against the Patriots and averages 66 YPG against them in his career. He could go for 20 or 100, too unpredictable. I also have nothing concrete saying Christian Gonzalez will travel with Tyreek (I lean he doesn’t).
– Kareem Hunt o72.5 Rushing Yards: I think he gets there. I just have a hard time betting on it, he has looked pretty bad. I think he gets in the box as well and that line of -150 is a good bet. 
– Mike Evans o50.5 Receiving Yards: No idea his playing time. Can’t trust it. Matchup is there though. 
– Anthony Richardson o201.5 Passing Yards: Everyone knows how I feel about AR. Lions pass D has been solid lately. I think he gets there but I’m focused on the fact that if he gets there, Goff is likely still slinging it to Jamo so I don’t want to be greedy. 
– David Montgomery o56.5 Rushing Yards: I think he gets there but I’m focused on Goff.
– Jahmyr Gibbs o69.5 Rushing Yards: His line keeps creeping up. Same reasoning as DMont.
– Josh Jacobs o73.5 Rushing Yards: Big game for GB and they have become 5.5 point favorites with Purdy being ruled out. I expect them to be up but not a blow out so we should get a run heavy script for Jacobs. 

Breakdown
Bucky Irving & Sean Tucker
This one is self explanatory once you get down and look at the Giants rush defense below. Mixed with that, they just allowed Chuba Hubbard to run for 153 yards on them on 28 carries, the Commanders backs combined for 30/114 the week prior, Najee Harris and Warren combined for 28/160 in Week 8, Barkley and Gainwell combined for 30/232 in Week 7 and so on. Their run defense is garbage and I fully expect the Bucs to go in and beat up on a demoralized Giants team who seems to be quitting with Tommy DeVito under center. On top of the Bucs just flat out being a better team, we’ll get a 2H script for Irving and his ground running mate, Sean Tucker. I’ll be eying this game live heavily so be ready. The only reason I don’t have a full Bucky ladder is because I think Sean Tucker eats into his second half script. I’m also eying Live lines for this backfield but Offensive Coordinator has been adamant that he wants to get Sean Tucker touches, and touches early, then ride the hot hand. As good as Bucky has been for the Bucs this year, Tucker may be a better pure rusher on the ground. Both of these backs are going to eat in a positive game script against a defense that very well could just quit on their coaches in this game if it gets out of hand. 

NOTE: As i’ve mentioned a few times in chat, I’m eying this Sean Tucker line. There is nothing up yet and if we don’t get one, I’m hoping we get one live. Bucs’ Offensive Coordinator, Liam Coen, said during their Bye week they did some self scouting on their RB usage. His quote below:

“It’s hard to get three guys 8-10 touches each. How do we make sure we leave each week saying, okay, Sean Tucker touched the ball a few times? That’s something that we need to make sure that we do, and get him involved in the game earlier on, so if he is running well and getting some juice, he can keep going. Maybe it’s tagging some things for him to just make sure that we can get him in and touching the ball.”

I’m afraid that if we are forced to hit a live line, it will be too late which is why I want to take this game pre-game. Unfortunately, we don’t usually get lines for “3rd string RBs” but also these backs usually don’t get work and praise like Tucker. This is a wait and see situation but it is on the forefront of my mind going into the games and will be my main focus once these 1pm games kick off.

Brian Robinson
Robinson came out of last week’s game unharmed with no setbacks against the Eagles and now has had an extended week of rest for this game. The Commanders are 11 point home favorites against the Cowboys defense who has been shredded on the ground. They more or less did stop Joe Mixon in Week 11 besides a 1st drive untouched 45 yard TD run, but this ground game is different. Regardless of any metrics below (make sure to check them out), the Cowboys have allowed at least one rusher to top 66 rushing yards in each of their last five games with four of them hitting 80+ rushing yards. I have an unexplained hunch that the Cowboys will stay in this game and oddly enough, I think they can win it, so I don’t think we have a script issue. 

Austin Ekeler
With Robinson healthy, the Commanders are going to go back to their 1-2 punch of Robinson on the ground mostly and Ekeler in the air. Ekeler is coming off of his best receiving game so far this season and he is looking better and better as the season progresses. Out of the eight “healthy” Robinson games this year, Ekeler has 22 or more receiving yards in all but two of them, which was Week 7 against the Panthers, a weird blowout win, and Week 8 against the Bears. In the other six games Ekeler has averaged 47.83 YPG in the air. The Cowboys are allowing 7th most receiving yards to RBs per game (37.09). As I keep mentioning, I think the Cowboys can win this game so I’m entering without a concern that the Commanders blow the Cowboys out, I don’t think that happens. We will get 4 quarters of Ekeler. 

Nico Collins & CJ Stroud
While I’m not specifically targeting the Titans here, their pass defense hasn’t been one I’ve targeted overall this year so far for two reasons. First, they are allowing the fewest pass yards per game this year (164.6) and 4th fewest pass YPP (5.5) yet they have the 15th ranked EPA/Pass (-0.07). They have the 10th lowest sack rate (6.1%) and the 16th lowest QB Pressure rate (33.1%).  When you look further into it, with that gap between yards and EPA/Pass being alarming, you see why. They haven’t played anyone and when they do, they get shredded. In Week 1 they faced Caleb Williams in his first NFL game, holding him to 93 yards. Week 2 they faced Aaron Rodgers, holding him to 176 and now have more data from that offense showing just what a shit show they are. In Week 3 they were gutted by Malik Willis to the tune of 202 passing yards on only 19 attempts. In Week 4 they got blessed with Tyler Huntley, holding him to 96 yards on 22 attempts in a shit show of a game. After their Bye week (always play better with the extra week) they get the hapless Joe Flacco Colts and hold Flacco to 189 yards on 38 attempts. In Week 7 Josh Allen absolutely guts them for 323 yards on 33 attempts. Jared Goff isn’t needed in Detroit’s Week 8 thumping of the Titans, throwing for only 85 yards on 15 attempts but the Titans by no means stopped Goff. In Week 9 they did play well against rookie Drake Maye, holding him to 206 yards on 41 attempts. These last two weeks? Justin Herbert gutted them for 164 yards on 18 attempts and then last week Sam Darnold picked them apart for 246 yards on 32 attempts. Over these last two games they have the 6th worst EPA/Pass (+0.33). This all leads me to why I am on Stroud and Nico this week. This Texans offense wants to get right throwing the ball. They have to get right passing the ball if they want a Super Bowl. This will go through Nico Collins and they know that. While, looking back, I think everyone, myself included, interpreted the Texans intentions how we wanted to interpret them thinking Nico would play 100% of the snaps because Nico said he was 100% and it was reported he was a full go. The Texans had a plan, and they enacted it, sending Nico out for 55% of the routes but he had a pure ALPHA 33% TPRR. Even without his 77 yard TD on the first play, Nico had a 32.2% air yard share, 3.0 YPRR, 7.71 YPT and 2.75 YACo/REC. He is BACK. This is better for everyone involved and I fully expect Stroud to see his numbers shoot up and Nico to start balling out again. Full go, 80% route participation with the books setting his line as if it is 60%.

Jared Goff & Jameson Williams
Anytime you give me Goff, in a dome, against another good offense, against a bad defense, and the line is under 250, I’m going to take it 100% of the time. Anytime the Colts play a halfway defense QB, they get smoked. They allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for 371 in Week 5, Stroud got to 285 in Week 8, Darnold 290 in Week 9 and Josh Allen 280 in Week 10. Sandwiched in there were QBs they kept in “check” with guys like Levis throwing for 95, Huntley and Boyle combining for 161, and Aaron Rodgers only getting to 184. Over their last four games the Colts are allowing 247.75 YPG and that includes the 184 dud from Aaron Rodgers last week. As we know by now, Jared Goff is absolutely balling in this offense and has taken his play to a new level with how comfortable he is. Well, when he plays in a dome, which he has eight time this year (Lions are a dome), he leads the NFL with a ridiculous 9.67 YPA. Technically, Lamar Jackson has a 12.13 YPA but he has only played one game in a dome this year and threw the ball 15 times (Dallas). In those eight games Goff has a 75.2% completion rate, 2,107 yards (263.4 YPG) with 17 TDs and only four picks. I don’t expect the Colts to get much pressure on Goff at all, they rank 17th in the NFL with a 32.9% QB Pressure Rate and, as we know, the Lions OL is elite. In terms of Jameson Williams, a lot of it goes hand in hand with Goff, obviously. The Colts have allowed the 9th most YPG to WRs (154.6) and 3rd most YPG on passes 20+ air yards (55.7). Obviously Jamo has played a lot of games indoors as well but he owns the 3rd most receiving yards in the NFL in terms of dome games with 485 (7 games). He is averaging 69.3 YPG and has 23.1% of the Lions air yards, a 13.9 ADOT, 2.55 YPRR, 13.47 YPT, 11.57 YAC/Rec, and 24.3% of Goff’s 1st read targets in dome games. Plus, at the end of the day, we’re here to have fun and make money right? What is more fun than rooting for one of the fastest WRs in the NFL to house a crosser every single offensive snap and exploding once he does?

Cam Akers
We don’t have any Cam Akers lines posted because just like Sean Tucker, we don’t have any. I touched on Akers a bit in the Waiver Wire article but basically he has become the 35% of a new 65/35 split in Minnesota’s backfield. The Vikings know how talented Jones is but they also know how delicate he is and injury prone. They went out and added Akers for a draft pick because he knows the system and has shown some burst. This week they face the Chicago Bears in Chicago, a defense that surprisingly has been pretty bad against the run this year and it has increased over the last month. Overall on the season they have allowed the 5th highest rush YPP (4.8), 8th most RYOE/Att (+0.63), 9th most YBCo/Att (1.71), and 10th most YACo/Att (3.11). Over the last month they have allowed 157.75 Rush YPG which is the 5th highest over that span. I don’t love Akers here like I do Tucker but I definitely think we have an edge with Akers if the line presents itself worthy. 

4pm
Bo Nix
If the books won’t adjust, we’ll keep hammering Bo Nix. Nix has had at least 215 passing yards in each of his last four games with an average of 257.25 a game and a 7.7 YPA. He has completed 14 passes for 20+ yards and only Patrick Mahomes has a better Back Pass Rate than him with Mahomes 9.6% and Nix 9.8%. Over the Raiders last three games against the Chiefs, Bengals and Dolphins, they have allowed 255.33 Pass YPG and hold a +0.36 EPA/Pass. Overall, teams have an astronomical 77.29% play success rate against them which is honestly mind boggling given they are supposed to be a defensive minded team. Sean Payton is in his bag right now and Diana Russini said anytime she texts him to ask how things are going, about anything, all Payton responds to her with is “I love my QB”. The dude is in love with Nix and you see it unfold every week. The offense now runs through Nix and dare I say it looks like Payton has his next Drew Brees? Bo Nix for ROTY.

James Conner
This isn’t a huge “value” play per se but I love this spot for Conner. On top of the stats below against this Seahawks run defense, they have allowed at least one rusher to have 69+ rushing yards in every game since Week 3 against the Skylar Thompson led Miami Dolphins. Over that seven game span, they are allowing a 5.27 YPC to opposing backs and 128.72 Rush YPG. Three of the seven backs have topped 100 rushing yards but out of the Bye I am a bit curious on how the Cardinals deploy James Conner and Trey Benson. Benson has played well of late and they may want to preserve Conner just a tad due to the Cardinals eying up a playoff birth but I’m confidently leaning that the Cardinals are just pushing forward full fledge and still viewing Benson as a breather for Conner and handcuff. 

Notes
TEN @ HOU -8.5 – o41.5
Usually don’t bet on divisional games but I think Houston starts to pick it up with Nico healthy and they get this offense back on track. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
TEN
– 6.1% Sack Rate (10th lowest)

HOU
– 152.8 YPG to WRs (10th most)
– 40 Explosive Runs (8th most)
– 3.29 YACo/Att (4th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Dalton Schultz (+250), Dameon Pierce (+650), Cade Stover (+700)

MIN @ CHI +3.5 – u39.5
Thomas Brown is bringing leadership to the offensive side of the ball. They looked good in Week 11 and should have won. Upset candidate this week. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
MIN
– 234.8 Pass YPG (5th most)
– 48.4 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (6th most)
– 84.6 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (2nd most)
– 165.7 YPG to WRs (5th most)

CHI
– 78.4 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (8th most)
– 4.8 Rush YPP (5th most)
– 3.11 YACo/Att (10th most)
– +0.63 RYOE/Att (8th most)
– 1.71 YBco/Att (9th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Cam Akers (+340), TJ Hockenson (+310), Caleb Williams (+390), Josh Oliver (+600)

DAL +11 @ WAS – u45
Call me crazy but I think the Cowboys can win this game. The Commanders offense is regressing and we are in the beginning stages of their winter Kliff. Jayden Daniels has regressed as a passer as defenses got film on him and Kliff and he isn’t running as much due to a speculative rib injury. If the Cowboys can have success on the ground and throw the Commanders offense off balance, they can sneak out a win here and shock everyone.  

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
DAL
– 7.1 Pass YPP (2nd most)
– +0.07 EPA/Pass (5th most)
– +0.15 EPA/Rush (most)
– 4.7 Rush YPP (9th most)
– 41 Explosive Runs (7th most)
– 3.17 YACo/Att (7th most)
– +0.61 RYOE/Att (9th most)

WAS
– 5.0 Rush YPP (2nd most)
– 123.4 Rush YPG to RBs (2nd most)
– 48 Explosive Runs (most)
– 2.21 YBCo/Att (3rd most)
– +0.00 EPA/Rush (10th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Noah Browns (+250), Luke Schoonmaker (+330), 

NE +7 @ MIA – o46
Drake Maye looks phenomenal. I think Miami wins but I’m not betting against Maye, he is too fun to watch. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
NE
– 6.6 Pass YPP (8th most)
– +0.03 EPA/Pass (8th most)
– 31.5% QB Pressure Rate (9th lowest)
– 158.6 YPG to WRs (7th most)
– 116.6 Rush YPG to RBs (4th most)

MIA
– 4.9% Sack Rate (4th most)
– +0.63 RYOE/Att (7th most)
– 3.8 YACo/Att (most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Drake Maye (+275)

KC @ CAR +11 – u43
Eh. KC never covers. This game will be boring. KC will win though. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
KC
– 5% Sack Rate (6th lowest)
– 134.9 YPG on passes <10 air yards (10th most)
– 67.5 YPG to TEs (2nd most)

CAR
– 226.8 Pass YPG (9th most)
– 7.1 Pass YPP (2nd most)
– +0.09 EPA/Pass (2nd most)
– 3.6% Sack Rate (2nd lowest)
– 27.4% QB Pressure Rate (2nd lowest)
– 80.2 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (4th most)
– 60.5 YPG to TEs (6th most)
– 133.9 Rush YPG to RBs (most)
– 37 Explosive Runs (10th most)
– +0.03 EPA/Rush (4th most)
– 1.97 YBCo/Att (8th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Juju Smith-Schuster (+310), Xavier Legette (+310), JT Sanders (+550)

TB -5.5 @ NYG – o41.5
Many DeVito gives the Giants a surge but he isn’t a good QB so it is unlikely. I think the Bucs run it down the Giants’ throats. I never discount Brian Daboll though, he’ll have the Giants well prepared and will sling the rock as best he can. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
TB
– 264.1 Pass YPG (3rd most)
– 6.5 Pass YPP (10th most)
– +0.07 EPA/Pass (5th most)
– 80.9 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (3rd most)
– 165.4 YPG on passes <10 air yards (most)
– 163.8 YPG to WRs (6th most)
– 68.4 YPG to TEs (most)
– +0.01 EPA/Rush (8th most)
– 2.11 YBCo/Att (4th most)
– +0.68 RYOE/Att (6th most)
– 4.8 Rush YPP (5th most)

NYG
– 47.5 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (9th most)
– 5.3 Rush YPP (most)
– +0.09 EPA/Rush (2nd most)
– 116.9 Rush YPG to RBs (3rd most)
– 45 Explosive Runs (3rd most)
– 2.35 YBCo/Att (most)
– 1.38 RYOE/Att (most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Sean Tucker (+600)

DET -7 @ IND – o50.5
I’m very excited for this game. I can’t bet against the Lions, they are just too good. But MAN this one is going to be electric. If we get Week 11 Anthony Richardson, my eyes will be glued to this one. I want all the ARSB and Goff smoke here. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
DET
– 232.7 Pass YPG (6th most)
– 6.1% Sack Rate (9th most)
– 77.9 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)
– 137.2 YPG on passes <10 air yards (7th most)
– 171.6 YPG to WRs (4th most)
– 1.97 YBCo/Att (5th most)

IND
– 231.5 Pass YPG (5th most)
– 6.7 Pass YPP (6th most)
– 55.7 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– 154.6 YPG to WRs (9th most)
– 56.5 YPG to TEs (10th most)
– 115.1 Rush YPG to RBs (5th most)
– 48 Explosive Runs (most)
– 3.22 YACo/Att (5th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Brock Wright (+600)

DEN -5.5 @ LV – u41
I’m becoming a Nix fan boy because we keep getting profitable lines.  

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
DEN
– None

LV
– 5.3% Sack Rate (7th lowest)
– 29.7% QB Pressure Rate (5th lowest)
– 61.3 YPG to TEs (5th most)
– +0.83 RYOE/Att (4th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Marvin Mims (+425), Lucas Krull (+500), Zamir White (+550), 

ARI +1 @ SEA – u47.5
Both teams are coming off a Bye but Arizona just looks like a well coached unit and is a year ahead of Seattle right now so I give them the nod. Dare I say Walker has a good matchup?  

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
ARI 
– +0.03 EPA/Pass (8th most)
– 29.1% QB Pressure Rate (3rd most)
– 136.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (8th most)
– +0.02 EPA/Rush (6th most)
– 108.1 Rush YPG to RBs (8th most)

SEA
– 138.2 YPG on passes <10 air yards (6th most)
– +0.02 EPA/Rush (5th most)
– 109.4 Rush YPG to RBs (6th most)
– 4.8 Rush YPP (5th most)
– 3.61 YACo/Att (2nd most)
– +0.89 RYOE/Att (2nd most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Trey Benson (+475)

SF @ GB -2.5 – u47.5
The 49ers are spiraling. Give me the healthier home team in colder weather. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
SF
– None

GB
– 31% QB Pressure Rate (7th lowest)
– 3.14 YACo/Att (9th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: None

PHI @ LAR +3 – u48.5
Flip a coin on this one. Both defenses are playing great right now and both offenses are extremely talented so I’ll cop out and take the points. 

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
PHI
– 31.1% QB Pressure Rate (8th lowest)

LAR
– 6.8 Pass YPP (4th most)
– 54.2 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (4th most)
– 56.6 YPG to TEs (9th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Demarcus Robinson (+300), Blake Corum (+600)