Week 12 TNF Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings. 

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Disclosure: How I bet

Betting log: +172.68 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets

– Najee Harris o65.5 Rushing Yards (-123): 5u – Caesars

– Jaylen Warren o36.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel

– Jameis Winston o211.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – MGM

– Jameis Winston 250+ Passing Yards (+245): 1u – Draftkings

– Jameis Winston 275+ Passing Yards (+475): 1u – Draftkings 

– Mike Williams 1+ TD (+750): 1u – Fanduel

– Mike Williams 2+ TD (+12000): 1u – Fanduel

– Cordarrelle Patterson 1+ TD (+1000): 1u- Fanduel

– Cordarrelle Patterson 2+ TD (+11000): 1u – Draftkings

Unofficial Bets

– George Pickens o55.5 Receiving Yards: Worried about volume. 

– Jerry Jeudy o44.5 Receiving Yards: Sticking with Winston.

– Cedric Tillman o40.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Jeudy.

Breakdown

Najee Harris

Harris has been ballin out since Week 6 and the only game he hasn’t hit his rushing prop was Week 10 against the Commanders. He has had at least 14 carries in all of those games and has topped 18 in each of his last four, totalling 52% of the Steelers rush attempts over that span. Even after facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL last week, he looked crisp and quick, which I will continue to say until he doesn’t. He has at least three Explosive Runs (10+ yard) in four of the five games in this span and has topped 15+ MPH 12 times. Since Week 2 the only team not to get home against the Browns on the ground was the Bengals in Week 7 with each of the last three teams having at least one RB hitting 67 or more rushing yards against them. See below for more data on how the Browns have fared against opposing rushing attacks.

Jaylen Warren

Over the last month Warren has carried the ball at least nine times in every game and has hit 44 or more rushing yards in each. He is getting healthy and this is a 60/40 split with both backs looking quick, decisive and explosive. He has five Explosive Runs over the last month I expect more of the same here. 

Jameis Winston

This is a volume play for Winston. In his three starts he has thrown the ball 41, 46, and 46 times. The Browns know their defense is awful and is falling apart more and more as the season progresses. In his three starts he has averaged 321.33 yards per game and has an ADOT of 7.3 with two games over 8.1. We can point to a similar style of game to this that the Browns played in Week 9 as they hosted the Chargers, losing 27-10. The Chargers are a run heavy team that plays stout defense, just like the Steelers. Winston still managed to throw the ball 46 times, completing 26 of them for 235 yards with a score and three picks. This is what we are getting with this Browns offense in the year of 2024 and I expect it to continue, regardless of matchup. The matchup is a tough one which is why we get the line of 211.5 but this is a home game on a short week in a situation where the Browns are 3.5 underdogs to the Steelers so I would expect multiple pass heavy drives. Even though we don’t have much data wise that says to attack the Steelers, we do have them allowing 142.4 YPG on passes that travel less than 10 air yards, which is the 4th most in the NFL. Also, besides Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, both of which are ingrained in run heavy offenses and only threw the ball 33 and 34 times against the Steelers, opposing QBs have racked up yards against the Steelers. In Week 5 Dak Prescott threw for 352 yards on 42 attempts, Week 6 Aidan O’Connell threw for 227 yards on 40 attempts, Week 7 Aaron Rodgers threw for 276 yards on 39 attempts and in Week 8 Daniel Jones threw for 264 yards on 38 attempts. 

Notes

PIT @ CLE +3.5 – o36.5

I don’t have a strong lean here. It is hard to say the Browns will flat out win this game but on a short week going into a divisional opponent’s place is always a tough win. I do, however, think we see some points.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:

PIT 

– 142.4 YPG on passes <10 air yards (4th most)

CLE 

– 6.6 Pass YPP (8th most)

– 52.5 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (5th most)

– 4.8 Rush YPP (5th most)

– 1.78 YBCo/Att (8th most)

– +0.85 RYOE/Att (3rd Most)

– 42 Explosive Runs (4th most) 

Longshot TD Scorers: See above