Week 17 Saturday Betting Breakdown

Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings. 

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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +121.69 Betting Results (2024)

Official Bets
– Antonio Gibson o29.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
– Antonio Gibson 70+ Rushing Yards (+870): 1u – Fanduel
– Antonio Gibson 80+ Rushing Yards (+1200): 1u – Fanduel
– Antonio Gibson 80+ Rushing Yards (+1700): 1u – Fanduel
– Drake Maye o214.5 Passing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Austin Hooper o24.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Ladd McConkey o70.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Bo Nix 225+ Passing Yards (-130): 3u – Draftkings
– Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards (-130): 3u – Draftkings
– Kyren Williams 90+ Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – ESPNBet
– Blake Corum o13.5 Rushing Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel

Unofficial Bets
– Justin Herbert o231.5 Passing Yards: Pats pass D is bad and Quentin Johnston theoretically has a good matchup here and could land a big play for Herbert’s line but I’m sticking with Ladd.
– Kayshon Boutte o36.5 Receiving Yards: He is emerging as an every down player and earning more targets but I like Hooper more.
– Joe Burrow u273.5 Passing Yards: The Broncos defense is getting Moss back and is not something to be ignored. I don’t want to bet against Burrow right now but I hate this matchup for Burrow and Chase unfortunately. With that said, they both can go nuclear at any moment, regardless or matchup so I’m staying away.
– Ja’Marr Chase u92.5 Receiving Yards: Same as Burrow
– Troy Franklin o20.5 Receiving Yards: Too inconsistent for me but he has a great matchup here. He would have to catch both of his targets which I don’t want to bet on.
– Kyler Murray o224.5 Passing Yards: Rams pass defense has been bad but Kyler is way too inconsistent for me to bet his passing yards. Wouldn’t be shocked if he goes 250+ though.
– Puka Nacua o86.5 Receiving Yards: You can bet Puka any given week regardless of matchup.

Breakdown
Antonio Gibson
This is a cross between the Chargers having a poor run defense and the belief Gibson is going to earn more touches, and likely start this game at RB. Rhmaondre Stevenson continues to cough the ball up via fumbles and the coaching staff is far from pleased. In a recent presser, Jerod Mayo (Patriots Head Coach) was visibly annoyed with Stevenson. When asked if Gibson would get the start, like earlier in the year, he said it’s a possibility and went on to berate Stevenson for turning the ball over before finally saying they view Stevenson as a good player and a part of this team long term. The full quote:”

“I think everyone understands how important the football is. We’re a team that we just can’t turn the ball over… I thought Gibby, when he got in there, did a great job. We gotta go back and talk about it as a staff, but that’s definitely still a possibility…We all, in this building, stand behind Rhamondre. He does a lot of good things. Unfortunately, right now, the ball’s just on the ground too much.”

Since Week 9 (7 games) the Chargers are allowing the 3rd highest YPC (4.85) and have been beaten by starting RBs and backup RBs. Over that span, 10 RBs have hit 44 or more RBs with multiple backs hitting that mark in three of the seven games and even last week the Broncos (who refused to run the ball) had Javonte Williams get 24 on 4 carries (spoiler alert, Williams sucks) and Audric Estime get to 48 yards on 9 carries. 

Drake Maye
This is one that was originally going to be unofficial but the more I dug, the more impressive Drake Maye is. The Chargers pass defense has been bad, just like their run defense, over the last 8 games, allowing 243.63 Pass YPG and have seen opposing QBs trickle drives as they have allowed the 2nd most pass attempts at 35.5 a game. Three of their last four opposing QBs have hit 245 or more passing yards, including Kirk Cousins in Week 13 shortly before he was benched for being so bad. The Chargers run Zone at the 5th highest rate (62.76%) in the NFL. Over the last four games, Maye has faced all teams in the top 8 with this coverage. Buffalo runs zone the 4th most (63.16%), Arizona runs it the 8th most (59.18%), Indianapolis runs it the 7th most (59.21%) and Miami runs it the 6th most (59.52%). Maye is not only used to seeing zone cover because of this but he has eclipsed 222 or more passing yards in three of those four games, averaging 230.8 YPG with a 7.33 YPA and 31.5 attempts per game with a 69% completion rate. 

Austin Hooper
Hooper has 35 or more receiving yards in each of his last six games with at least three receptions in each with a 23% TPRR, averaging 48.8 YPG and has a 14.4% 1st read rate. He also has a 2.79 YPRR and a 12.21 YPT and 4.77 YAC/Rec. The chemistry between Hooper and Maye is real. 

Ladd McConkey
In recent weeks the Patriots have been stubborn in their defensive tactics, refusing to specialize against opposing WRs, which was mentioned after the Rams game when Puka Nacua went 7/123/1 on 9 targets and Cooper Kupp went 10/6/106/2. The week after, Jaylen Waddle shredded them, going 8/144/1 on 9 targets. Since Week 11 (5 games) Ladd has emerged as the Chargers go to WR1 and has hit his back half rookie WR bump. He leads the team in nearly every necessary mark. He has a 85.7% route participation, 28.1% air yard share, 40 raw targets, 25% TPRR, 2.89 YPRR, 11.70 YPT, and that coveted WR1 34.4% 1st read rate. This has resulted in 468 yards (93.6 YPG). He has topped 83 or more receiving yards in four of those five games and I expect it to happen again in this one. 

Bo Nix
Bo Nix continues to have his mark below 230 even though he has hit 263 or more in four of his last five games as he continues to get better in this offense with the help of Sean Payton designing profitable pass plays for him. Over these five games he is averaging 253.4 YPG with a 6.92 YPA, 12 TDs and 5 picks. These aren’t gaudy numbers but we don’t need gaudy against this Bengals defense. In about the same time frame (last six games), the Bengals have allowed a 7.80 YPA to opposing QBs with their last three opponents being backup QBs (Cooper Rush, Mason Rudolpin, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson). The three QBs before that went off with Lamar Jackson throwing for 290 on 33 attempts, Herbert throwing for 297 on 36 attempts and Wilson throwing for 414 on 38 attempts. The Broncos are well aware the Bengals are going to push the envelope on offense and will be doing the same with Bo Nix and this passing attack.  

Courtland Sutton
Even though Sutton has disappointed the last couple of weeks, I like his prospect here. He still has WR1 metrics with a team high across the board in 78.9% route participation, 46.8% air yard share, 8.9 TPG, 29% TPRR, 2.64 YPRR, 9.17 YPT, and a 32% 1st read rate all resulting in 81.4 YPG. This matchup is ripe for the reasons I mentioned above and the Bengals pushing the envelope on offense but the Bengals defense is susceptible between 10-19 air yards. They are allowing the 5th most YPG (78.5) and have the 4th highest EPA/Pass (+0.55) in that range. Sutton is the only consistent WR on the Broncos with an ADOT over 10 with it coming in at 13. 

Kyren Williams & Blake Corum
Kyren has seen an insane workload over the last three games. He has averaged 27 carries per game, 105.7 YPG, and has topped 87 or more yards in each of those games with the last two being 108 and 122. This is just a pure volume bet as Kyren is only averaging 3.91 YPC over this span. Sean McVay has been extremely stubborn with running the ball and it is working, passing off of the run as opposed to running off of the pass. This matchup is a good one for Kyren as the Cards have allowed a 5.64 YPC over their last three games with guys like Zach Charbonnet (22/134/2) and Chuba Hubbard (25/152/2) going off against them. Even in Week 15 Stevenson and Gibson combined for 20 carries, going for 102 rushing yards. Over this same span we have seen Blake Corum get some work in so the numbers are built in for Kyren. In these three games Corum has posted numbers of 8/34, 3/5, and 5/15. That also plays in to why I think Corum hits his rushing mark as well. 

Notes
LAC @ NE +4.5 – o42.5
Maye keeps getting better and better with more reps. Not betting against this Patriots team right now.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LAC
– +0.78 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (3rd most)
– 7.6 YPA (6th)
– 8.44 YPT to WRs (4th most)
– 4.64 YPC to RBs (9th most)
– 3.32 YACo/Att (3rd most)

NE
– +0.05 EPA/Pass (3rd most)
– 5.4% Sack Rate (4th lowest)
– 29.7% QB Pressure Rate (4th most)
– +0.13 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– 4.73 YP to RBs (5th most)
– 115.5 YPG to RBs (3rd most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Antonio Gibson (+255), Kayshon Boutte (+350), Austin Hooper (+425)

DEN @ CIN -3 – o49
The Bengals are a better team than the Broncos.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
DEN
– 83.3 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (3rd most)

CIN
– 5.1% Sack Rate (3rd lowest)
– 78.5 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (5th most)
– +0.55 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (4th most)
– 243.27 Pass YPG (T8th most)
– 7.33 YPA (10th most)
– 67.6 YPG to TEs (3rd most)
– +0.01 EPA/Rush (T6th most)
– +0.85 RYOE/Att (2nd most)
– 3.17 YACo/Att (T9th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Andrei Iosivas (+300), Marvin Mims (+320)

ARI +6.5 @ LAR – u48.5
The Cardinals are banged up and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams pull away but that hasn’t been their style this year as they have tried to control the clock and take the stress off their defense. Also, divisional games get weird so I think Cards cover but Rams win.

Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
ARI
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T5th most)
– 31.9% QB Pressure Rate (9th most)
– +0.51 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (7th most)
– 136.5 YPG on passes <10 air yards (7th most)
– +0.15 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (Tied most)
– 8.25 YPT to WRs (10th most)
– 108.7 Rush YPG to RBs (7th most)
– +0.03 EPA/Rush (4th most)
– 4.68 YPC to RBs (7th most)
– 54 Explosive Runs (10th most)
– 3.26 YACo/Att (4th most)
– +0.62 RYOE/Att (6th most)

LAR
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T5th most)
– 6.0% Sack Rate (T10th lowest) 
– +0.60 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (5th most)
– +0.08 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T5th most)
– 8.33 YPT to WRs (8th most)
– 57.2 YPG to TEs (9th most)
– 7.62 YPA (5th most)
– -0.02 EPA/Rush (T10th most)
– 102.9 YPG to RBs (10th most)
– 4.49 YPC to RBs (10th most)

Longshot TD Scorers: Demarcus Robinson (+330), Blake Corum (+500)