Week 17 Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +107.67 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
Week 17 Sunday
1pm
– Bucky Irving o99.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-120): 5u – ESPNBet
– Mike Evans o79.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Mike Evans o82.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 5u – Fanduel
– Mike Evans 140+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u – Fanatics
– Mike Evans 155+ Receiving Yards (+950): 1u – Fanatics
– Mike Evans 170+ Receiving Yards (+1400): 2u – Fanduel
– Adam Thielen o55.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Jonathan Taylor o95.5 Rushing Yards (-120): 5u – Fanatics
– Brock Bowers o66.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – Draftkings
– JT Sanders o11.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – Draftkings
– JT Sanders 40+ Receiving Yards (+600): 1u – Draftkings
– JT Sanders 50+ Receiving Yards (+1100): 1u – Draftkings
– Rico Dowdle o58.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Saquon Barkley o11.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – Draftkings
4pm
– TBD: I don’t love these two games. I’ll play it by ear pending how this massive 1pm set of games goes.
8pm
– TBD
Unofficial Bets
– Jalen McMillan o39.5 Receiving Yards: Heavy on Evans but love McMillan in this spot too.
– Baker Mayfield o243.5 Passing Yards: Evans the move but Baker gets home too.
– Bryce Young o223.5 Passing Yards: He dropped over 290 in their first meeting. He’ll do it again but I prefer Thielen for official plays.
– Mason Rudolph o220.5 Passing Yards: The only QB to be held under this mark since Week 9 was Will Levis.
– Calvin Ridley o60.5 Receiving Yards: As we found out a few weeks ago, he can’t be trusted. Amazing matchup though. I have more faith in Rudolph to get him the ball at this point than I do Levis but I liked Levis when they played last time so I’m staying away.
– Tank Bigsby o45.5 Rushing Yards: I’d rather hit it live. Etienne is still starting and even if I sacrifice a few yards, we know this Jags running game is script dependent.
– Dante Pettis Receiving Yards: Nothing is open. Probably won’t be. But Rattler peppered him with 5 targets last week with a 19% TPRR and a 25% 1st read rate.
– Josh Allen o216.5 Passing Yards: This is just a value line. If this game is competitive, and it will be, he’ll have to throw.
– Brandin Cooks o3.5 Receptions: No Lamb. Cooks gets more looks.
– Grant Calcaterra o16.5 Receiving Yards: Same concept as with Barkley. Pickett is in, banged up with bruised ribs. With a week to plan for Pickett I’m betting that Kellen Moore put in more of his classic offensive concepts with dumping the ball to the RB and focusing on the TE over the middle of the field. I really like Calcaterra this week.
– DeVon Achane o58.5 Rushing Yards: Was last week for real? Or a flash in the pan?
– Tyreek Hill o49.5 Receiving Yards: Pathetic that Jonnu Smith is projected for more yards than Reek, isn’t it?
Breakdown
Bucky Irving
Bucky is a beast. The only thing I debated here was if we wanted to include the receiving yards and I felt it was best to sacrifice the 19 yards in order to secure big plays in the air with Bucky. Surprise to no one, the Panthers, even though usually in negative game scripts, have allowed the 10th most YPT to RBs and give up the 15th most receiving yards even though they give up the 14th fewest receptions. I’m not going to bore you with how putrid the Panthers run defense is, it’s awful. The utmost confidence in this play comes from the fact Offensive Coordinator, Liam Coen, stressed issues with Rachaad White fumbling the game away in Week 16. He said they practice time and time again protecting the ball and it is a massive focus for them. He followed that up by saying “Definitely want to get Bucky more carries and touches as you go, for sure.” This was in follow up as well to how good Bucky is and just getting the ball in his hands overall. I fully expect Bucky to have absolutely no restrictions in Week 17 and the Bucs will fully unleash him.
Mike Evans
Just a few short games ago (Week 13) Mike Evans went for 118 yards on 12 targets (8 catches) with a touchdown to boot. Over the last four games the Panthers have run 1-High 63% of the time, a cover Mike Evans has demolished with a 29% TPRR and a 3.23 YPRR. The Panthers will also be without Jacee Horn, leaving the scraps to try and stop Evans. He only needs 192 receiving yards over the final two games to get to 1,000 receiving yards on the season to continue his streak. I am very confident the locker room, Baker Mayfield included, is well aware of this. I’ll piggyback on that ride.
Adam Thielen
Thielen has 51 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games since returning from his injury, one being an 8/99/1 game against this very Bucs defense in Week 13. Over these five games Thielen has an 80.5% route participation with a 29.2% air yards share and 24% TPRR. He is averaging 70.4 YPG and has 7.6 TPG with a near elite 29.6% 1st read rate. The Bucs have allowed at least one WR to hit 58 or more receiving yards in every game since Week 7 and I’m banking on that streak continuing with Thielen yet again hitting his mark.
JT Sanders
Chalk this one up as one of my wilder plays. I am betting a ladder on a player who hasn’t caught a single pass since Week 12! But, he is running routes. The Bucs are allowing the 2nd most YPG (67.8) and 3rd most YPT (8.55) to opposing TEs. The last time Sanders accrued a stat was Week 12 against the Chiefs when he was absolutely balling, catching three balls for 48 yards before getting rocked and taken out with a bad concussion. He sat out Week 13 but returned in Week 14 and over his last three games he has run a combined 45 routes with only two targets and receptions. However, he has run 45 routes which is the most among the Carolina TEs. He has a 53.6% route participation and is even running routes out wide (30.5%). This week Head Coach, Dave Canales was asked about Sanders due to his lack of production and this was his response “The tight ends have been a big part of what we’re doing in the run and pass game. Tommy Tremble has had some really great plays over the last couple weeks, breaking tackles and stretching the field for us. We expect JT Sanders to get rolling when he gets his opportunities, as well.” We know Sanders can be explosive, we’ve seen it. He has the volume, he is running routes. Now the matchup is there for him to get some targets. I’m taking the shot to see if he can concert them and get some big plays in a game the Panthers are 8 point under dogs and the game total is 47.5.
Jonathan Taylor
We’ve targeted the Giants all year and that won’t stop now. Jonathan Taylor is in a prime spot to blow up and has been carrying an insane workload this year. Since Week 10, he has 21 or more carries in every game except one, which was a lopsided loss to the Lions where he only ran the ball 11 times for 35 yards. Removing that Lions game, Taylor is averaging over 24 carries and 118.4 YPG with a 4.89 YPC. If Taylor has 25 carries in this one he will go for 150+ again.
Rico Dowdle
Since Week 12 the only game Rico hasn’t hit 18 or more carries and topped 86 or more rushing yards was last week against the Bucs who notoriously have an elite run defense. The Cowboys also smoked the Bucs pass defense, which usually happens against the Bucs. The Eagles run defense isn’t anything special and I fully expect Rico to rip off 4-6 yards per run and see 15+ carries. The Eagles are trotting out Kenny Pickett at QB and I just don’t see a world where the Eagles pull away and force the Cowboys to abandon the run.
Saquon Barkley
I think we sometimes forget how good of a pass catcher Barkley is because he is such a good runner and he hasn’t been used in the air this year. The reason he hasn’t been used is because Jalen Hurts is the QB and they spread the field deep to work to Hurts’ strengths and Hurts usually just runs it as opposed to dumping it off. Well, Pickett sucks and can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards so I fully expect a lot of quick hitters to Barkley in this one with screens or designed swing passes out of the backfield to further ride Barkley in space.
Garrett Wilson
This is squeaky wheel play. After the game last week the frustrations from Wilson boiled over with him being annoyed at his usage. He said “I would love to be involved, I would love to make an impact on the game but if people see it differently, then that’s out of my control.” This comes on the back of Davante Adams vastly out targeting him the last three weeks. This is presumably Rodgers just peppering his boy for one of two reasons. Either he is in fuck it mode and is just having fun or he wants to show the NFL Adams still has it. Over these 3 games Adams has out targeted Wilson 35 to 23 and Adams has a 1st read rate of 41.1% compared to Wilson’s 23.3% rate. Overall, Adams has a 31.5% target share to Wilson’s 69.6% share. Even with this, Wilson has hit his 53 yard mark that we need for this game in all three of these contests and is averaging 74.7 YPG which isn’t that far off of Adams (125 YPG) given the volume gap. The more information that comes out about this whole Jets debacle, I am leaning more and more that Rodgers was a scapegoat in this situation and he is genuinely just an unlikeable guy through the media because of how he is portrayed. Behind the scenes, I do think he is a lot different and his teammates really do like him and he likes them. I think this is a game where the reads are flipped and Wilson sees that jump in 1st read rates and target share. The only concern I could have for Wilson here is if the rain in this game becomes hurricane-like. Keep an eye out for that and if the opportunity does arise, I wouldn’t mind a cash out at even a slight loss because the Jets are going to want to rely heavily on the run if it is pouring.
Breece Hall
I weighed this one heavily and went back and forth if this was going to be an official play or unofficial but I’m all in now. He has hit this mark in six of his last seven games. In these seven games, Breece has taken 72.4% of the snap share and 61.3% of the rushing attempts, averaging 60.9 rush YPG and 4.63 YPC. This includes his Week 15 game where he honestly shouldn’t have even suited up and he only played in a split backfield, seeing only 50% of the snaps and only 39.1% of the rush attempts. If you remove this game from this sample size, he now has hit in each of his last six fully healthy games, averaging a 75.9% snap share and 65.4% of the rush attempts, 66 rush YPG and a 4.77 YPC. Ths optimism for Breece and his workload for Week 17 comes with the fact last week he was a full blown bell cow and came out with no setbacks. He played 79.4% of the snaps and took 70% of the rush attempts, running the ball 14 times for 52 rush yards. To bring it all together, I mentioned above that the weather could potentially play a factor in this game with some heavy, hurricane-like weather. This could end up being light rain, and playing no factor at all. This could be heavy rain with 20+ MPH winds and make the pass tough. Head Coach, Jeff Ulbrich, was asked about this in his press conference today (Friday) and he said:
“Obviously, the worse the weather gets, the more we’ve got to run the ball. We’ve got the offensive line capable of doing it. We’ve got the backfield capable of making it happen, as well. We gotta lean on our run game.”
So we are attacking this two ways. If the rain is fine and normal, enter the squeaky wheel and a double digit target share for Wilson. If the weather is so bad that the Jets have to rely heavily on the run, enter Breece Hall and 20+ rush attempts.
Notes
CAR +8 @ TB – o47.5
Carolina is playing great ball as the season runs out, this team is on the up. I’ll take the points.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
CAR
– +0.06 EPA/Pass (2nd most)
– 5.6% Sack Rate (6th lowest)
– 25.9% QB Pressure Rate (lowest)
– +0.45 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)
– 76.7 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (7th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T8th most)
– 8.17 YPT to TEs (6th most)
– 141.1 YPG to RBs (most)
– 5.1 YPC to RBs (most)
– _0.08 EPA/Rush (2nd most)
– +0.67 RYOE/Att (4th most)
– 69 Explosive Runs (most)
– 2.16 YBCo/Att (most)
TB
– +0.01 EPA/Pass (T8th most)
– 74.7 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (9th most)
– +0.54 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (5th most)
– 159.1 YPG on passes <10 air yards (most)
– 266.93 Pass YPG (4th most)
– 158.5 YPG to WRs (7th most)
– 67.8 YPG to TEs (2nd most)
– 8.55 YPT to TEs (3rd most)
– 1.77 YBCo/Att (5th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Sean Tucker (+425), JT Sanders (+500), Tommy Tremble (+500)
NYJ +10 @ BUF – u46.5
Jets win.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
NYJ
– +0.63 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (most)
– -0.01 EPA/Rush (9th most)
– 3.23 YACo/Att (5th most)
BUF
– +0.01 EPA/Pass (T8th most)
– 6.0% Sack Rate (T10th lowest)
– 139.9 YPG on passes <10 air yards (5th most)
– +0.12 EPA/Passes on passes <10 air yards (4th most)
– 244.27 Pass YPG (7th most)
– 7.9 YPA (T2nd most)
– 8.35 YPT to WRs (7th most)
– 55 Explosive Runs (T8th most)
– 1.64 YBCo/Att (10th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: None
IND @ NYG +7.5 – u40.5
Colts win, Giants cover.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
IND
– 31.4% QB Pressure Rate (8th lowest)
– 44.7 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)
– +0.46 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (10th most)
– 135.7 YPG on passes <10 air yards (T8th most)
– +0.05 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T8th most)
– 7.33 YPA (9th most)
– 8.36 YPT to TEs (6th most)
– 60.73 YPG to TEs (5th most)
– 109.7 YPG to RBs (6th most)
– 62 Explosive Runs (3rd most)
– 3.22 YACo/Att (6th most)
NYG
– +0.02 EPA/Pass (T5th most)
– 49 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (5th most)
– +1.38 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– 7.71 YPA (4th most)
– 8.41 YPT to WRs (5th most)
– 8.37 YPT to TEs (4th most)
– 114.7 YPG to RBs (4th most)
– 4.67 YPC to RBs (8th most)
– 64 Explosive Runs (2nd most)
– 1.65 YBCo/Att (9th most)
– +0.01 EPA/Rush (T6th most)
– 3.19 YACo/Att (8th most)
– +1.25 RYOE/Att (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: None
GB @ MIN -1 – u48.5
Flip a coin. I just want to see Vikings vs Lions next week for the division and 1 seed.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
GB
– 30.5% QB Pressure Rate (5th lowest)
– 77.9 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (6th most)
– 59.43 YPG to TEs (7th most)
MIN
– 47.2 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (8th most)
– +0.38 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (10th most)
– 86.7 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (2nd most)
– 135.7 YPG on passes <10 air yards (T8th most)
– 268.67 Pass YPG (3rd most)
– 190 YPG to WRs (most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Luke Musgrave (+550), Josh Oliver (+600)
LV -1.5 @ NO – u38
Raiders are bad, Saints are worse.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
LV
– +0.04 EPA/Pass (4th most)
– 6.0% Sack Rate (T10th lowest)
– 30.7% QB Pressure Rate (6th lowest)
– +0.52 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (6th most)
– 75.9 YPG on passes 10-19 air yards (8th most)
– +0.06 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (7th most)
– 62.8 YPG to TEs (4th most)
– 8.12 YPT to TEs (7th most)
– +0.71 RYOE/Att (3rd most)
NO
– 48 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– 140 YPG on passes <10 air yards (4th most)
– 258.29 Pass YPG (5th most)
– 173.6 YPG to WRs (4th most)
– 7.96 YPT to TEs (10th most)
– 104.9 YPG to RBs (9th most)
– 4.86 YPC to RBs (3rd most)
– +0.07 EPA/Rush (3rd most)
– 2.10 YBCo/Att (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Ameer Abdullah (+290), Jordan Mims (+390), Kevin Austin Jr. (+400), Dante Pettis (+550), Michael Mayer (+550)
TEN @ JAX -0.5 – u39.5
Jags have been playing tougher of late with a run first offense while peppering BTJ.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
TEN
– 5.9% Sack Rate (T8th lowest)
– 32% QB Pressure Rate (T10th lowest)
– +0.47 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (9th most)
– +0.08 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T5th most)
– 1.70 YBCo/Att (8th most)
JAX
– +0.17 EPA/Pass (most)
– 4.9% Sack Rate (2nd lowest)
– 26.9% QB Pressure Rate (2nd lowest)
– 64.6 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (most)
– +0.89 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– 140.8 YPG on passes <10 air yards (3rd most)
– +0.15 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (Tied most)
– 274.93 Pass YPG (most)
– 8.12 YPA (most)
– 174.3 YPG to WRs (3rd most)
– 9.17 YPT to WRs (most)
– 57 YPG to TEs (10th most)
– 7.99 YPT to TEs (9th most)
– 56 Explosive Runs (T6th most)
– +0.02 EPA/Rush (5th most)
– 1.71 YBCo/Att (7th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Brenton Strange (+425), Luke Farrell (+1200)
MIA -6.5 @ CLE – u37.5
Miami in a groove. They won’t make the playoffs but they are playing like a team fighting for a spot.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
MIA
– 5.7% Sack Rate (7th lowest)
– +0.53 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (6th most)
– 137.1 YPG on passes <10 air yards (6th most)
– 3.73 YACo/Att (most)
– +0.53 RYOE/Att (T9th most)
CLE
– 58 YPG on passes 20+ air yards (2nd most)
– +0.50 EPA/Pass on passes 20+ air yards (7th most)
– 7.36 YPA (7th most)
– 157.7 YPG to WRs (8th most)
– 9.03 YPT to WRs (2nd most)
– 60 Explosive Runs (4th most)
– +0.63 RYOE/Att (5th most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Jaylen Wright (+850)
DAL +7.5 @ PHI – o38.5
Dallas is not only going to cover, they may flat out win.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
DAL
– +0.48 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (8th most)
– 243.27 Pass YPG (T8th most)
– 160.2 YPG to WRs (6th most)
– 8.31 YPT to WRs (9th most)
– 8.3 YPT to TEs (5th most)
– 1.73 YBco/Att (6th most)
– +0.14 EPA/Rush (most)
– +0.58 RYOE/Att (7th most)
PHI
– 31.2@ QB Pressure Rate (7th lowest)
Longshot TD Scorers: Kenny Gainwell (+340), Grant Calcaterra (+475), KaVontae Turpin (+475), Johnny Wilson (+950)
ATL +4 @ WAS – o46.5
I’m flipping a coin on who wins this one which is why I’m taking the points. Penix looked great last week, let’s see if he can keep it up against a tougher defense.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
ATL
– +0.01 EPA/Pass (T8th most)
– 4.6% Sack Rate (lowest)
– 29.2% QB Pressure Rate (3rd lowest)
– +0.62 EPA/Pass on passes 10-19 air yards (2nd most)
– 155.2 YPG to WRs (9th most)
WAS
– +0.04 EPA/Pass on passes <10 air yards (T10th most)
– 113.5 YPG to RBs (5th most)
– 4.95 YPC to RBs (2nd most)
– 57 Explosive Runs (5th most)
– 2.145 YBCo/Att (2nd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: None.
