Wild Card Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! We had another successful betting season, entering the postseason up 112.21u on the year. Below I have a Sheets with everyone who is playing this weekend’s stats since Week 10. After that, as usual, I have my plays and unofficial plays. Please pay particularly more attention to the unofficial plays because I’m waiting some of them out that I really like. The ones specifically on Sunday are ones I like and very well could be added. After that I have the breakdowns and then a brief note on who I think wins and why along with TD scorers for each game. As always, let me know in chat if you have any questions!
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +112.21 Betting Results (2024)
Stats Since Week 10: Wild Card Round Stats (2025)
Official Bets
Saturday
4:30pm
– Ladd McConkey o71.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 3u – Draftkings
– Quentin Johnston o40.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 2u – Fanatics
– Joe Mixon o17.5 Rush Attempts (-114): 2u – Fanduel
– Diontae Johnson o12.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
8:00pm
– Derrick Henry o99.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 5u – Fanduel
– Derrick Henry 1+ TD (-185): 2u – Fanduel
– Isaiah Likely o27.5 Receiving Yards (-113): 3u – Fanduel
– Jaylen Warren o54.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Mike Williams o9.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 5u – MGM
– Mike Williams 25+ Receiving Yards (+285): 1u – Draftkings
– Mike Williams 40+ Receiving Yards (+750): 2u – Draftkings
– Mike Williams Most Receiving Yards (+5000): 1u – Fanduel
Sunday
1pm
– Marvin Mims o38.5 Receiving Yards (-125): 3u – MGM
4pm
– Emanuel Wilson u10.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 3u – Draftkings
– Jayden Reed o1.5 Rushing Yards (-140): 3u – MGM
8pm
– Bucky Irving o84.5 Rushing Yards (-114): 5u – MGM
– Jayden Daniels o48.5 Rushing Yards (-115): 3u – Fanduel
Monday
8pm
– Puka Nacua o88.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 3u – MGM
– Kyren Williams o1.5 Receptions (-154): 3u – Fanduel
Unofficial Bets
– Will Dissly o29.5 Receiving Yards: Texans give up 66 YPG and 7.76 YPT but I’m sticking with Ladd and QJ here. I think Dissly also gets to 30+ though.
– Nico Collins o85.5 Receiving Yards: I want to play this so fucking bad but I’m laying off. I think if they get the ground game going, then Nico will get going. Thats why I’m going with Joe Mixon’s rush attempts.
– Najee Harris u41.5 Rushing Yards: Ravens run defense is amazing between the tackles and I think Warren plays more but there is no sense in double dipping.
– Darnell Washington o.5 Receptions: He was getting more work earlier in the season but there isn’t much data recently to say this is going to hit rather than just throwing shit at a wall and hoping it sticks. He hasn’t run more than 8 routes in a game since Week 12 and only has 1 reception (2 targets) over his last five games. I do think he gets a catch here though.
– Mark Andrews o45.5 Receiving Yards: Prefer Likely.
– Bo Nix o225.5 Passing Yards: I really like Nix in this matchup but I’m concerned with both teams draining the clock and the Bills taking away the big plays. Thus, I’m staying away because I don’t think he will get there.
– Bo Nix o28.5 Rushing Yards: Big game, QBs run but I didn’t find anything that stood out and I didn’t want to force this play.
– Josh Allen o42.5 Rushing Yards: Same concept that QBs run more in big games but nothing stood out. Allen is just that good though where he can overtake games and break long runs. The best comp against this defense was Anthony Richardson going 7/46/1 against the Broncos in Week 15 and honestly AR should have had more. Keep an eye on this one becoming an official play pending how we do Saturday.
– Jaleel McLaughlin o32.5 Rushing Yards: The Bills are allowing the 13th most rushing YPG (92) and 15th most rush YPC (4.28) to opposing backs since Week 10 and I do think Jaleel sees a lot of work in this one.
– Khalil Shakir o54.5 Receiving Yards: The Broncos will blitz and they have Surtain and Moss on the outside. Their weakest spot is inside and in the slot, which is where Shakir usually plays. Shakir is also a big play waiting to happen if Allen gets enough time. My concern is how much Allen’s numbers drop against the blitz, which is one reason why I think the Broncos keep it close and may upset the Bills this weekend.
– Jalen Hurts o37.5 Rushing Yards: QBs run more, Hurts can’t pass well.
– Saquon Barkley o104.5 Rushing Yards: Nothing sticks out that this is a great play which is why I haven’t posted anything for the Eagles yet but I think Barkley gets fed 30+ carries and gets home. The Packers have been great against the run since Week 10, only allowing 65.25 YPG and 3.41 YPC. Barkley isn’t human though and Hurts is probably a little rusty.
– Jayden Reed o44.5 Receiving Yards: I don’t trust Reed. He can, and likely will, lay a total dud but he torched this Eagles defense back in Week 1. It isn’t the same unit and Vic Fangio has them playing exceptional ball but it is worth mentioning.
– AJ Brown o81.5 Receiving Yards: Guy is a stud and can go for 100+ against anyone. My reservations are with Jalen Hurts and him being rusty, costing us a quarter or two as he gets back acclimated.
– Dallas Goedert o36.5 Receiving Yards: Same concept with Hurts being rusty but this is where I think the Eagles exploit the Packers. Since Week 10 they are allowing the 12th most YPG (57.75) and 4th most YPT (8.4) to opposing TEs. Guys like TJ Hockenson (5/68), Sam LaPorta (5/54), Jonnu Smith (10/113), George Kittle (6/82), Cold Kmet (3/42), Brenton Strange (5/59), Trey McBride (8/96), Colby Parkinson (7/52), and Josh Whyle (4/43) have all had success against the Packers this year. Keep an eye on this one going official Sunday morning.
– Brian Robinson u46.5 Rushing Yards: I HATE Robinson on Sunday night. I don’t think he has a good game at all. The Bucs have been the best run defense in the NFL since week 10 allowing only 46 rush YPG and 3.2 YPC to opposing backs. Robinson will get stone walled here
– Austin Ekeler o20.5 Receiving Yards: Ekeler’s back! Rinse and repeat his receiving yards.
– Justin Jefferson o90.5 Receiving Yards: All depends how well Darnold plays.
– TJ Hockenson o3.5 Receptions: I think this is the angle the Vikings go with. Get the ball out quick and since Week 10 the Rams are allowing the 3rd most YPG (69.67) to opposing TEs.
Breakdown
Saturday
Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkey is a freak and has arrived in the NFL. Since Week 11, he has been insane. He is averaging 93.9 YPG and has topped 83 or more receiving yards in six of the seven games over this sample. The only game he didn’t hit was in Week 15 against the Bucs where he caught five of his seven targets for 58 yards and a score, which is still a good showing. He sports a 10.2 aDOT over this timeframe with 28.7% of the Chargers air yards and a 25% TPRR (which is a notch below QJ who is at 26%). He has an elite 2.89 YPRR, a 11.53 YPT mark and a 32.4% 1st read rate.
Quentin Johnston
This has turned into quite the duo as the season progresses. Over the last five weeks, Quentin Johnston has more or less emerged with consistency and ceiling. Over this span he has at least six targets in all five games and 8 or more in 3 of the five. He has hit 45 or more receiving yards in four of the five games and posted his ridiculous 186 yard game last week against the Raiders, catching 13 of the 14 targets in that game. Overall he is averaging 69 receiving yards per game (I know he had 186, bit jaded), a 29% TPRR, a 9.5 aDOT with 26.1% of the team’s air yards, 2.38 YPRR, 8.21 YPT, 1.81 YAC/Rec, and he has even led the team with a 28.4% 1st read rate.
Joe Mixon
The weakness of the LA Chargers is right up the gut to opposing RBs and luckily, that’s exactly what the Texans like to do. The Chargers have the 3rd worst Stuffed Rate (10.1%) between the tackles, allow the 11th most YACo/Att (3.12) and allow the 14th most Rush YPP (4.3). I fully expect these little 2-4 yard plots for Mixon throughout this game and nearly every single 1st down play will be a run in this direction. I don’t envision the Chargers pulling away in this game and I can absolutely see a world where the Texans flat out win. If Mixon has even a little bit of success on these early down runs, the Texans passing game should be able to open up and get Nico Collins the ball and then we’re cookin’ with fire.
Diontae Johnson
There isn’t anything statistical to go off of here as Diontae has only suited up for one Texans game. However, the Texans need Diontae and he can knock this out in one catch, definitely two catches. They keep giving routes to guys like Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie, and Robert Woods. All of whom lack the ability to get open like Diontae. The Chargers allowed the 10th most YPG (165.8) and 8th most YPT (8.73) to opposing WRs since Week 10.
Derrick Henry
Henry is on a tear and this is specifically why the Ravens brought him in, for cold weather, playoff football. Just a short three weeks ago, Derrick Henry slammed this Steelers defense to the tune of 162 rushing yards on 24 carries. Over his last three games since then he has averaged 23.66 and 149 yards per game. He is averaging 6.3 YPC and has a run of 15+ yards on 9.9% of his carries.
Isaiah Likely
I fully expect the Ravens to run a lot more 12-Personnel with Zay Flowers out of the picture here for this game. Also, the Steelers have been bludgeoned by opposing TE of late. Since Week 10 they have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing TEs (69.89). One TE who has hit them up twice over this span was Isaiah Likely in Week 11 when he went 5/4/75/0 and then again in Week 16 he got to them with a 3/3/29/1 mark. I’m fine going with Andrews here if you prefer that but I think Likely gets around the same volume as Andrews so I prefer the lower number.
Jaylen Warren
I eyed up receiving for Warren because I don’t want to attack this Ravens run defense but Warren has had success in both areas. You could also hit Warren o3.5 Receptions here at plus money but I like the duality of Warren breaking a big play through either a run or pass. In the two games he played against the Ravens this year (Week 11 and 16) he accumulated 9/41 and 12/48 rushing marks to go with 4/4/27 and 5/5/44 in the air. He is an explosive back who can rip off a 20+ yard play every single time he touches it. Also, at the end of halves and long down and distance plays, Arthur Smith loves to dial up a draw to Warren to rip off a double digit chunk. I don’t want to miss out on that type of play if it is a hand off or a screen, regardless, we got it built in.
Mike Williams
This is being driven by how low of a line Mike Williams has and how he can hit it in one play. This is driven home by the fact last week he ran 13 routes and ended with only 1 target but he caught that pass for 25 yards. The cherry on top for Williams getting a ladder up to 40+ yards is the back channel chance that he plays over George Pickens. George Pickens completely shit the best in Week 18 and now really isn’t the time to teach him a lesson. This week during his press conference all Mike Tomlin did was talk up Mike Williams after he was asked if Mike Williams could see a larger role in the playoffs with Pickens’ struggles. In his response all he did was talk about how the consistency from a WR opens up the big play opportunities. He went on to go in depth about how they didn’t make enough routine plays and you have to make those plays to make the spectacular plays. It felt like a direct shot at Pickens when he said the word “spectacular” because that is the perfect word to describe the plays that Pickens makes on a regular basis. He ended with how Mike does both with the routine plays and his consistency and he has the big play ability mixed in. So, without much recent volume since Pickens has returned, I’m taking a shot with a low opportunistic number that Mike Williams can pop for a few snags and reach over 40 yards.
Sunday
Marvin Mims
In Mims’ last 7 games, he has averaged 4.4 TPG with 62 receiving yards per game to go with it. While he only has a 34.7% route participation, he has a 33% TPRR meaning that when he’s on the field, he is getting the ball. He has a ridiculous YPRR of 4.67 and a 14 YPT due to this. He has eclipsed 40 receiving yards in six of these seven games with the one time he didn’t hit it, he still had four grabs for 20 yards. While I think the Broncos can keep it close, they will need to be productive on offense (I think they will be) in order to accomplish that and if they don’t, we’ll see a pass heavy offense from the Broncos meaning more routes for Mims thus more YAC opportunities against a defense that focuses on stopping the big play over the top.
Emanuel Wilson
The Eagles are only allowing 73.78 YPG and 3.69 YPC to opposing backs since Week 10. Packers Head Coach, Matt LaFleur, hasn’t mentioned it recently but earlier in the year when talking about limiting Jacobs’ workload he mentioned Wilson and Brooks. The reason he wanted to limit Jacobs was for games like this so Jacobs was as healthy and ready to handle a workload. I think Jacobs takes nearly every snap in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked if Wilson only sees 2-3 snaps overall which will severely limit his ability to get to 10.5 rushing yards.
Jayden Reed
He has hit this mark in three of his last four games and with Christian Watson out and this being a win or go home, I think we see 2-3 carries for Jayden.
Bucky Irving
Bucky has finally emerged the last couple weeks of the season and the Bucs have finally put Rachaad White on ice. Over the last month (4 games) Bucky is 5th in the NFL with 387 rushing yards and is averaging 96.8 per game. He is seeing 17.5 rush attempts per game in this span with 5.53 YPC with 7.1% of these runs going for 15+ yards. He has a 2.80 YACo/Att rate and 2.73 YBCo/Att. He gets to face off against the Washington Commanders run defense, as a home favorite Sunday night. The Commanders have allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game to opposing backs since Week 10 (112.5) and the 10th most YPC (4.57). I fully expect 15+ rush attempts for Bucky in this one and the Bucs to focus on their ground game, which is where the Commanders are poor on the defensive side of the ball.
Jayden Daniels
We can go all the way back to Week 1 when Jayden Daniels played this blitz happy defense as he ran the ball 16 times for 88 rushing yards and two scores. Due to their blitz happy style, every time the Bucs play a rushing QB, they have success against them on the ground in terms of yardage. In Week 3 Bo Nix ran the ball 9 times for 47 yards and a score, Lamar Jackson ran the ball 9 times for 52 yards and a score in Week 7 and even Tommy DeVito ran it 7 times for 32 yards in Week 12. The lone exception here is that Jalen Hurts only accrued 20 rushing yards and a score on 8 attempts. With this being a win or go home game, I expect Jayden to organically run more as well like he has the past few weeks. From Week 12 through Week 17 (he barely played in Week 18) he ran the ball at least 7 times in each context and topped 66 or more rushing yards in four of the five games with the lone game he missed was a 42-19 win over the Titans when he ran the ball 9 times for 34 yards, a game they controlled throughout.
Monday
Puka Nacua
In Puka’s first game back from injury in Week 8 he gashed the Minnesota Vikings for 106 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Vikings Defensive Coordinator, Brian Flores, said they found out only a few hours before the game that Puka was playing and had to adjust their game plan last minute to facilitate it. He went on to say that the Rams absolutely play differently when Puka is in the lineup and he would be more prepared. I bring this up because I want to be transparent that I know this information, and I don’t care. Puka is an absolute beast who has somehow taken his game to the next level. Since that Week 8 matchup, Puka has played in 10 total games, averaging 95.5 yards per game. He has a 38% TPRR with a preposterous 39.5% 1st read rate. He has a 3.65 YPRR and 9.55 YPT with a 6.76 YAC/Rec mark to go with those gaudy numbers. Sean McVay has said time and time again that the offense goes through Puka and he is the ignitor for the offense. He specifies that it is the physicality that Puka plays with and even called him a “war daddy”. Looping back to last year’s playoff game against the Lions defense (even though they were putrid) Puka was the ignitor for the offense in that game and ended with nine snags for 181 yards and a score. I fully expect 10+ targets for Puka in this game with a pass happy game script from Sean McVay and this Rams offense.
Kyren Williams
The way to beat the Vikings blitz heavy defense is through the air as they sport one of the better run defenses in the NFL. The Rams combated this back in Week 8 by peppering Kyren Williams with quick passes out of the backfield as if they were extended runs if their immediate downfield play wasn’t there. Kyren walked away with 7 targets, catching five of them for 19 receiving yards. As if he wouldn’t have seen a near 100% workload before, he certainly will in this one. Backup RB, Blake Corum, broke his forearm in the Rams Week 18 matchup against the Seahawks. So on top of everything, I would be shocked if Kyren didn’t see a 95%+ snap share in this one, giving him even more opportunity to see 3+ targets.
Notes
LAC @ HOU +3 – o42.5
This one really comes down to if the Texans can run the ball or not and I think they have success. The Texans DL should have success against the Chargers OL but if they don’t, Herbert is going to have an insane game. At the end of the day, I think both offenses do move the ball but I have a gut feeling the Texans come out on top in this one. It all comes down to having even minimal success running the ball on early downs for the Texans. If they can’t, they’re cooked.
TD Scorers: Joe Mixon (-125), Ladd McConkey (+150), Will Dissly (+350), Justin Herbert (+450), Diontae Johnson (+550), Cade Stover (+1100)
PIT + 10 @ BAL – o43.5
On paper, the Ravens should roll, but that is why we play. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if the Steelers win this game, we’ve all seen this story play out. Anytime teams play each other for the 3rd time, weird shit happens. If the Steelers can move the chains and convert FGs into TDs, they have a shot to keep up with Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.
TD Scorers: Derrick Henry (-210), Mark Andrews (+150), Isaiah Likely (+275), Jaylen Warren (+370), Mike Williams (+750), Justin Fields (+750), Darnell Washington (+1300), Cordarrelle Patterson (+1300)
DEN +9 @ BUF – o46.5
I think the Broncos can pull off the unthinkable on Sunday afternoon. I give the coaching advantage in this game to the Broncos relatively easily with SP over McDermott and Vance Joseph vastly over Joe Brady. The Broncos strengths on offense (screens, OL, running between the tackle, crossers) match up well against the Bills deep cover 2 defense and lack of interior presence. It is really hard to bet against Josh Allen but he has been known to have a turnover or two in the red zone. If the Bills cna establish a run and not turn the ball over, they win.
TD Scorers: James Cook (-135), Josh Allen (-125), Marvin Mims (+240), Bo Nix (+370), Audric Estime (+390), Devaugh Vele (+450), Nate Adkins (+1600), Michael Burton (+2000)
GB @ PHI -4.5 – u45.5
I don’t think Jordan Love is 100% and as long as Jalen Hurts plays, the Eagles will easily win this game. The Eagles have by far the best roster and are well rested.
Longshot TD Scorers: Saquon Barkley (-175), Jalen Hurts (-125), Jayden Reed (+215), Grant Calcaterra (+800)
WAS @ TB -3 – u50.5
I think the Bucs handle the Commanders in this one. The Bucs matchup well with their defense against the Commanders offense. The Commanders offense goes as the running game goes and the Bucs have a top 5, if not the best, rush defense in the NFL. They have only allowed 46 Rush YPG and 3.2 YPC to opposing backs since Week 10. If the Commanders can’t establish that ground game and have methodical drives, Jayden Daniels is going to have to win it with his arm against a blitz-happy defense that has the 8th best pressure rate (35.8%) this year. The Bucs should have absolutely no issue controlling the ground on the other end and if they can convert their drives into TDs (they should) they will walk away with this one.
Longshot TD Scorers: Bucky Irving (-145), Terry McLaurin (+110), Jayden Daniels (+185), Zach Ertz (+255), Austin Ekeler (+275), Devin Culp (+1000)
MIN @ LAR +1 – u47.5
Maybe I can’t get Sam Darnold completely collapsing at the first sight of advertising out of my head but I think the Rams handle the Vikings here. The Rams are well rested and coaching advantages are more or less chucked out the window here. If Sam Darnold continues to see ghosts in big moments it will not only cost the Vikings a win in this game but cost him millions in the off-season.
Longshot TD Scorers: Kyren Williams (-130), Justin Jefferson (-120), Puka Nacua (+115), TJ Hockenson (+200), Demarcus Robinson (+370), Jalen Nailor (+500), Josh Oliver (+950)
