Week 14 TNF Betting Breakdown
Hey what’s up everyone! I’ll be breaking down specific bets that I like and honing in on a few things. The top of this article will be my official bets followed by an in depth breakdown on why I am playing those bets. At the bottom I will have Notes for each game with a quick line or two on who I think wins, who covers, if it goes over or under, my unofficial plays, and my favorite longshot TD scorers from the game. The threshold for the TD suggestions will be +250 or longer odds and everything will be pulled from Draftkings.
NOTE: Please remember that I am betting with the notion we are up 195.27u. If you are not in the same spot, scale down. I’m at the point where I’m playing twice as heavy per bet due to this, just stacking day on top of day. If units are tighter for you, scale down your risk.
1u -> 2u
2u -> 3u
3u -> 5u
5u -> 10u
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Disclosure: How I bet
Betting log: +195.27 Betting Results (2024)
Official Bets
– Jared Goff o240.5 Passing Yards (-115): 5u – Fanatics
– Amon-Ra St. Brown o65.5 Receiving Yards (-120): 10u – Fanatics
– Amon-Ra St. Brown 110+ Receiving Yards (+410): 1u – Caesars
– Amon-Ra St. Brown 120+ Receiving Yards (+575): 1u – Caesars
– Amon-Ra St. Brown 130+ Receiving Yards (+800): 2u – Caesars
Unofficial Bets
– Jayden Reed o56.5 Receiving Yards: This line steamed up. I like Reed and this spot but it is impossible to distinguish any of these WRs from the other through my process and we learned that the hard way Thanksgiving night when I took a stab at Reed and Melton with both of them clean reverse sweeping. I want to be in on this offense but I just can’t pin down where with how I attack games.
– Josh Jacobs o67.5 Rushing Yards: Another one that steamed up almost 10 yards. I just can’t bet against this Lions Run D even though they haven’t played as well this year without Aidan Hutchinson.
– Tim Patrick o23.5 Receiving Yards: Closest one of these unofficial to becoming official. Patrick has hit this mark in his last three games and in six of his last night. I just don’t want to attack the perimeter here and rely on the low, efficient volume so I’m sticking with Goff and ARSB. I think Patrick gets there though.
Breakdown
Jared Goff & Amon-Ra St. Brown
I’m not going to waste my time with this play as it is almost an auto bet for me. The Packers present a plus matchup, allowing the 9th most YPG on passes <10 air yards (136.5), and 11th most YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (75.7). This is Goff’s bread and butter and one of the main reasons is because the Packers run cover 2 at the 4th highest rate in the NFL. Over the last five games opposing QBs have averaged 236.2 passing YPG against the Packers and they have allowed a +0.07 EPA/Pass. Three of the five opponents threw for 231 or more yards with Trevor Lawrence hitting 308 in Week 8, Caleb Williams 231 in Week 11, and Tua Tagovailoa 365 in Week 13. The two QBs who did not hit the mark was Jared Goff in Week 9 at home when they had high winds and Goff had a 4 ADOT, even though he got to 145 on 22 attempts, and in Week 12 they held backup Brandon Allen to 199 yards on 29 pass attempts. The Packers don’t want to let up the big play and they’ll sacrifice the short to intermediate part of the field, specifically the middle part, which is where Goff makes his money and where ARSB is at his best.
Notes
GB +3.5 @ DET – o51.5
Detroit’s defense is depleted and we should see some major regression for them as the season prolongs.
Noteworthy Defensive Stats:
GB
– 31% QB Pressure Rate (8th lowest)
– 75.7 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (11th most)
– 136.5 YPG on passes <10 air yards (9th most)
– 63.17 YPG to TEs (6th most)
DET
– 6.1% Sack Rate (T9th lowest)
– 243.67 Pass YPG (8th most)
– 76.7 YPG on passes 11-20 air yards (9th most)
– 187.8 YPG to WRs (most)
– 2.02 YBCo/Att (3rd most)
Longshot TD Scorers: Dontayvion Wicks (+250), Tim Patrick (+400), Bo Melton (+700), Shane Zylstra (+1700)
